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There is nothing wrong with making generalizations when the facts are on your side. Generalizations are made all the time. For instance, generally speaking, incumbents win re-election. The facts are on my side when I make that generalization because by and large, the incumbent does win re-election. The fact that a few challengers WILL beat the incumbent does not mean that I am "out to lunch" with this generalization.

Well, my earlier statement that hurricanes striking the U.S. coast this late in the hurricane season is a rarity is also a valid generalization that is backed up with facts to support it. I'm not really interested in arguing about this all morning. I did challenge others who refute my point to come up with major hurricanes that struck the U.S. coastline after September 25th. The best they could come up with was some hurricane in 1943, Hurricane Opal in 1995 and that unnamed northeaster (Perfect Storm) in 1991 off the New England coast. That "feeble" response (to coin your term) pretty much confirms my generalization, dont'cha think?

In the spirit of fairness, I would like to bring one more post September 25th hurricane to the table that others have missed. It was Hurricane Gloria from 1985. I remember that hurricane well. It grazed Cape Hatteras as a Cat 3 and hit Long Island as a Cat 2 on September 27th. Up here in New England, it was panic central. Business and schools were closing before it even came. Even I was putting plywood over my windows and removing all my yard furniture. By the time it made it to my area, it was mostly a gusty windstorm. We didn't even get that much rain out of it. But a tree did fall on my girlfriend's car and I had to drive her to work for the next two weeks while it was in the auto body shop.

Here is the latest on the storm Isadore by Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather.com. It appears that the chances have increased for U.S. landfall Louisiana and points east though it may not be so strong and could provide beneficial rains to many areas. Let's hope.

SUNDAY MORNING: ISADORE SHOULD MOVE OVER YUCATAN, DOES ANYONE ELSE SEE THAT?

I am convinced Isadore is going ashore this afternoon and tonight over the northwest Yucatan. The storm is embedded in a flow that is almost parallel to the coast, but with the weakening of the southern side of the storm over land, the northern side remains intense and literally forces a turn to the southwest. This means that the center should turn southwest and maybe even south. The more it does this, the less west it will get, and so the greater the chance for the hit on the United States. Only a straight west path argues for the Mexican coast now. The more southwest it goes, the less west it goes, and with the changes taking place it means that the storm will not be far enough west for it to avoid the rising heights to the east. Therefore the European is still my model of choice and the UKMET has come around to it.

This means option number 2, big storm hit Thursday or Friday, most likely Louisiana or a bit further east is the idea. By big storm I mean a strong 2 or a three 2. I think the Yucatan will take at least 30 mb out of this. However since final landfall is still at least 4 days away, there is a chance it could come back to the 934 it has hit this morning. In any case the idea is that this turns into a rapidly moving rainstorm coming right through the area that needs rain the worst from the last couple of months. Thats been my story and I am sticking to it.

Elsewhere..madness takes control. Height rises are starting over the northwest Caribbean as the pinwheel upper low is lifting out. US models continue to insist there will be development out of this some way or another. The call here is that this will be an appendage of low pressure riding north mid and late week in tandem with Isadore. Still, there is obviously something going on in there as its not just the leftovers of Isadore.

Kyle looks to me like it will stay well out. Again United States models have decided to take this west to Bermuda. This does not look very likely to me, though it can be blocked. The next threat to the states is out system at 11 and 52, which looks like a tropical storm . I have no changes on this from previous posts below.