Senate Still Too Close to Call; Dems Need Minor Miracle in the House! (My title)

Center for Politics ^ | 9/13/2002 | Larry Sabato

[Robert_Paulson2]

I REALLY like steve.
Goofy as hell looking.

I REALLY like steve.
I think as a Senator, he would probably do more to advance the concept and practical application of tax reform, beyond all the hyperbole and fluster we have had from republicans in my lifetime to date.

did I mention that I like steve forbes?

[GraniteStateConservative]

They also have a Democrat AG, two Democrat senators, and Gore did very well there.

[Jim Noble]

>>Whether that can be sustained for another six weeks is anybody's guess<<

The RATs haven't started the grandmothers/dog food & churches burning ads yet.

[Jim Noble]

I think Bush has to campaign personally to win the Senate, in a "give me a Senate I can work with" sense-and I think the chances he will do that are about zero.

That would help a few RATs-notably Shaheen and maybe Wellstone-but it would hurt Landrieu, Carnahan, Cleland, Johnson, Baucus, and maybe Torch.

If Bush has a RAT Senate after November, it will be largely his fault.

[Jim Noble]

>>What has the GOP done to get the message COMMUNICATED to the average voter that the Dems have weakened our military and obstructed our efforts?<<

Zero.

How bad does he want the Senate?

The million dollar question. You'd have to say, "not very much" based on performance to date.

[LS]

Mud, don't misread me. I said if it is a ONE-vote difference, Chaffee would bolt. I think McCain also entertains (or entertainED) those thoughts. But you are CERTAINLY right: if the margin is 3-4, there will be STRONG incentive for Breaux and Miller to jump. STRONG incentive.

[LS]

I haven't seen a specific poll---I think the pollsters are shell-shocked, and scared to take one. EVERY DEM I have seen praised the speech, and even after moving to criticisms, grudgingly admits it was a very effective move.

I think they are stunned. I don't know if Bush is a CALCULATING politician and that he plans these things, or if he is the most instinctual politician of our age, but he constantly reverses field on these guys.

Even I, who follow this stuff, expected him to pull a JFK at the UN: go in with photos, CIA stuff, and so on. Instead, he hits them with their own damn, ineffective resolutions. Just brilliant.

[LS]

Billybob, you are forgetting one thing: IF we pick up three senate seats, for a 52-48-"1" majority, there will be HUGE pressure and incentives to both Breaux and Miller to jump. DO they want to be in the minority for several years? I think not.

On the other hand, if the lead is only ONE again, the pressure shifts to the GOP to keep Chaffee in line---not a good prospect. On the House, I think you are underestimating the sheer number of redistricted seats---such as ours, here, where Mike Turner is a shoe-in. The number I heard was about 15 of these "safe" redistricted seats. So my prediction on the House stands (and is actually a little conservative).

[The Person]

yes, you said the trend in Congress was breaking our way, not winning.

[The Person]

The only reason Breaux and Miller haven't jumped yet is that Repubs get almost no black votes. I think this simple fact will keep the Dems.

[LS]

Good point. You may be right, but still, it is hard to live in the Senate without heading ANY committees.

[cinFLA]

They also have a Democrat AG, two Democrat senators, and Gore did very well there.

As I recall, Gore lost. That is NOT doing very well, particularly since it cost him the presidency.

[Mudboy Slim]

"I think as a Senator, he would probably do more to advance the concept and practical application of tax reform, beyond all the hyperbole and fluster we have had from republicans in my lifetime to date."

Yeah, I just wish he wouldda run this year, but Forrester don't seem all that bad...Forbes could also be a valuable member of Dubyuh's cabinet, were he so inclined.

"...did I mention that I like steve forbes?"

He was my boy, too...but Dubyuh's not doing too bad in his stead.

FReegards...MUD

[Mudboy Slim]

"Mud, don't misread me. I said if it is a ONE-vote difference, Chaffee would bolt."

I think I did misread you...I just don't see things shaping up in such a way that it would be advantageous for either Chaffee or McStain to bolt the GOP anytime in the not-too-distant future.

"I think McCain also entertains (or entertainED) those thoughts. But you are CERTAINLY right: if the margin is 3-4, there will be STRONG incentive for Breaux and Miller to jump. STRONG incentive."

Yep...the incentive will be to enhance their political viability in the future and the JUSTIFICATION will be the unwillingness of RATS to hold folks like DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and Torricelli accountable for their criminal acts.

FReegards...MUD

BTW...please tell me yer not Dr. Sabato, 'cuz if you are, I wanna apologize fer the bluntness of my TWIT comment...LOL!!

[Mudboy Slim]

"The only reason Breaux and Miller haven't jumped yet is that Repubs get almost no black votes. I think this simple fact will keep them Dems."

I tend to disagree...I think the reason they haven't jumped yet is becuz they were really never courted that aggressively by Dubyuh and the GOP. Think about it, when Jeffords took his Lib'ral Vote to the RATS, all of a sudden we had Little Tommy Dasshole as the personalization of the DemonRAT Obstructionists, when before the RINO- Wing (Jawn Wahnah, McStain, Chaffee, Snowe, Collins, Jeffords, etc.) could undercut Conservative Legislation under the radar screen, while the Medyuh shrilly cackled at the GOP's inability to move legislation despite controlling the Oval Office and both Branches of the Legislature.

Now, it's become Dubyuh versus Dasshole in November, despite neither of them being on the ticket!!

FReegards...MUD

[mwl1]

If Bush has a RAT Senate after November, it will be largely his fault.

If Bush has a RAT Senate after November, they are going to make his life a living Hell... they are just getting warmed up on killing judicial nominations.

[Robert_Paulson2]

"were he so inclined."

Aye, there's the rub, as the paycheck might not be in his "arena." Still, for meaningful tax reform, he would do us a LOT of good on executive staff... small paycheck notwithstanding.

There are some pubbies who would scream bloody murder about it though... tenure and all.

[LS]

No, I'm not, nor do I know him. I did examine his web site carefully, and he appears to know his stuff.