Posted on 09/13/2002 7:13:40 PM PDT by LS
Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Political Scientists with a pretty good track record, has the following (the briefest summary: please go to his site, as he has EVERY race analyzed!)
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ (Maybe someone can actually post the link?)
Senate is too close to call. The Dems could have a net gain of 2, the GOP could have a net gain of 2. He has moved the Torch into the endangered category; has Talent leading; but has Thune and Hutchinson trailing. Cleland could be vulnerable, but not likely. He moved NH back more toward the GOP. Wellstone in trouble, Dole considered safe, and NH now considered safer for GOP.
He now has the edge going to the GOP in TEXAS, so the key races will be SD and ARK. If Hutch holds, and Thune wins, the GOP could be up by more than 2 seats---and I have said for months they need three to keep Chaffee from bolting.
In the House, he has the GOP ahead with 216 safe or leaning seats. Get this: 15 are "up for grabs." That means that the Dems must take 9/15 to take back the House. On the other hand, if the GOP just wins about half, it INCREASES its majority.
Best news of all? All this analysis was done prior to the events this week. No Iraq, no UN speech. Sabato based this on the infamous "kitchen table" issues that are about to go out the window!
I will repeat MY earlier prediction that, with just a few races breaking the right way, we could have a 4-5 vote lead in the Senate and 10-15 margin in the House!
The RATs haven't started the grandmothers/dog food & churches burning ads yet.
That would help a few RATs-notably Shaheen and maybe Wellstone-but it would hurt Landrieu, Carnahan, Cleland, Johnson, Baucus, and maybe Torch.
If Bush has a RAT Senate after November, it will be largely his fault.
Zero.
How bad does he want the Senate?
The million dollar question. You'd have to say, "not very much" based on performance to date.
I think they are stunned. I don't know if Bush is a CALCULATING politician and that he plans these things, or if he is the most instinctual politician of our age, but he constantly reverses field on these guys.
Even I, who follow this stuff, expected him to pull a JFK at the UN: go in with photos, CIA stuff, and so on. Instead, he hits them with their own damn, ineffective resolutions. Just brilliant.
On the other hand, if the lead is only ONE again, the pressure shifts to the GOP to keep Chaffee in line---not a good prospect. On the House, I think you are underestimating the sheer number of redistricted seats---such as ours, here, where Mike Turner is a shoe-in. The number I heard was about 15 of these "safe" redistricted seats. So my prediction on the House stands (and is actually a little conservative).
As I recall, Gore lost. That is NOT doing very well, particularly since it cost him the presidency.
Yeah, I just wish he wouldda run this year, but Forrester don't seem all that bad...Forbes could also be a valuable member of Dubyuh's cabinet, were he so inclined.
"...did I mention that I like steve forbes?"
He was my boy, too...but Dubyuh's not doing too bad in his stead.
FReegards...MUD
I think I did misread you...I just don't see things shaping up in such a way that it would be advantageous for either Chaffee or McStain to bolt the GOP anytime in the not-too-distant future.
"I think McCain also entertains (or entertainED) those thoughts. But you are CERTAINLY right: if the margin is 3-4, there will be STRONG incentive for Breaux and Miller to jump. STRONG incentive."
Yep...the incentive will be to enhance their political viability in the future and the JUSTIFICATION will be the unwillingness of RATS to hold folks like DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and Torricelli accountable for their criminal acts.
FReegards...MUD
BTW...please tell me yer not Dr. Sabato, 'cuz if you are, I wanna apologize fer the bluntness of my TWIT comment...LOL!!
I tend to disagree...I think the reason they haven't jumped yet is becuz they were really never courted that aggressively by Dubyuh and the GOP. Think about it, when Jeffords took his Lib'ral Vote to the RATS, all of a sudden we had Little Tommy Dasshole as the personalization of the DemonRAT Obstructionists, when before the RINO- Wing (Jawn Wahnah, McStain, Chaffee, Snowe, Collins, Jeffords, etc.) could undercut Conservative Legislation under the radar screen, while the Medyuh shrilly cackled at the GOP's inability to move legislation despite controlling the Oval Office and both Branches of the Legislature.
Now, it's become Dubyuh versus Dasshole in November, despite neither of them being on the ticket!!
FReegards...MUD
If Bush has a RAT Senate after November, they are going to make his life a living Hell... they are just getting warmed up on killing judicial nominations.
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