Wash. Post 9/6 Poll: Bush 69% Approval, GOP Leads Dems in Generic 49% to 41%

The Washington Post ^ | 9/8/02 | Richard Morin

[tellw]

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? (IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF) Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)?

NET LEANED VOTE

Republican: 49%
Democrat: 41%
Other: 1%
Neither: 2%
Will not vote: 1%
No Opinion: 5%

Click here for the full polling data.

[tellw]

The Post's article about this poll by Richard Morin is a for the birdcage. He doesn't even mention how the GOP rated. And I bet they are not going to put this into the print edition so you're only going to see this here. Of course if Dems were leading by this much it would be all over the story.

[tellw]

Oops, that should say Republicans with 49 PERCENT.

[JameRetief]

bump for later.

[Savage Beast]

Of course you're right, but you know it galls those decadent fools at the Washington Post just to see these poll results.

[The Wizard]

bump

[Always Right]

The Democratic opposition to the war in Iraq is the sole cause of the GOP surge, there is no doubt about it.

[Mike Darancette]

This is indeed distressing news for Daschle - Awwwwwww!

Even with the margin of error the GOP is in pretty good shape.

[JameRetief]

Hmmm, some of the questions and answers were quite interesting:

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

                Right      Wrong     No
              Direction    Track    opin. 
9/6/02           43         54        4
2/21/02          54         42        4
2/14/99          55         41        4

I wish some follow up questions would be asked to find out what circumstances are causing shifts like these. Are the "wrong track" issues something largely apolitical like child kidnappings, or are they more along the lines of congressional conduct or financial scandals?  Looking at the answers to other questions, if the wrong track trend is political in nature the public might be seeing the Democrats as a reason for the wrong track.  They did not fare as well in this poll as Republicans in the various areas where questions were asked.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling...?

                                          Approve   Disapprove   No opin.
a. The economy                               54          42          4
b. Environmental issues                      53          40          7
c. Education                                 62          30          8
d. The federal budget                        50          41          9
e. The U.S. campaign against terrorism       70          28          3
f. Social Security                           47          37         16

Considering how the media tries to portray Bush as an enemy to most of the issues, these seem to be decent numbers across the board.

Right now, are you inclined to vote to re-elect your representative in Congress in the next election, or are you inclined to look around for someone else to vote for?

                 Re-elect      Look around    Depends (vol.)   No opin.
9/6/02              43             43              7               7
2/21/02             40             48              7               6

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of: 

                          Favorable     Unfavorable     No opinion
a. The Republican party      57             37               6
b. The Democratic party      49             43               7

Trend:

a. The Republican Party

             Favorable   Unfavorable   No opinion
9/6/02          57           37             6
1/27/02         63           30             7
7/30/01         51           46             3

b. The Democratic Party

             Favorable   Unfavorable   No opinion
9/6/02          49           43             7
1/27/02         56           36             8
7/30/01         60           36             4

Pre and post 9-11 numbers are interesting contrasts.  While both parties have slipped, the Republicans have kept the more favorable impression overall, still up over pre 9-11 numbers.  The numbers for the Democrats are not good news for them.  This could bode a decent advantage in the upcoming elections for the Republicans gaining back the Senate and increasing seats in the House.  With the new focus on Iraq, this will likely only get better.

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being
held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican
candidate) in your congressional district? (IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF)
Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican
candidate)?

Net Leaned Vote:

                 Dem      Rep     Other     Neither     Will not      No
                cand.    cand.    (vol.)    (vol.)     vote (vol.)    op.
9/6/02   All     41        49       1         2            1          5
7/15/02  All     47        45       1         1            1          4
7/15/02  RV      47        46       1         1            1          4 

Compare to:

Registered voters:
Net leaned vote:

                                      Neither    Wouldn't
              Democrat   Republican   (vol.)   vote (vol.)  No opin.
1/27/02          43          50         2          1           5

Considering that "likely voter" trends tend to break for Republicans, these numbers which don't even account for voting habits could be VERY good news indeed.

[FryingPan101]

Oh Dear. You would think the American people are about to throw another tantrum, huh?

[jokemoke]

Yes, the DemocRATS are hated by oh so many.... He,he,he,he,he!

[randita]

This poll was taken of 1,300 "randomly selected adults" and still the GOP trounces the DEMs. Amazing, indeed. If this trend holds up, it bodes very well for the GOP to hold the House handily, and regain the Senate. These poll numbers should spell defeat for Torricelli, Tim Johnson and others who are holding on for dear life.

I do hope the GOP regains the Senate, so Bush can get his judges approved. Then Rehnquist and O'Connor can retire as they've purportedly wanted to do for several years now. Ginsburg might just give up and retire as well. She's not in the best of health.

[white trash redneck]

This is truly ghastly news for the RATs, since these generic polls typically overstate RAT support by 3-5%.

[cajungirl]

I've been saying the dems are gonna pay heavily for their attacks on Bush, for their anti war stance, for their obvious politicking rather than pulling to support us and Bush. They are going to pay, big time. I said this months ago when little Tommy got his knickers unbunched and decided to attack a decent president. And Americans don't like to hear their Pres called dumb,,it is an affront to most Americans who are close to dumb!!!! I think this is good news if true.

[Green Knight]

I REALLY hope you're right, but I expect the GOP to choke sometime between now and then. Here's hoping they don't. Getting tired of the rats hamstringing us at every turn when there's a war on. What they're doing is nothing short of lending aid and comfort to the enemy solely for political gain, and enough is enough.

[eureka!]

Poll ping...

[Mike Darancette]

BUMP

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

The Republican lead will grow to 55% by election day.

[rb22982]

Excellent numbers. Maybe Bush will be able to ram through another tax cut (perhaps even a spending cut) if we get large GOP majorities--not to mention good solid constitutionalists for the courts.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

If this trend holds up, it bodes very well for the GOP to hold the House handily, and regain the Senate

I do not have the numbers handy, but I think that this sort of a lead would lead to a greater victory for the GOP than in 1994! When you add to it the fact that the main issue between now and the election will be the war in Iraq, the actual vote should be a larger victory than that.

[j271]

It looks like the liberal media deliberately spikes any reports on positive poll numbers for the GOP to make sure they can't build any momentum.

In contrast, positive numbers for the Democrats always seem to receive huge play.