Posted on 10/18/2002 11:47:06 AM PDT by cogitator
Kilimanjaro's Ice Fields Are Melting Away
WASHINGTON, DC, October 17, 2002 (ENS) - Once described by author Ernest Hemingway to be "as wide as all the world," the ice fields atop Mount Kilimanjaro have now retreated to their lowest surface extent in the past 12,000 years and could vanish within the next two decades, new research suggests.
The findings, based on the first ever climate history of Africa using ice core analysis, are all the more troubling, scientists say, because these glaciers provide one of the few archives of historical climate change in the tropics, where long ice core records are rare.
(caption) The snowcaps on the icy peak of Kilimanjaro are shrinking. (Photo by Rick Thomson, courtesy Thomson Safaris)
The white peak of Kilimanjaro, which at 5,895 meters (19,341 feet) is the highest point in Africa, has long been one of the continent's most recognizable landmarks. However, over the last two years, research has indicated that Kilimanjaro's glaciers are retreating at an unprecedented rate, shrinking by almost 80 percent since 1912.
Now new findings published today in the journal "Science" indicate the glaciers are melting at a rate of about one-half meter (1.6 feet) per year, supporting previous predictions that, if current climate conditions continue, the ice caps will vanish by 2020.
"We found that the summit in the ice fields has lowered by at least 17 meters since 1962," said Lonnie Thompson, professor of geological studies at Ohio State University and lead author of the "Science" study.
The margin of Kilimanjaro's northern ice field, Thompson said, has retreated more than two meters (6.6 feet) in the last two years.
"That's more than two meters' worth of ice lost from a wall 50 meters high that's an enormous amount of ice," said Thompson, who heads a National Science Foundation funded research team that has been tracking the glacial retreat since 2000.
Thompson and his colleagues analyzed six ice cores retrieved from Kilimanjaro in 2000. The cores revealed that the region around the mountain has experienced several short term climate changes since the glaciers first formed 11,700 years ago.
The ice cores indicated that around 9,500 years ago, Lake Chad, now Africa's fourth largest body of water, spanned an area greater than the Caspian Sea. Evidence also surfaced of a cold spell on the continent that lasted from about 1270 AD to 1850 AD.
Core composition also suggested that at least three prolonged periods of drought have hit Africa over the past 12 millennia. The last of these massive droughts occurred 4,000 years ago and lasted for three centuries, threatening the rule of the Pharaohs and transforming the Sahara Desert into the barren region it is today, Thompson said.
During that last drought, the ice fields of Kilimanjaro covered less surface than they do today an area now estimated at about 2.6 square kilometers (one square mile), said Douglas Hardy, a geoscientist with the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and coauthor of the "Science" report.
(Caption) Ice cores, like this one from the Dasuopu Glacier in the Himalayas, provide an invaluable history of climate changes. (Photo by Lonnie Thompson)
While these findings indicate that Kilimanjaro's glaciers have shrunk before, "the current rate of change is what's unprecedented," Hardy explained.
"In 20 years, we may reach a point where for the first time in 12,000 years there may not be any ice on the mountain," Hardy said. "It's a time of incredible change for these glaciers."
Hardy said this rate of change is consistent with global warming trends seen on other glaciers around the world. But he worries that Kilimanjaro has become an inappropriate poster child for the greenhouse gas effect.
Hardy cautions that the available evidence from satellites, aerial maps and temperature readings is too thin to link global warming conclusively to Kilimanjaro's melting glaciers. Other factors, such as atmospheric humidity and changes in precipitation, might also be at play.
"It's unfortunate for the credibility of science to use Kilimanjaro as the symbol of global warming when we have much better examples in the world," Hardy said.
Thompson agreed, but stressed that Kilimanjaro's vanishing ice fields should be viewed as part of a larger trend of global climate change currently underway that "should be taken very seriously."
The fresh water accumulates in the ocean and inhibits the "warm conveyor" that circulates ocean heat, resulting in sufficient weather change in the northern hemisphere to trigger an ice age....keep locked, loaded and warm
So where was the ice then?
My guess is that Atlantis sank taking all their SUVs and other creature comforts with them allowing Gaia time to cool off a bit.
That's incorrect; the Earth is getting warmer. The amount of "getting warmer" that is due to human activities is uncertain, but human activities are probably responsible for some of this warming.
I report what the scientists are saying about climate and the environment because it's important to know what scientists are saying about climate and the environment.
My math tells me that the ice cap would be about 28.8 feet at this time... WOW Find the truth at www.evirowacko.com
Global Warming Petition
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind. There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.
Here are just the "A" names from the petition.
Earl Aagaard, PhD, Roger L Aamodt, PhD, M Robert Aaron, Ralph F Abate, Hamed Abbas, PhD, Reza Abbaschian, PhD, Paul Abbett, Wyatt E Abbitt III, David M Abbott Jr, Ursula K Abbott, PhD, Will S Abbott, Riaz F. Abdulla, PhD, J M Abell, Philip H Abelson, PhD, Wayne Aben, Grady Ables, Earl A Abrahamson, PhD, John Abrams, David Acerni, J Wayne Achee, Hans J. Achemann, D T Achord, PhD, Ernest Achterberg, Gene Ackerman, John R Ackerman, William Ackerman, Richard E. Ackermann, Terry Ackman, Donald O Acrey, Lee Actor, Robert K Adair, PhD, Brian Adam, PhD, Chris Adam, John A Adam, PhD, Adams, Arthur Adams, Brook Adams, Charles K Adams, Craig Adams, Daniel Adams, PhD, Daniel B Adams Jr, Dell Adams, Donald Adams, Donald S Adams, Eugene Adams, Gail D Adams, PhD, George B Adams, PhD, Gerald J Adams, PhD, Gregory Adams, Henry Adams, Henry Adams, Howard Adams, James W Adams, Jim Adadms, John Adams, John E Adams, PhD, Kent A. Adams, Leonard C A Adams, PhD, Louis W Adams, PhD, Michael P Adams, Neil Adams, PhD, Opal Adams, Peter Adams, Phillip Adams, PhD, Richard E Adams, Richard L Adams, Robert F Adams, Roy B Adams, Roy M Adams, PhD, Steve W Adams, Walter Adams, William D Adams, William M Adams, PhD, William W Adams, Wilton Adams, PhD, Wilton T Adams, PhD, Wm J Adams, George Adcock, Rusty Adcock, MD, Lionel P Adda, PhD, Albert W Addington, Tim Addington, Bill Addison, John K Addy, PhD, C William Ade, Albert H Adelman, PhD, Barnet R Adelman, L A Adkins, Michael F Adkins, Ronald A Adkins, PhD, T Adkins, Norman Adler, PhD, Lt Col Jacques J Adnet, Anthrony J Adrignolo, PhD, Harry Adrounie, PhD, Richard A Adsero, Steven E Aeschbach, Stephen Affleck, PhD, Siegfried Aftergut, PhD, Jack Agan, Larry D Agenbroad, PhD, Sven Agerbek, George Aggen, PhD, Norman A Aggon, Vincent Agnello, MD, Kenneth Agnes, Mark Agnew, M C Agress, Jorge T Aguinadlo, Roy Ahalt, Robert Aharonov, Richard Ahern, Phillip Ahlberg, Kevin Ahlborg, Mark Ahlert, Terry Ahlquist, Mumtaz Ahmed, PhD, Rafique Ahmed, PhD, Robert Ahokas, PhD, H W Ahrenholz, Edward Ahrens, Rolland W Ahrens, PhD, Robert M Ahring, PhD, John J Aiello, Joseph P. Aiello, MD, S F Aiello, Phil Aigner, Brian R Ainley, Ainsworth, Alfred Ainsworth III, E Bud Ainsworth, Oscar R Ainsworth, PhD, S Aisenberg, PhD, David J Akers, Linda Akers, Willie Akers, Wayne Henry Akeson, MD, Thane Akins, Korkor Akoto, Akram, PhD, John Alai, Robert J Alaimo, PhD, Greg Alan, Vincent M Albanese, A Henry Albaugh, Ed Alberding, Timothy A Albers, MD, Edward Albert, Eric K Albert, PhD, Wm L Albert, James L Alberta, Mark W Albertsen, Frank Addison Albini, PhD, D Douglas Albrecht, Robert Albrecht, Rudolph C Albrecht, Fred R Albright, PhD, James C Albright, PhD, Robert Lee Albright, PhD, Tad B Albright, Marcus Albro, Allwyn Albuquerque, Ernest C Alcaraz, PhD, Garrett D Alcorn, MD, Luis Aldecoa, Frank Alder, Ronald G Alderfer, PhD, Thomas Alderson, PhD, Bill Aldrich, Franklin D Aldrich, PhD, Richard J Aldrich, PhD, Samuel Aldrich, PhD, Samuel Aldrich, PhD, David Aldridge, Robert Aldridge, Wm M Baldwin, Peter C Alecxih Sr, PhD, Russell J Alameda Jr, Perry B Alers, PhD, Steven J Alessandro, Alex F Alessandrini, Joe Alex, Danrick Alexander, Dave Alexander, Harold R Alexander, Ira Alexander, James F Alexander Jr, John C Alexander, Michael L Alexander, Nelson Alexander, Robert Alexander, Moorad Alexanian, PhD, Rex Alford, Robert Alford, Roger C Alig, PhD, R Allahyari, PhD, Dennis Allard, Joel Alldredge, Arly Allen, Belle Allen, Charles C Allen, Christopher G Allen, Clayton H Allen, PhD, David Allen, PhD, Emma G Allen, PhD, Eric R Allen, PhD, F. J. Allen, James Allen, PhD, John L Allen, Kenneth Allen, Merrill P Allen, Mike R Allen, PhD, Pampselo Allen, Randall Allen, Robert Allen, MD, Robert C Allen, Roger B Allen, PhD, Thomas H Allen, PhD, William Allen, William Allen, Robert T Van Aller, PhD, Carl Allesandro, Jonathan Alley, MD, Robt W Allgood, Ronald Alli, Craig Allison, Ronald C Allison, MD, Terry Allison, Kevin E Allisonn, John J Allport, PhD, Albert L Allred, PhD, Ivan D Allred Jr, Victor D Allred, PhD, Arthur W Allsop, Gary L Allurg, MD, R A Allwein, Frank M Almeter, PhD, Richard E Almy, Patrick Aloutto, PhD, James Aloye, Reevis S Alphin, PhD, A Frank Alsobrook, John Alsop, PhD, Sally Alston, Charles Alt, Vincent O Altemose, Timothy Altier, David Altman, PhD, Melvyn R Altman, PhD, Ronny G Altman, Tracy Altman, PhD, Peter C Altner, MD, Edward E Altshuler, PhD, Burton M Altura, PhD, Antonio Alvarez, Byron Alvey, Vern Always, Bradley A Aman, David Saint Amand, Charles D Amata, PhD, Charles Amateis, Ronald Amberger, PhD, Leo E Amborski, PhD, Maynard Amdahl, Donald F Amend, PhD, Marvin E Ament, Richard Amerling, MD, Robert C Amero, Edward J Ames III, Martin Ames, Richard Ames, MD, Michael Amick, Duane R Amlee, A S Ammar, Moris Amon, PhD, Pierre Saiut- Amond, PhD, Richard D Amori, Bonnie Amos, PhD, Dewey H Amos, PhD, J Reeves Ampsco, A Amr, PhD, Desiree Armstrong, PhD, Fred Amsler, MD, Adolph L Amundson, James Amy, Sal A Anazalone, Ernest J Andberg, G Robt D Andborn, John Anders, MD, Donald A Andersen, PhD, Gene P Andersen, Randall H Andersen, Terrell Andersen, PhD, Torben B Andersen, PhD, Wilford H Andersen, PhD, A E Anderson, Allan C Anderson, Anderson, Arthur G Anderson, PhD, Berard J Anderson, PhD, Bruce Anderson, Bruce M Anderson, C M Anderson Jr, Carol Anderson, Chris Anderson, Cristopher Anderson, David A Anderson, David Anderson, MD, David Anderson, David O. Anderson, PhD, David R Anderson, PhD, Donald Hervin Anderson, PhD, Donald N Anderson, PhD, Douglas J. Anderson, MD, Elmer Anderson, PhD, Gerald L Anderson, Glenn L Anderson, Greg Anderson, Harrison C Anderson, MD, HC Anderson, Ingrid Anderson, PhD, J H Anderson, James Anderson, James Anderson, James R Anderson, James R Anderson, Janis W Anderson, Jimmy D Anderson, Joel Anderson, John Anderson, PhD, John O Anderson, Julia W Anderson, PhD, Keith Anderson, Ken Anderson, Kenneth E Anderson, Kerry Anderson, Larry Anderson, PhD, Larry D Anderson, Leif H Anderson, Lowell R Anderson, Mark A Anderson, Mary Anderson, Mitchell Anderson, Nathan Anderson, Orson L Anderson, PhD, P Jennings Anderson, Paul Anderson, Percy Anderson, R L Anderson, Reece B Anderson, Richard A Anderson, PhD, Richard C Anderson, Robert E Anderson, Robt J Anderson, MD, Roger O Anderson, Roy Anderson, Russell Anderson, Staren D Anderson, Thomas Anderson, Thomas Anderson, PhD, Thornton Anderson, Tom Anderson, Warren R Anderson, Deborah Anderstrom, John R Andrade, PhD, Manuel Andrade, Ivan Andrasik, Gilbert M. Andreen, Douglas Andress, James Andrew, James F Andrew, PhD, Lawrence L Andrew, Al Andrews, PhD, Frederick Andrews, Harry N Andrews, John S Andrews, PhD, Marion Andrews, Mel Andrews, Raynal W Andrews, Russell S Andrews, PhD, Louis Andros, Mb Andrus, PhD, Alfredo Ang, PhD, Robert E Angel, Ernest F Angelicola, Vincent Angelo, DDS, Francis M Angeloni, PhD, Steven T Angely, Claude B Anger, Robert Angevine, Ernest Angino, PhD, Kevin P Ankenbrand, David Arnold, Gregory Antal, Bradley C Anthanaitis, PhD, John Anthes, PhD, Eliazbeth Anthony, PhD, Jack R Anthony, Lee S Anthony, PhD, Robt D Anthony, Dan Antonescu-Wolf, MD, Willford Antonson, Sanford Apfelroth, PhD, Carl Apicella, Bruce W Apland, David R Appel, Daniel Appell, Norman Apperson, W H Appich Jr, Lynn Apple, PhD, Robert Apple, Alan Appleby, PhD, Robert H Appleby, Donald Applegate, DVM, Lowell N Applegate, John Applegath, Herbert S Appleman, Morris H Aprison, PhD, Charles Apter, PhD, Richard E Apuzzo Jr, J B Aquilla, MD, Ara Arabyan, PhD, Howard Arbaugh, Jaime Arbona-Fazzi, PhD, John Arcadi, MD, Ed Arce, John Arch, Amber G Archer, Bill Archer, Diane M. Archer, William Archer, Dave Archibald, Philip Archibald, Robert Archibald, John Archie, William Ard, William Bryant Ard, PhD, Christopher Arend, Dennis Arfmann, Harold V Argo, PhD, Guvenc Argon, Lawrence Ariano, MD, William Arion, PhD, Z S Ariyan, PhD, Gertrude Armbauster, PhD, Richard Armentrout, PhD, Walt Armer, Walter D Armer, Baxter H Armstrong, PhD, Clifford Armstrong, Glenn Armstrong, James Armstrong, James C Armstrong, PhD, Joseph C. Armstrong, PhD, Lou Armstrong, Mark Armstrong, Marvin D Armstrong, PhD, Robert L Armstrong, PhD, Robert Emile Arnal, PhD, Dana Arndt, Gregory Arndt, Jerome Arnett, MD, Ross Arnett, Charles Arney, Philip J Arnholt, PhD, C Arnold, Charles Arnold, PhD, Herbert K Arnold, John Arnold, Lance L Arnold, Randall W Arnold, Robert Arnold Jr, DVM, Rosemary Arnold, Timothy Arnold, Wm A Arnold, PhD, Lester C Arnwine, Casper J Aronson, Seymour Aronson, PhD, Adrian L Arp, PhD, Charles H Arrington, PhD, Dale E Arrington, PhD, Clement R Arrison, Jose J D Arruda, PhD, Arsate, Holly Arterbury, Emerson O Mc Arthur III, James Arthur, PhD, Richard Arthur, Charles G Artinian, MD, Max Artusy, PhD, A G Ash, Edward V Ashburn, Randolph Ashby, PhD, A Ashley, PhD, Holt Ashley, PhD, Warren C Ashley, PhD, Alvin Ashman, Jerome P Ashman, Walter R Ashwil, Walter Ashwill, Bob Ashworth, Monroe Ashworth, Owen Ashworth, Robert Ashworth, Orv Askeland, Ann Askew, Tom W Asmus, PhD, Winifred Alice Asprey, PhD, Mike Assad, Adel Assaf, George Aster, R Lee Aston, PhD, Jim Atchison, Curtis L. Atchley, Robert Aten, PhD, James Athanasion, James Athans, Robert D Athey Jr, PhD, Robert Douglas Athey, PhD, Arthur C Atkins, John Atkinson, John P Atkinson, MD, Larry Atkinson, Lynn Atkinson, Matt Atkinson, Stanley Atnipp, Sharon M Attaway, Ronald Attig, Leonardo D Attorre, William J Attwooll, Mark Atwood, PhD, Robt C Atwood, Darrel D Auch, James C Auckland, Walter Auclair, PhD, Berk Aucoin, W H Audley, Louis A Auerbach, Keith H Aufderheide, PhD, Wm R Aufricht, Dale Augenstein, PhD, J Augspurger, PhD, Frederick N Aukeman, Boris Auksmann, PhD, C M Aulick, PhD, Luther Aull, PhD, Bruce S Ault, PhD, John B Aultmann Jr, Henry S Aurand, Richard Aurand, Alfred E Austin, PhD, Carl Fulton Austin, PhD, D Austin, P E, Harold Austin, Michael N Austin, Robert L Austin, Ward Austin, William H Austin, Canan Avela, William Avera, Victor H Averbach, PhD, Mark Avereit, Jon R Averhoff, Frank Averill, PhD, Alex Avery, Donald Avery, Michael E Avery, Philip Avery, Kenneth Avicola, Arthur J Avila, Joseph Avruch, MD, M Friedman Axler, Mark Axtell, William P Aycock, George L Ayer, Walton Ayer, Robert C Ayers, PhD, Maynard F Ayler, William Aylor, John H Ayme, Bruce Ayres, T G Ayres, Dany Ayseur, Alison M Azar, Max Azevedo
I think I'll go for a drive in my SUV.
The word "convincing" is the pivotal qualifier in this arguement. That means its all a matter of opinion and, well frankly "whose side yar on"
Why not? Why is it illogical that the increasing amount of gases put into the atmosphere by human activities that affect the Earth's radiative balance should not have something to do with climate change? Why is it illogical that the conversion of forests to farms, which changes the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, should not have an effect?
There are a lot of human activities that can have an affect on climate. Why do you think there hasn't been any human-related effect?
Attitudes like that don't foster fear and create funding.
What about the 19,000 scientists who claim we should not worry about global warming?
Fiction: There is no scientific consensus on climate change. Just look at the 19,000 scientists who signed on to the Global Warming Petition Project.
Fact: In the spring of 1998, mailboxes of US scientists flooded with packet from the "Global Warming Petition Project," including a reprint of a Wall Street Journal op-ed "Science has spoken: Global Warming Is a Myth," a copy of a faux scientific article claiming that "increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have no deleterious effects upon global climate," a short letter signed by past-president National Academy of Sciences, Frederick Seitz, and a short petition calling for the rejection of the Kyoto Protocol on the grounds that a reduction in carbon dioxide "would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind." The sponsor, little-known Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, tried to beguile unsuspecting scientists into believing that this packet had originated from the National Academy of the Sciences, both by referencing Seitz's past involvement with the NAS and with an article formatted to look as if it was a published article in the Academy's Proceedings, which it was not. The NAS quickly distanced itself from the petition project, issuing a statement saying, "the petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." The petition project was a deliberate attempt to mislead scientists and to rally them in an attempt to undermine support for the Kyoto Protocol. The petition was not based on a review of the science of global climate change, nor were its signers experts in the field of climate science. In fact, the only criterion for signing the petition was a bachelor's degree in science. The petition resurfaced in early 2001 in a renewed attempt to undermine international climate treaty negotiations.
NOW: I only counter the petition names with this information because polls and petitions are not how questions are addressed in science. Scientists publish papers and results; other scientists review those papers and determine if they are accurate; further studies refine or rebut original conclusions; and thus is a better understanding of the question and its answer(s) achieved. One or 10,000 signatures indicating opinion have nothing to do with the actual reality and truth of scientific insight.
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