[LS]

Billybob, you are forgetting one thing: IF we pick up three senate seats, for a 52-48-"1" majority, there will be HUGE pressure and incentives to both Breaux and Miller to jump. DO they want to be in the minority for several years? I think not.

On the other hand, if the lead is only ONE again, the pressure shifts to the GOP to keep Chaffee in line---not a good prospect. On the House, I think you are underestimating the sheer number of redistricted seats---such as ours, here, where Mike Turner is a shoe-in. The number I heard was about 15 of these "safe" redistricted seats. So my prediction on the House stands (and is actually a little conservative).

[The Person]

The only reason Breaux and Miller haven't jumped yet is that Repubs get almost no black votes. I think this simple fact will keep the Dems.