all the wailing/gnashing of teeth about this guy's complex 'scouting of the area' is playing right into his plan, to wit:
a) a shooter who's quite familiar with his weapon and general tactics will need to expend little mental effort to keep those aspects squared away during/after a shoot;
b) relative familiarity with road layout would only be necessary in high population urban areas if he/she planned on e&e via side streets/back roads;
c) given that most major highway commerce interchanges such as that in ashland are relatively similar, short-term memory of where one is/needs to go afterwards would well suffice to e&e;
d) a non-local would be wisest, in a relatively rural setting such as ashland, to avoid back roads, as the chance of standing out would be exponentially higher than on, say, a side street in falls church;
e) especially in light of (a)&(c) above, our boy needed only to toodle on down 95, pick an exit based on whatever criteria is floatin' his boat and, esp. at night, spot a good shooting stand in less than five minutes of recon;
f) imo, this guy was back on 95 within one minute of taking his shot, and halfway to dc by the time the local roadblocks went up around ashland;
g) bottom line here is that it's not taking him nearly as loong to scope these sites out (pardon the unintended pun) as the 'accepted wisdom' seems to believe;
h) if there's a 'white van' involved, it's merely as a completely clean diversionary tactic, while the shooter slides on through in a totally non-descript sedan ...
$0.02
1. Michael's just happens to be in all these little plaza's. The name itself means nothing. It is the layout of the Plaza with the Greenspaces, adjoining parking lots and numerous vehicle exits that is the criteria.
2. The white van is a "tunnel vision" item. After performing some visual parking lot testing, I found that white vans are the "most" visible (unbelievably so), red cars were next, dark cars are almost indistinguishable as to color.
3. The Tarot card...I'm not even convinced that it was left by the sniper. The info on the .223 was out at the time and it's 9 shots into the scenario. Sounds like a nasty kid in the neighborhood being a smarta**. (But I don't know what the police know.)
From the few sites we know about...The sniper is on foot for part of this at least. He has a spotter BEHIND him.
When the shot is fired, he watches the sniper walk out. The spotter starts his car and goes to another parking lot for a pickup and drives into a residential area using the back roads and never getting on the main drags.
He has safe haven somewhere near Fredericksburg. Virginia is into the hunting season, yes? Guys in camoflage would not be an outstanding feature down there but would be up north??
Who knows! Just rambling thoughts.
Sac
1) The shooter prefers parking lots and gas stations;WHAT TO LOOK FOR: A white Astrovan with ladder rack parking at the back of a parking lot even though spaces are available closer in. The front of the van would be facing the intended target, but be slightly off-center from the parking aisle - or parked slightly askew - so that the shooter could sit in the back corner of the van and have a line of sight through one of the front side windows. If you see a scenario like this, call police ASAP with the tag number and cautiously follow the vehicle if it leaves.2) A clean line of sight is required for a successful hit - that means he has to line up to shoot directly down the aisle of a parking lot (i.e., it is impossible to shoot across parked cars) and preferably the aisle that lines up with the store's exit OR the parking space is across the street from a gas station from an elevated position to avoid shooting "through" traffic;
3) All of the aerial photos Antivenom has posted have parking spaces which are parallel to the line of sight required for an unobstructed shot;
4) It would be more difficult and riskier to exit a vehicle with weapon en tote;
5) Shooting from within the vehicle would shorten the time required to exit the scene;
6) Shooting from the back of the van through either the driver's side or passenger side window would aid in the concealment of the muzzle flash - particularly at night;
7) A semi-automatic rifle ejects the casing a considerable distance - and the casing would be difficult to quickly locate in a wooded environment and/or at night;
8) The only shell casing known to have been found was at Tasker where the shooter(s) must have exited the vehicle;
9) A catcher bag can be used to retain the ejecting shell casing - but at Tasker, wasn't used;
10) The murderer is an equal opportunity killer - selecting his targets based on opportunity and location rather than ethnicity or gender;
11) The taskforce does not readily release information about the investigation, but they HAVE released composites of the vehicles - it is therefore reasonable to assume that LE is convinced that the driver uses a White Astrovan with ladder rack and/or a white box truck;
12) The shooter has escaped three massive dragnets - it is therefore reasonable to assume he is not using the convenient main Interstates - or is using them, but heading away from DC following the shootings. This is particularly true given last night's dragnet;