ALERT: Hurricane Isidore forecasted to have at least 150 MPH winds within 72 hours

[newsperson999]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002

Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.

The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts

[Bad~Rodeo]

Tons of them on the Gulf coast, hold on

[Bad~Rodeo]

In case anyone is interested i have a lot for sale on the Costa Maya beach in Xcalak, Quintana Roo, Mexico

Before Isadore...L~

[BigWaveBetty]

Thank you! Nope, no surf there.

Here it comes....

[jpsb]

As I recall, that storm was partly (mostly?) the reminates of a huricane.

[luv2ndamend]

Don't know if anyone has this link. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

If already posted, my apology.

[NautiNurse]

Florida Web Cams

[BigWaveBetty]

Thanks! Didn't see any surf there either. Oh well, so what else is new?

There's still over a month of hurricane season to be on the look out.

[SamAdams76]

If you have to go back to 1943, then I think you proved my point for me. It is rare for hurricanes to hit the U.S. coast this time of year.

[NautiNurse]

How many established hurricanes traveling through the Gulf of Mexico have not struck the US?

[SamAdams76]

Yes, that "unnamed hurricane" of 1991 was partly the result of Hurricane Grace. The remnants of that storm merged with some other weather and became the infamous "Perfect Storm" of 1991. I was right in the middle of that one. We had over a foot of rain and I was pumping out my basement for days afterwards. It was at its peak on Halloween night and it was the only year that my house wasn't besieged by trick or treaters - which almost made it all worth it.

[SamAdams76]

I don't know exactly. Generally the ones that don't make landfall are soon forgotten.

[Bad~Rodeo]

[Ditter]

Don't you have friends or relatives you could go & stay with? We have friends on Tiki Island who will be coming here if this storm hits. A 12 foot elevation is not high enough to stay there.

[NautiNurse]

I don't know exactly. Generally the ones that don't make landfall are soon forgotten.

A convenient and feeble reply while you persistently proffer generalizations. I take it you didn't check out the handy web site links I sent you. Interesting stuff!

:o)

[jpsb]

The problem with leaving, as I am sure you know, is that once it is clear that a big storm is headed or way the roads a jammed and you can't get out! If this storm turns north, (as a couple of models predict) then all of galveston will be on I45 and 146. Effectively closed the only two escape routes. Let's just hope that Issy continues west.

[Ima Lurker]

Over?? It's really just begun. My guess is you've never lived on the Gulf Coast, right?

[SamAdams76]

There is nothing wrong with making generalizations when the facts are on your side. Generalizations are made all the time. For instance, generally speaking, incumbents win re-election. The facts are on my side when I make that generalization because by and large, the incumbent does win re-election. The fact that a few challengers WILL beat the incumbent does not mean that I am "out to lunch" with this generalization.

Well, my earlier statement that hurricanes striking the U.S. coast this late in the hurricane season is a rarity is also a valid generalization that is backed up with facts to support it. I'm not really interested in arguing about this all morning. I did challenge others who refute my point to come up with major hurricanes that struck the U.S. coastline after September 25th. The best they could come up with was some hurricane in 1943, Hurricane Opal in 1995 and that unnamed northeaster (Perfect Storm) in 1991 off the New England coast. That "feeble" response (to coin your term) pretty much confirms my generalization, dont'cha think?

[SamAdams76]

In the spirit of fairness, I would like to bring one more post September 25th hurricane to the table that others have missed. It was Hurricane Gloria from 1985. I remember that hurricane well. It grazed Cape Hatteras as a Cat 3 and hit Long Island as a Cat 2 on September 27th. Up here in New England, it was panic central. Business and schools were closing before it even came. Even I was putting plywood over my windows and removing all my yard furniture. By the time it made it to my area, it was mostly a gusty windstorm. We didn't even get that much rain out of it. But a tree did fall on my girlfriend's car and I had to drive her to work for the next two weeks while it was in the auto body shop.

[jpsb]

I have lived many years in the NY and NE area and can remember a few bad snow storms. One in 68? 69, on Long Island dumped 3 feet of snow over night! But it ain't nothing like a huricane, particularly if you live on or near the coast. My front yard is Galveston Bay, so I have to take these storms very seriouly. Now if I lived in Houston or Austin I wouldn't worry to much about them, strong winds and lots of rain, pain in the butt. No big deal, but for those of us that live at waters edge these stroms are a life and death matter.

Later today I am going to try and beat the crowd and stock up early. Isidore is starting to worry me. Probably she'll keep tracking west but a turn to the north would send the Texas Gulf Coast into a near panic.

[SamAdams76]

You are thinking of February 1969. I just barely remember that storm as I was just 6 years old. I do remember my father carrying me to the car because the snow was too deep for me to walk through. I believe it snowed continuosly in most of New England for a solid week. It was actually 2 or 3 northeasters, one right after the other.

Good luck with your preparations down there. Hope it's a total miss. I know what it's like living on the coast and worrying about your property. I used to live in Revere, MA, which was partially devastated by the February 1978 blizzard. Hundreds of homes had their basements and part of their first floors completely covered in seawater. I lived only a half mile from the ocean at the time. I remember walking towards the beach and seeing absolutely no snow at all (it had been washed away by the ocean). Yet back at my house, we have over three feet of it and it was days before my side street even got plowed.