Posted on 09/23/2002 9:56:31 AM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
These polls came out yesterday:
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Lamar Alexander (R) leading Bob Clement (D 45 to 37 percent in the Tennessee race for Senate.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows John Cornyn (R) leading Ron Kirk (D), 42 to 30 percent in the Texas race for Senate.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Elizabeth Dole (R) leading Erskine Bowles (D) 55 to 32 percent in the North Carolina Senate race.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) leading Douglas Forrester (R) 39 to 34 percent. For more analysis of this race and early access to future tracking polls.
-The latest MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby poll shows Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-MO) leading Jim Talent (R) 48 to 40 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Norm Coleman (R) leading Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) 47 to 41 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Tim Penny (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R) each with 28 percent of the vote to Roger Moe's (D) 23 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) besting Bill McBride (D), 49 to 39 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) tied with Tom Stickland (D) 42 to 42 percent.
-The latest MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby poll shows Mark Pryor (D) leading Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R-AR) 45 to 43 percent, within the margin of error.
Not enough, though. Assuming those poll numbers are accurate, and no other races change hands, the Senate would remain in Dem hands, and they might even increase their majority by a seat (depending which way the CO race went).
Jim Talent has a good shot at Carnahan.
As long as the dead don't rise up to vote.
Zogby tracking (missing from the above list) showed Tim Johnson with a 46-43 lead over John Thune.
If these polls are correct, and stay that way, we would have a net loss of 1 seat.
The majority in the Senate is going to come down to 6 nailbiter races, of which the Pubbies have to win 4 of the following (incumbents listed first):
SD - Johnson v. Thune
MN - Wellstone v. Coleman
MO - Carnahan v. Talent
NJ - Toricelli v. Forrester
AR - Hutchison v. Pryor
CO - Allard v. Strickland
While other states might be close (NH) these 6 are the most likely to change hands.
I would also add Oregon to that list. There hasn't been any independent polling out there in ages, and I have a feeling Gordon Smith is going to be in for a tough race. Especially since there is a Libertarian candidate and a Constitution candidate on the ballot, but no Green candidate. If Colorado is this close, there's really no reason not to expect OR to be competitive as well.
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