Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[glory]

What is what like--the remnants, or the actual hurricane? I'll tell you about Andrew, but on mail so not to clog up the thread if you are interested. As for the remnants, we got them in Ohio last week--got about 3 inches of rain here--started raining light for a day and then poured the next day all day. Much welcomed rain here, too bad it's got to rip the southern coast up though for us to get it.

[Freebird Forever]

I lived in Davie back then. It was either Mitch or Georges I think.

[glory]

Aah, I don't mind really. My hubby films games for one of the coaches so I get to have him home this Friday. I hear you though, there is always next week. I'm praying for the folks on the coast down there.

[RnMomof7]

We had the first good rain of the "summer" when it walked through (It has been a beautiful summer for me..but horrible for the farmers)...this is stronger so it may bring some winds with it...but it is little more than a rain storm when it hits here,as they are pretty spent after all the time over land.....now me I worry more about the systems from Canada:>)

[Sungirl]

Actually, I was just teasing RnMomof7 because she is going to be hit with 2 hurricanes up there in Buffalo (remnants)and I..living here in South Florida ....have been hit with none. HAhahahah (I used to live up there)

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

How big is the range outside the eye?

The eye is about 20 miles across in this storm - so first thing to note is a 10 mile "free zone" around every NHC posit until landfall, more or less, depending on oscillation.

Beyond the eye, winds increase within that first mile to the maximum intensity of the storm - measured in the right front quadrant (because you get the extra added feature of forward speed added to the latent wind speed of the storm, which is actually stated wind speed minus forward speed, but I digress).

Beyond that zone, thankfully, winds decrease very rapidly. In this particular storm, hurricane force winds appear isolated to the bar - the inner most ring of storm cells guarding the eye (in many other storms, hurricane force winds may actually extend outward for a couple of rainbands). A very narrow zone - about 30 miles across, meaning the total distance from center will be 40 - 45 miles.

Let me introduce a concept - the triangle of destruction.

This is a planning device for disaster preparedness. Take the estimated strike point on the coast. Draw a line to the east (45 miles in this case) to the limit of hurricane force winds. Then repeat the same to the west (40 miles for this storm).

Then from the midpoint of this line (not the strike point, the mid point - this will be 2 1/2 miles east of the strike point for this storm), draw a line inland from the coast parallel to the storm track and extending as far as hurricane force winds are predicted. For this storm, that line is forecast to be 150 miles.

This is the most likely area in which damage will occur. Thus "the triangle of destruction."

[Sungirl]

Yes...the winds from Canada in November and December are usually at least a foot and a half of snow guaranteed.

[glory]

LOL! Enjoy the relative peace down there, for now. You guys have got a dumping of rain this summer though. My brothers and dad still live in the south florida area and they have been whining all summer about it;-)

[southernnorthcarolina]

It was massive too(Andrew)--isn't this one a little tighter than Andrew was? Still going to create havoc though.

I could be wrong -- I wasn't anywhere near -- but I think Andrew was very compact, uncommonly so for a storm with its peak intensity. That's my recollection of its appearance as it hit just south of Miami, anyway. Possibly it was larger (and definitely weaker) by the time it got to Louisiana.

[RnMomof7]

It was 75 today ...and yesterday and the day before...*grin* Come on girl YOU know you miss Buffalo.

This is a wonderful place...and the liberal democrats have killed it...and that is the truth

[dennis1x]

yes...Andrew was very compact. Size and strength have no correlation by the way.

[dennis1x]

i know LaPlace well.....have inlaws in Lutcher and wife grew up in Abbeville, New Iberia and then LaPlace.

[RnMomof7]

Yes...the winds from Canada in November and December are usually at least a foot and a half of snow guaranteed....LOL.....come home...

[Sungirl]

Yeah...but it's funny down here. It can literally be raining in the back of your house and not in the front. I didn't get that much rain where I live...not as much as some areas did. I am actually looking forward to a good storm..it's been awhile.... literally a couple years since we even had a good thunderstorm..and being from Buffalo..I actually want a blinding snowstorm to hit Palm Beach county...I kind of miss it...(the initial hit that is....not the aftermath.)

[glory]

You might be right. It seemed very massive to me at the time. This one seems so "neat" and compact if that makes sense. That last one(Isadore) seemed like it was spewing rain bands all over the place. My perception of Andrew might be clouded by standing in the damage after. This storm really is bothering me for some reason, I think because it's very similar and we are planning a trip down there next spring(I have not been back to the area since 2 mos. after that hurricane hit). Kind of bringing back memories.
Ok, I've rambled enough...

[Cold Heat]

I spent eleven years working the petro/chem corridor. My kids are still there. I evacuated long ago.

[AfghanAirShow]

You're right. It's not in the title or the first thread. But for the last hundred or so posts, there have been numerous pleas not to do large graphics, especially ones that are directly from sites like NHC. We are asking for folks to respect that.

For the benefit of the folks that are just tuning into this thread or who may have missed some of the earlier posts on this graphics subject: There's more to this request than just the fact that it slows down the loading of the thread -- the bigger problem is that folks are linking directly to NHC graphics and by doing so are adding to the bandwidth demand on already over-stressed NHC/NOAA servers. This weather event is putting what is obviously a tremendous strain on their site, and by linking images in this thread directly to their site via <img src="www.nhc.noaa.gov.[...]> tags you are causing a bandwidth hit to NHC servers EVERY TIME someone loads this thread or refreshes the page and the images load all over again. Please do not do this so that the NHC servers can have a fighting chance of keeping up with demand -- at a time like this it should go without saying why this is important. If you want to draw attention to a particular graphic then post just the URL, or if you must post the picture then download it first and mirror it to another site and then link there.

[glory]

LOL--I don't think they've even had any of those up here in central Ohio for a while, forget about palm beach;-)

Yes, I remember living there. The best part was watching thunderstorms roll in in the afternoon out of my window at work, well and the beach!

[newsperson999]

Note to all,,I may pull a allnighter with this one...a couple of things..

1. The towns in the path of the storm have roughly the same in not more population of the south florida area that got hit by andrew

2. worst case is the storm hitting near morgan city moving north-west along highway 90, Morgan city(pop 15,ooo)

then up 90 include franklin(7500), New Ibera(37,000) amoung others..next a few miles inland is Lafayette(100,000)

3. you must remember that south LA with its salt water swamps if more less half ocean/half land so the storm will take longer to weaken then in a normal area..also the speed of the stoem would mean very storng winds well inland before it weakens... 4. I am not sure what the elevation is ofthe above towns but they be all be flooded out in the surge (expect lafayette)

[glory]

btw, by last one I mean last storm. I realize that Isadore was a tropical storm and not a hurricane.