Math Used in Hunt for Md. Sniper

AP via Yahoo ^ | Mon Oct 7, 4:10 PM ET | By JIM KRANE, AP Technology Writer

[11th_VA]

Investigators are trying to zero in on the Washington-area sniper with a computerized technique known as geographic profiling.

Geographic profiling, pioneered more than a decade ago by former Vancouver Police detective Kim Rossmo, works on the theory that except for a small buffer zone around their homes, criminals tend to hunt victims in areas they are familiar with.

Investigators in the Maryland case have asked Rossmo to help out.

Geo-profilers triangulate the likely home of the killer by analyzing such locations as the sites of the attacks and places where bodies were dumped. With each killing, more clues are entered into the computer.

"The more killings you have, the better it works," said Andreas Olligschlaeger, president of TruNorth Data Systems, which makes crime analysis software. "It's an unfortunate fact. More people have to die to get a better chance of capturing the killer."

While doing doctoral research, Rossmo developed a mathematical algorithm that was used as the basis for geo-profiling software now sold by the Vancouver company Environmental Criminology Research Inc. Only a few police investigators around the world have been trained on the software, which relies heavily on a detective's intuition.

The software crunches location data and other clues to create a "jeopardy surface" — what looks like a color-coded topographical map that highlights the suspect's likeliest location.

Typically, if police believe a killer lives in a 10-square-mile area, Rossmo's tool can narrow that down to a few blocks.

Rossmo and the few geo-profilers now using his methods claim to have helped solve about half of the 450 cases they have studied.

Among those he has helped on were serial rape cases in Lafayette, La., and Mississuaga, Ontario, that were solved. Rossmo now heads research at the Police Foundation in Washington, D.C.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Ontario police and federal law agencies in Germany, Britain, Australia use the Vancouver company's geo-profiling software, according to ECRI.

[11th_VA]

Like playing chess with a computer ?

[Sacajaweau]

Logic and instinct...not really anything new...the old pin on a map routine. But unlike ordinary criminals, these guys are "tactical"...Run the dogs through the U of MD campus.

Sac

[11th_VA]

U of MD campus.

I hpoe its not on his list, but after hearing a profiler tonight, I fear it will be.

Can you train a dog to retain a specific scent? They had the dogs out today ...

[HiTech RedNeck]

I'd assume this program looks for commonalities among the areas where the crimes have been. Like if they all were heavy with Swedish businesses, the killer's home is assumed to probably not be in a Polish neighborhood. Also I'd bet the areas are now staked out with police noting license plates and looking up the home addresses to crunch into this program to get an idea of the general locale of those who frequent these areas.

However for these killings I wouldn't rule anything out, including the scenes of the crimes being deliberately selected at random on a map, and researched individually, to throw off traffic profiling like this.

[Sacajaweau]

I think the dogs could sniff out gun powder residue...but I'm only guessing.

I really don't know all the capabilities of these dogs but they sure are amazing.

Sac

[Texasforever]

Well I guess it beats actually going out and finding the guy.

[Sacajaweau]

I don't think the traffic profiling is THE MOST IMPORTANT part of this and I think the vehicle is in the next parking lot away and the sniper himself is on foot for the actual scenarios.

If they use walkie talkies, the one in the vehicle could be giving directions as to what is arriving at the scene and which way the guy should walkout to avoid witnesses. The guy in the vehicle has several choices. If he gets trapped, the sniper just keeps walking. The vehicle is for lookout more than transportaion.

It's really several minutes until people get their senses about them and their concentration is on the victim.....Again the sniper just keeps walking....He might get a glance but he is doing what most are doing...getting away from there.

Sac

[HiTech RedNeck]

In gunphobic suburban Washington, how does he get away with toting his rifle right out in the open without somebody noticing.

[RLK]

Entirely too much information is being released regarding this situation and the tactics being employed, resulting in the idiot wo is doing it allowing to protect himself from getting caught.

[HiTech RedNeck]

Wonder if it is a 'right wing extremist' surfing Free Republic RIGHT NOW.

PING to the murderer.

[motexva]

Do you think the shooter is a student at U of MD?

[HiTech RedNeck]

PING to the murderer.
[Not you]

[Sacajaweau]

We got into this on another thread... the size of the weapon etc.. We just think full size rifle but that is not necessarily the case according to the info some of the gentlemen were submitting....so we're possibly talking backpack which I'm told would not be unusual for the area.

Sac

[RLK]

Wonder if it is a 'right wing extremist' surfing Free Republic RIGHT NOW.

------------------------------

He doesn't need to come here.I saw the press conference on the news,The authorities blabbed too much, giving the kook opportinity to adjust and adapt.

[Sacajaweau]

I'm told it is in the vicinity and I'm looking at the irregular times and associated it with a "student" schedule rather than a "working" schedule.

Sac

[ET(end tyranny)]

More likely shooting from another parking lot, but not wandering around on foot in broad daylight with a rifle. jmo

[Sacajaweau]

Blabbing ain't all that bad sometimes...it might cause the guy to make a mistake. He "planned" to work around our response from the beginning.

Sac

[HiTech RedNeck]

Well he (or she) is going to have to "adjust and adapt" to half a million pairs of eyes watching for sniper kooks. I wouldn't necessarily mind such a tradeoff. Hopefully it will raise everybody's vigilance, wherever they are.

[ET(end tyranny)]

With the erratic times schedule, there is a good possiblity that the person isn't working/doesn't work at all.

[HiTech RedNeck]

How about an "unemployed but well financed by Saddam" schedule?