Victory by Talent could give GOP control of Senate in lame-duck session

The Kansas City Star ^ | Thursday, September 5, 2002 | DAVID GOLDSTEIN

[TroutStalker]

WASHINGTON - Republicans hope they will take back the Senate in January. But under one far-fetched scenario involving the U.S. Senate race in Missouri, they could be back in control soon after the November election.

Here's how that could happen:

The first thing to understand is that the Missouri race is a special election. Sen. Jean Carnahan was appointed to the seat two years ago after the death of her husband and she was to serve only until the next election.

The next key point -- one that has political operatives in Missouri and Washington buzzing -- is that under Missouri law, the winner of a special election can be certified to take office almost immediately. He or she does not have to wait until January when the rest of the senators are sworn in.

Now it gets a little more complicated.

Congress, eager to hit the campaign trail for the November election, is set to adjourn Oct. 4. But unfinished business is clogging the docket, especially in the Senate. It might have to reconvene after the election to take up prescription drugs, the budget, the homeland security bill and Iraq.

If the Senate does reconvene in a lame-duck session, and GOP candidate Jim Talent wins Carnahan's seat, the Democrats would lose their one-seat edge to the Republicans. If independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont continues to vote with Democrats, the Senate would be split 50-50. The result: Because Vice President Dick Cheney breaks tie votes, the GOP would be in control -- at least until January when the rest of the winners are seated and the balance of power could shift again.

The Talent scenario, if it happens, would be a political plus for President Bush. Having his party control the Senate, even if only for a few weeks at the end of the year, gives him more clout to push his agenda.

"A bank shot," is how Matthew Dowd, Bush's pollster, described the mountain of political what-ifs.

"Phenomenal complications," said Republican Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho, chairman of the GOP Policy Committee.

But there is still another possible political wrinkle, "kind of a gray area," according to Trent Summers, an election specialist for the Missouri secretary of state.

Summers says that the secretary of state and the governor have to certify the victor in a special election.

In this case, the secretary of state is Matt Blunt, a Republican, and son of Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri, a top official in the GOP House leadership. The governor is Bob Holden, a Democrat who -- as it happens -- narrowly defeated Talent for governor two years ago.

Blunt most likely would quickly certify Talent's victory, but would Holden? Could he hold up his certification, giving the Democrats more time to control the Senate?

"That's the gray area," Summers said.

Holden spokesman Mary Still said the governor's office had not done any legal research on the issue and could not comment.

Talent spokesman Rich Chrismer said the campaign had not thought about it, but intended to win in any case. Carnahan spokesman Tony Wyche said pretty much the same thing.

In Washington, one Republican political operative would not discuss the scenario, but a GOP congressional aide said it was being talked about.

Most agreed with Jim Jordan, political director of the Democratic Senatorial Committee, who called the scenario "arcane" and said the Missouri race did not need any more drama.

"I don't think the stakes of the election could get much higher," he said.

To reach David Goldstein, Washington correspondent, call (202) 383-6105, or send e-mail to dgoldstein@krwashington.com.

[Sister Rose]

This is really kind of heartbreaking to read.