Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Satadru
You are on!

Will bet you $20 that Republicans do Take Back the Senate and Keep the House!
32 posted on 08/12/2002 7:11:00 PM PDT by PhiKapMom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies ]


To: PhiKapMom
Hey can you ask Patrick if he has any plans to bring back KeepTheHouse.com? It was a nice site.
33 posted on 08/12/2002 7:14:09 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies ]

To: PhiKapMom
Regarding the House, I have a major article coming out in the Sept.-Oct. issue of Contingencies, which is the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. It covers turnover in the House from the second election in 1790 through 2002, with solid predictions for 2004.

Here's the click link for that article which will be published on the Net in about four weeks.

Bottom line: There are not enough "contested races," meaning contests likely to be decided by less than 5%, for the Democrats to take the House. There are only 20 such races. The Dems would have to win 70% of those to take the House. They cannot accomplish that.

For the resaons stated in that article, I stand by my prediction made a year before this general election that the Republicans will gain 5-7 seats in the House.

In the Senate, the Dems look to lose SD (Johnson), Minn. (Wellstone), and possibly Mo. (Carnahan). As much as I dispise Bob ("the Un-Bribed") Torricelli in New Jersey, as a prediction I think that slimeball will grease his way to reelection. So I also stand by my prediction last November that the Repubs will gain 1-3 seats in the Senate.

Congressman Billybob

Click for latest column: "Good People, Naked People, People Who Are Wet and Wild."

Click for latest book: "to Restore Trust in America"

58 posted on 08/13/2002 5:44:47 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson