ALERT: Hurricane Isidore forecasted to have at least 150 MPH winds within 72 hours

[newsperson999]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002

Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.

The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts

[jpsb]

Your mistake was in asserting a generality when we are discussing a particular. Isidore is and it is late sept. Sept is I believe the peak of the huricane season. We get more hits in July/August cause little gulf storms form then, no big deal. But Sept is (generally speaking) when the Big Atlantic storms roll in. And the Atlantic huricanes are monsters compared to the little gulf huricanes. Fortunately most drift west into Mexico, but not all, sometimes they curve north and there is hell to pay.

[The Game Hen]

I've been obsessed with hurricanes ever since I spent one hour in the eye of Hugo in 1989. (The eye was 60 miles wide traveling 60 mph!)
Am I wrong or does the predicted path always jog to the right over time?

BTW, unless you are threatened by a storm surge, stay put!
Don't get caught in traffic. Don't hinder the evacuation of people that need to leave. Set up a safe room and you'll be able to prevent damage when the wind and water tries to get in.

[Ditter]

You said your yard had 3 feet of snow, try to imagine, if you can, 3 feet of rain. That often accompanies a hurricane. Even if you miss the severe wind & high tidal surge, you can't escape the rain. BTW, its *flat* down here.

[mewzilla]

Hurricanes can be early in the season, too. Agnes, the one that laid waste around here in '72, occurred in June. Peak didn't mean much to her, either :)

[NautiNurse]

I am going to try and beat the crowd and stock up early

Sounds like a great plan. I detest the milk and bread crowds. As a result, I pick up an item or two as I do the regular shopping starting in August. Always have a hurricane kit at the ready. After the season, I donate the non-perishable goods to the St. Vincent DePaul Society.

[SpookBrat]

"Sometimes I think there are always two true answers to every question and you get to choose which one you want to listen to".

WOW! That was deep. Thank you.

[Xenalyte]

The last big storm we had in Houston was 20 years ago during Alicia.

There was Allison last summer, too. KPRC was off the air for three or four days because the studio flooded, and we had no Rush for almost a week.

[greccogirl]

Crown Weather Services'
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, September 22, 2002 540 am EDT

Things continue to be quite active in the tropical Atlantic. I have added graphics related to Tropical Depression 13/Lili in the eastern Atlantic since she poses a threat to the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the coming days.
Now onto Hurricane Isidore: Isidore is currently a strong Category 3 and will likely intensify to a Category 4 hurricane sometime today. The computer forecast models continue to show a wide variety of possibilities anything from a landfall in Tampico, Mexico Tuesday night to remaining in the central Gulf of Mexico for the next 5 days to a landfall near Galveston, Texas on Tuesday night. All interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast from the Mexican coast to the Texas coast and all points east to Florida need to continue to monitor the track and intensity of Isidore very closely since he continues to pose a viable threat to the entire Gulf Coast over the next several days.
The hurricane track models continue to show a wide variety of possibilities: The 2 BAM models are forecasting a due west over the next 3 days making landfall in northern Mexico near Tampico by Tuesday night. The A98E model generally moves Isidore on a westward course like the BAM models, except slower, over the next 3 days ending up near 21.7 North, 94.5 West by Wednesday morning. The LBAR model this morning curves Isidore northwestward in 36 hours and keeps him on northwestward course to a forecasted landfall near Galveston, Texas by Tuesday night. The GFDL model this morning is forecasting that Isidore will slowly sag southwestward into the Bay of Campeche through Tuesday night and then slowly move northwestward and forecasts it to be near 24.0 North, 92.4 West by early Friday morning.
The global models pose some different scenarios:
The GFS model forecasts that Isidore will move very slowly west to west-northward from the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula through the northern part of the Bay of Campeche from today through Wednesday with the GFS model forecasting a more northward motion on Thursday and Thursday night. The GFS model is forecasting a landfall near Brownsville, Texas on Friday morning.
The Canadian model forecasts that Isidore will remain near the Yucatan Peninsula from today through Tuesday morning. After Tuesday morning, the Canadian model forecasts Isidore to track north and then northeastward from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. On Thursday morning, the Canadian model is forecasting Isidore to make landfall along Florida's Panhandle near Apalachicola and forecasts it to move northeastward from there ending up in western South Carolina in 5 days or on Thursday night. It is interesting to note that the Canadian model is also forecasting a tropical system, likely TD13/Lili to be located in the extreme southeastern Bahamas on Thursday night. It is also interesting to note that the Canadian model has not waffled much from its first predictions several days ago and seems quite consistent on what it wants to do with Isidore, so this model may be the model of choice.
The NOGAPS model forecasts that Isidore will remain near the Yucatan Peninsula from today through Tuesday morning and then track northward from Tuesday through Thursday. The NOGAPS model is forecasting a landfall by Isidore in south-central Louisiana on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
My opinion is that the models of choice for this forecast are the Canadian Global model and the NOGAPS model. These models have been quite consistent in their forecasted track of Isidore, especially the Canadian model. Whether my choice of forecast models turns out to be correct or not remains to be seen. So I think that Isidore will remain near the Yucatan Peninsula in a weak steering environment through Monday night and start a northward path on Tuesday. I think Isidore will remain a north to north-northeast path from Tuesday through Thursday morning. My forecast this morning is for a landfall somewhere in the middle between the NOGAPS forecast and the Canadian model forecast, my educated guess would be along the Mississippi coast near Biloxi around noontime on Thursday. Even with this, all interests along the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida need to keep up to date with the future track and intensity of Isidore.
As for forecasted intensity: The SHIPS and DSHIPS intensity model forecasts Isidore to stengthen to a 113 knot hurricane by this afternoon, to a 123 knot hurricane by Monday afternoon, to a 125 knot hurricane by early Tuesday morning, and to a 126 knot hurricane by early Wednesday morning. The GFDL model is forecasting the following intensities with Isidore: A 929 mb/113 knot hurricane by this evening, a 938 mb/104 knot hurricane by Monday morning, a 942 mb/98 knot hurricane by Monday evening, a 947 mb/92 knot hurricane by Tuesday morning, a 959 mb/85 knot hurricane by Tuesday evening, a 967 mb/79 knot hurricane by Wednesday morning, a 971 mb/76 knot hurricane by Wednesday evening, a 970 mb/78 knot hurricane by Thursday morning, and a 967 mb/81 knot hurricane by Thursday evening. It is interesting to note that the GFDL model forecast is about 7 percent too low on its forecasted intensity of Isidore at the 6 hour forecast. The 5 am National Hurricane Center forecast indicates that they believe that Isidore will strengthen to a 115 knot Category 4 hurricane by this afternoon, to a 120 knot hurricane by Monday afternoon, to a 125 knot hurricane by early Tuesday morning and to remain a 125 knot Category 4 hurricane through at least early Wednesday morning.
My opinion is that the SHIPS model may be closer to what intensities Isidore may be than the GFDL model. I think the GFDL model may be way too low on its forecasted intensities of Isidore, therefore, it will be discounted. So, my forecasted intensities for Isidore is as follows: 115 knots (133 mph) by 2 pm EDT this afternoon, 120 knots (138 mph) by 2 am EDT Monday, 125 knots (144 mph) by 2 pm EDT Monday, 125 knots (144 mph) by 2 am EDT Tuesday, 127 knots (146 mph) by 2 pm EDT Tuesday, and finally 130 knots (150 mph) by 2 am EDT Wednesday. Be aware though that Isidore could strengthen more than what I am forecasting here. There is a slight possibility that Isidore could reach Category 5 strength for a time while it is in the Gulf of Mexico.
All interests along the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida and also the southeastern United States and the northern coast of Mexico need to monitor the track and intensity of Isidore. We will continue to monitor this system closely and keep you all updated.
Thats about it for now, The next tropical discussion will be issued by 11 am EDT on Monday.


This has good info - www.crownweather.com

Interesting that most models show north turns.

[SamAdams76]

Here is the latest on the storm Isadore by Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather.com. It appears that the chances have increased for U.S. landfall Louisiana and points east though it may not be so strong and could provide beneficial rains to many areas. Let's hope.

SUNDAY MORNING: ISADORE SHOULD MOVE OVER YUCATAN, DOES ANYONE ELSE SEE THAT?

I am convinced Isadore is going ashore this afternoon and tonight over the northwest Yucatan. The storm is embedded in a flow that is almost parallel to the coast, but with the weakening of the southern side of the storm over land, the northern side remains intense and literally forces a turn to the southwest. This means that the center should turn southwest and maybe even south. The more it does this, the less west it will get, and so the greater the chance for the hit on the United States. Only a straight west path argues for the Mexican coast now. The more southwest it goes, the less west it goes, and with the changes taking place it means that the storm will not be far enough west for it to avoid the rising heights to the east. Therefore the European is still my model of choice and the UKMET has come around to it.

This means option number 2, big storm hit Thursday or Friday, most likely Louisiana or a bit further east is the idea. By big storm I mean a strong 2 or a three 2. I think the Yucatan will take at least 30 mb out of this. However since final landfall is still at least 4 days away, there is a chance it could come back to the 934 it has hit this morning. In any case the idea is that this turns into a rapidly moving rainstorm coming right through the area that needs rain the worst from the last couple of months. Thats been my story and I am sticking to it.

Elsewhere..madness takes control. Height rises are starting over the northwest Caribbean as the pinwheel upper low is lifting out. US models continue to insist there will be development out of this some way or another. The call here is that this will be an appendage of low pressure riding north mid and late week in tandem with Isadore. Still, there is obviously something going on in there as its not just the leftovers of Isadore.

Kyle looks to me like it will stay well out. Again United States models have decided to take this west to Bermuda. This does not look very likely to me, though it can be blocked. The next threat to the states is out system at 11 and 52, which looks like a tropical storm . I have no changes on this from previous posts below.

[Askel5]

After the season, I donate the non-perishable goods to the St. Vincent DePaul Society.

What a great idea.

[Ditter]

I decided to forgo my daily 1 hr walk & spend the time picking up things in my yard (one hr is just a start). This is the storm preparation that everyone on the Gulf Coast should be doing *now*. The panic that you dislike may be the media & the tendancy they have for over doing everything. So, if you are not effected, turn them off.

[alnick]

"People were found drowned in their attics after Hurricane Betsy, because places went from having no water to having 20 feet of water in 15 minutes," Krieger said That's a sobering thought. I guess they're not so "slow-moving" once all hell breaks loose.

That one really got to me too. I lived through Betsy and we had 5 feet of water in the house, which was raised about 3 feet. The entire neighborhood ended up in my neighbor's two-story house, where they had a roaring hurrican party going, until the boats came to get us the following morning.

I was very young so I was unaware about people dying in their attics. I asked my mom and she said that yes, it did happen. I do remember looking out of the window and seeing a dog on the roof of the house across the street.

[NELSON111]

Rather than argue the point...I think you are just trying to be difficuly;-) for a man of your wisdom certainly knows that Opal was in '95 and Mitch was in '98....and both were prior to '43. Matter of fact...they were both less than 7 years ago;-) I think you are just being a stinker...hehehe

[Palladin]

You must be too young to remember the doozies of hurricanes that hit NYC and Long Island in late September in the '50's. I remember one that took down Revolutionary-era trees in Prospect Park, in Brooklyn, NY, I think it was '54. And another on LI that hit for Rosh Ha'Shona, I think it was in '61. The G's and H's are bad--Gloria, Hazel...now we're going to get one heck of an "I"--Isidore.

[raygun]

I fully concur that Isadore is soon to become a non-issue, for the U.S. that is. It will fall completely into the Bay of Compeche. I think the ridge extending down through Texas will intensify and prohibit any NW movement.

I believe that a low will organize just south of the western tip of Cuba by Mon. morning. This should move in a NW fashion. I believe it will then insinuate itself into a trough that extends SW-NE and currently is over the Bermuda's. This trough should maintain that orientation and move NW. By Monday night (around 8 P.M.), I'd expect the southern most part of this trough to contact the SE coast of FL. I'd expect the low will intensify sufficiently that it should qualify as a tropical depression at least. At best it'll become a tropical storm. This is not Kyle nor #13. This is an as yet unorganized system.

This system should make landfall somewhere south of Tampa maybe W night or Th morning. This would result in torrential rains on the eastern half of the FL penninsula. But in no sense should this be a hurricane. I don't believe it'll be wound tight enough.

What happends to Isador at the bottom of the BOC, is anybodys guess at this time. It might travel west and cross Mexico into the Pacific before turning northwards.

[Goldwater Girl]

One problem with your prediction- Tampa is on the WEST coast....

[Palladin]

Here's anothr classic example of a late-September hurricane:

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/index.html

[cajungirl]

I take offense!!! But I was in New Orleans for Betsy with gusts up to 200 mph and winds I think 150plus. It was a nite to remember and the devastation was something but there was not a catastrophe. Now I was also in Audrey which hit Cameeron Louisiana with 600 people killed. It was incredible,,snakes killed alot but the water did the most. That was in the early fifties and I was inland but people lost roofs etc. There was also one in 1948 that I spent as a little girl under the dining room table with blankets piled up,,mother thought the house would come down. Our neighbor's garage did and in the middle of the storm I remembered my pet chickens were outside in a garage,,my father went out into the storm and rescued them,,I thought he was a hero after that, my mother said he was a fool!!!

[buffyt]

Hurricane season is June 1 - November 1.

[buffyt]

August 1983 we evacuated Lake Jackson Texas and went to San Antonio with two year old son, two month old daughter, and one cat. Had a great visit there, but a huge mess to clean up when we got home. I think that one was Hurricane Allison. Hard to keep track, have lived through so many in Texas Gulf area since 1973. Out here in LA we have Santa Anna winds that are like hot dry hurricanes, they break out windows and knock over trees. Last time we had a huge mess like that was in late 1980s in San Marino Calif.