Wash. Post 9/6 Poll: Bush 69% Approval, GOP Leads Dems in Generic 49% to 41%

The Washington Post ^ | 9/8/02 | Richard Morin

[tellw]

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? (IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF) Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)?

NET LEANED VOTE

Republican: 49%
Democrat: 41%
Other: 1%
Neither: 2%
Will not vote: 1%
No Opinion: 5%

Click here for the full polling data.

[joeyman]

This poll indicates a blowout in Nov in favor of the Repubs. However, I'll wait till I see add'l polls that confirm it - this is so strong I want to see other polls before I buy into the msg here.

Generally polls showing a 50 50 split produce a 4 to 6% republican victory on election day. If this is true - this could remove the McGovern Wing of the Democratic Party from power permanently.

[justshe]

I have seen a subtle, but continuing shift in GOP statergery (g) since Marc Racicot took over the helm. I hope they continue to NOT choke. So far...it's going well.

Example: I do NOT think it accidental that during the joint GWB/BLAIR press conference yesterday, that GWB addressed the fact that Daschle/Gephardt et al. were in favor of taking out Saddam in 1998. In fact, they were QUITE vocal about their views.

[Mike Darancette]

Why was the LA Times Generic poll touted on CNN showing the Rats up 10%?

[joyful1]

Yaaahooo!!! Glory to God!

[mwl1]

Thank you for posting. This is very good news indeed. My suggestion to all: Do your Christmas shopping before September 30, so that the economic numbers show up in October before the mid-term elections.

[LS]

I think that Bush has weathered the storm, and that despite ENRON, a slow economy, PLO/Israel, the "White-House-Knew," and all the other crap the Demon crats have thrown at Bush for six straight months, him being at over 60% is incredible. An Iraq invastion or a slight uptick in the stock market and these slimeballs are going to be down for a looonnnnng time.

[tellw]

I looked on Pollingreport.com and saw that the LA times latest poll on the congressional matchup was taken August 22-25. It showed Dems 47%, GOP 39%. But I think that was taken when Republicans were on vacation (and on a WEEKEND no less). This Washington Post poll was taken mid-week (Sept. 3-6) which I am told is more accurate if you're just going to take a poll of adults/registered voters.

[okie01]

"Generally polls showing a 50 50 split produce a 4 to 6% republican victory on election day. If this is true - this could remove the McGovern Wing of the Democratic Party from power permanently."

To the contrary. Even as it weakened the Democrats, it would tend to even further radicalize the party.

Reason being, under this scenario, the Democrats would lose seats in so-called swing districts -- where candidates are, by definition, more moderated. The more radical socialist and racist Democrats are harbored in safe districts -- where they can afford to be radical.

Thus, a serious beating at the polls is likely to further radicalize the Democrat party. Which would tend to pull them into ever more marginal positions, eventually reducing the Democrats to a radical rump. And a merger with Nader's Greens...

[Doe Eyes]

I fear these numbers are inflated by the Liberal Post to boost Democratic voting. Beware the "devil" Washington Post.

[Wphile]

Check out these numbers!!!

[OldFriend]

Did you know there is an interesting scenario unfolding. If Talent wins over Carnahan, the Senate may return to Republican control at once. This is now being researched in Missouri, but it seems the laws are clear that Carnahan will not return after the election and Talent would get her spot.

[joeyman]

Thus, a serious beating at the polls is likely to further radicalize the Democrat party. Which would tend to pull them into ever more marginal positions, eventually reducing the Democrats to a radical rump. And a merger with Nader's Greens...

Thomas Jefferson said something along the lines of this, "Two men can look at the exact set of facts and draw diametrically opposed conclusions." This appears to be the case here.

The banking and other business interests that run the democrat party do not want a marginalized party on the scale of the greens. They need two parties to play off against each other. Therefore, the leadership of the dem party, under a republican wipeout scenario, would say "You must move to where most voters are or we will not finance you."

The dems, being more heavily financed be far fewer interests than the broader sponsered repubs, would have to play ball. If those who finance the party are unable to secure their interests in that manner, they'd probably run (and heavily finance) their own dark horse candidate to restore some modicum of viability to the wounded donkey.

[Lauratealeaf]

Good point! Think I might go shopping tomorrow! And, this is a poll after Labor Day when most people are paying more attention.

[CyberAnt]

The stat that excites me the most is "1% say they're NOT voting". If only that were true, the repubs would win in a landslide.

[GretchenEE]

bump

[ladyinred]

The funny thing is, the RATS are using the opposition to the Iraq war for political purposes. They hope to get enough Americans to oppose it that it helps them get elected! It appears to be failing so far, a poll I saw today says 80% of Americans think we should bomb Iraq! The RATS must be pulling their fur out!

[Timesink]

Right now, are you inclined to vote to re-elect your representative in Congress in the next election, or are you inclined to look around for someone else to vote for?

This is by far the most important question, IMHO. In order for the Rats to win back the House, they have to win a sizable majority of the truly "up-for-grabs" seats, and in order to keep the Senate they can't lose a single seat. If the incumbent races question remains a virtual tie or continues trending downward in the "throw the bums out" direction overall, then we win, even before you factor in all the things like the built-in Rat poll bias, MOE, etc. The overall GOP favorability ratings and individual "vote GOP or Dem" questions attest to it. The more volatility in the "keep or dump your Congressman" area, the more Republicans will win.

Barring some sort of major event between now and election day, I don't see how the Rats can turn this around.

[Timesink]

I REALLY hope you're right, but I expect the GOP to choke sometime between now and then.

I don't even think it's a matter of whether the GOP chokes or not. The Democrats are digging their own grave with their anti-Bush, anti-war, whiny empty rhetoric. All we need to do is keep our mouths shut and step back.

[Timesink]

Why was the LA Times Generic poll touted on CNN showing the Rats up 10%?

Because it was CNN!

[Timesink]

You mean if when Old Maid Carny loses the election, she has to step down immediately? Oh, that would be SUCH sweet revenge.