Posted on 09/21/2002 3:05:23 PM PDT by newsperson999
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002
Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.
The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts
Just beating you to the "hot air" comment.
Wrong - they come into your life, unexpectedly (though one is always pre-warned), rearrange your furniture, destroy your baseball card collection, leave you penniless, and it's always fun to observe until one is reaching for a lifeboat for dear life ;)
It's true.
The problem with "getting out" is that the highways turn into parking lots as a big storm approached. Last place I want me and my dog Maggie to be in a huricane is stuck on the road half way between Galveston and Houston. Also, the cops will not let you go back to your home once te storm passes. Nope, better to stay.
Given that names are only retired when major damage is sustained and the rest are recycled ... no chance.
A quick review at Google reveals that most of the articles listed -- all of the government's site -- don't give credit where credit is due but the Family Education Network does:
By 1979, men's names were added in response to protest from women's groups.
More info at the Merriam Webster cool words site:
... in that year of 1954, Carol, Edna, and Hazel came along, creating together over a billion dollars in damage and taking some 176 lives. During that horrific storm season, there were a number of complaints about giving these death-dealing storms women's names, but the furor died out by the end of the season, and the mail to the weather bureau turned in favor of female names.New lists were developed every year until 1971 when a semi-permanent list of ten sets of names was established. But then storm clouds gathered in the form of complaints which held that the naming system was not only inherently sexist but also did not take into account the Spanish- and French-speaking victims of hurricanes in the Caribbean.
At first the National Weather Service explained that the names were not an insult to women but a compliment to their powerful force in nature. At one point it was officially stated that women's names were easier to pronounce than men's.
"Women," responded the national vice president of the National Organization for Women, "are not disasters, destroying life and communities and leaving a lasting and devastating effect."
[40 million unborn dead beg to differ.] One feminist, according to a 1972 UPI story, had proposed naming all future hurricanes after congressmen, and a letter to the Baltimore Sun suggested that they be given the names of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Though impractical, such suggestions could have been a headline writer's dream--"Senator Goldwater Slams into Gulf Coast."
In 1975 the Australians, who started it all, announced that they would alternately name tropical storms with male and female names, and in 1977 the United States went to a meeting of the World Meteorological Organization where it agreed to alternate male and female names, as well as to take other languages, beginning with French and Hispanic names, into account. The new kind of list went into effect in the Pacific in 1978 and the Atlantic in 1979.
Now that's not a bad idea!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.