Wash. Post 9/6 Poll: Bush 69% Approval, GOP Leads Dems in Generic 49% to 41%

The Washington Post ^ | 9/8/02 | Richard Morin

[tellw]

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? (IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF) Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)?

NET LEANED VOTE

Republican: 49%
Democrat: 41%
Other: 1%
Neither: 2%
Will not vote: 1%
No Opinion: 5%

Click here for the full polling data.

[MinorityRepublican]

I am sure that we are all looking forward to a landslide similiar to 1994.

Let's see if the numbers will hold up.

[OldFriend]

That seems to be conventional wisdom at the moment. Look for massive fraud in Missouri. Talent would get to sit in for the time between November and January, giving the Senate an equal split with Cheney giving the Republicans the edge.

[patriciaruth]

Do your Christmas shopping before September 30, so that the economic numbers show up in October before the mid-term elections.

LOL!

Great minds run in the same channels. I did my Christmas shopping last month.

[patriciaruth]

a serious beating at the polls is likely to further radicalize the Democrat party. Which would tend to pull them into ever more marginal positions, eventually reducing the Democrats to a radical rump. And a merger with Nader's Greens...

This is interesting speculation. My long term prediction is that the Libertarians are going to become the second major party in the U.S., and when they start gaining traction, the Democrats will cave into third party status and then disappear like the Whigs and the Federalists.

[randita]

If Talent wins over Carnahan, the Senate may return to Republican control at once.

This would be my understanding. Widow Carnahan was appointed by the governor as happens when a Senator meets an untimely end during his/her term. The fact that she was appointed to fill the spot was probably suspect in the first place because the person elected, Mel Carnahan, was not a viable candidate at the time of the election.

Ashcroft was gentlemanly enough to acquiesce. A good case could have been made for a special election then and there.

When a Senator is appointed by the governor, I believe the Constitution requires that the seat be contested during the next election cycle. That's what's happening now. And if Thune wins, yes, he would be installed in that seat immediately--not in 4 years.

Sweet!

[randita]

You know the Constitution. Can you please affirm the info in Post 31 and my response in post 45? Or if not, do you know what rules apply here? Thanks.

[Mike Darancette]

You know the Constitution.

Wouldn't this be a matter of state law regarding interim appointments?

[Dog Gone]

It's really more a question of Missouri state law than the US Constitution. If Talent defeats the widder woman in this special election (which it is, despite the fact that it's held in the regular November election), he's eligible to be seated immediately.

The problem could be that Missouri law requires that the Governor certify the election results of any special election, and since he's a Dem, he might just refuse, especially if it makes the difference as to who controls the Senate.

[OldFriend]

Sweet indeed. Now the good people of Missouri have to see to it that the election is not rife with fraud.

[BlackRazor]

This poll seems to be consistent with the Newsweek poll (conducted 8/28-29) that gave the GOP a 45-40 edge on the generic ballot.

[Coop]

I am sure that we are all looking forward to a landslide similiar to 1994.

Folks, let's be realistic. The GOP holds a lot more seats than in '94, so there's less room for growth. And there are a lot fewer House seats with realistic chances to change hands.

I'd be ecstatic if the GOP simply breaks even with the House, gains 3-4 Senate seats, and breaks even with Governorships while winning California. :-)

[AmishDude]

I'm sorry. I know a weekend/summer/vacation poll favors Democrats, so this is a good sign, but I have a policy of rejecting any poll taken over the weekend or before labor day.

The latest Washington Post poll is based on telephone interviews with 1,003 randomly selected adults nationwide and was conducted Sept. 3-6, 2002.

[txrangerette]

There's an AP article out now that for
technical reasons I can't post. Help!
It says "polls show Bush handling of
foreign affairs is down almost to pre-
9-11 support levels". Supposedly a big
drop! So AP wants to convey. Anyone(?)
see this story? Can you post it? (If
it isn't already) What's the scoop?

[AmishDude]

Check that. I misread my calendar. This is a T-F poll. Probably pretty accurate then and showing the proper trends.

[Redleg Duke]

Boy, the RATS are gonna have to really dig deep for voters this year!

[Redleg Duke]

Napoleon once said that one should never distract your opponent when he is busy making a mistake.

[okie01]

"My long term prediction is that the Libertarians are going to become the second major party in the U.S., and when they start gaining traction..."

If the Libertarian Party wishes to become a second major party, they'll need to find new leadership and some issue other than legalized drugs to run on.

Otherwise, for all the good things Libertarians stand for, the party will remain firmly located on the margin.

[tellw]

Arggh. National Journal Hotline isn't reporting the results of this poll either. I sent them an email asking them why. If any of you want to complain to the Hotline for ignoring the poll, email hotmail@njdc.com. Thanks!