I think you've done a great job a piecing together a valid timeline from the available data. I do have a few suggestions I'd like to make in relation to some of the events though..
20:31:12 - ~13,800 ft. - 0 sec. Last transponder return, everything normal, Aircraft climbing at 33 ft./second.
As the FDR records a massive overpressure and bizarre readings at 20:31:12, there is some question here as to whether the IE happened at ~20:31:13 as you indicate. There IS some uncertainity here however, as I'm not sure how the time recorded in the FDR relates to the time recorded by the Islip radar. It IS possible that there was some slight difference between the two clocks, so as far as I know we can't be certain as to the exact time of the IE.
There's also the fact that witnesses observed TWO detonations prior to the first fireball, so I'd add an entry for the detonation of the SECOND missile at about 1 or 2 seconds past the IE. That is the time interval given for that sequence as told by the witnesses who saw both detonations..
Given the IE at ~20:31:13, entry for the SECOND detonation should be;
20:31:14 - 20:31:15: ~13,880 ft. ~2-3 sec. Second missile detonates, sheering off the nose of TWA 800. This missile was observed by Captain Baur and Al Gipe. The warhead involved with this missile is apparently of a continuous-rod type.
We also need to add the THIRD explosion, apparently that of the CWT almost immediately after the SECOND detonation...
20:31:15 - 20:31:16: ~ 13,900 ft. ~3-4 sec. Third explosion is observed by witnesses, described as resulting in a fireball and trail of flames. This is the center wing tank exploding and spraying flaming fuel.
You refer to the various states of the CWT along the timeline. I don't know if it would be possible for the tank to have been ruptured by a missle and explode yet maintain any structural integrity, but then again I supppose it might be possible.
In relation to the event listed for 20:31:34:97;
20:31:34:97 - ~9,100 ft. - 22.97 sec. Fifth post IE radar return. Stress is taking its toll on the wingroots. The Center Wing Tank structural members are buckling under the whipping of the plane rolling and pitching. Fuel is now leaking into the area around the Wing roots from the full wing tanks.
I'd say that this is the point where the left wing was ripped off due to the extremely high airspeed and structural damage. This resulted in the massive fireball as the aircraft was already in flames at this point. The massive amount of fuel suddenly released by the loss of the left wing ignited and resulted in the massive fireball which had reportedly been observed by satellite to have occured between 5500-7500 feet. Recent calculations I've made lean towards an altitude of 6500 feet for this event, and I personally find that to be a closer estimate for the altitude of the aircraft than the 9100 feet altitude that you postulate.
Do you think that is detailed enough for AsmoElmer?
I don't think anything would satisfy him unless we totally and unequivocally agreed with him.
Former, I deliberately considered only the single missile scenario... however, I would have no problem adding your second missile as I believe there is sufficient evidence to consider it. However, I did not postulate the explosion of the CWT immediately following the IE in deference to your theory of some aerodynamic falling... and because I rethought what the radar track shows... which is that there were distinct gross vector changes. This indicates that the airframe maintained SOME ability to exert a force on itself. Without engines, the only thing left is an intact wing exerting uncontrolled AERODYNAMIC random lift in various stages of the fallas the aircraft gyrated and occasionally achieved close to a proper angle of attack. If the CWT had exploded immediately, the wing would not have been strong enough to place that kind of force on the airframe. The logical conclusion is that the CWT was still intact during these vector changes.
The first small fireball of non-ordnance explosion may be explained by shrapnel from the missile penetrating the right wing tank and leaking fuel spewing in to the atmosphere detonating from hot material. That fireball is left behind and the leaking, but not aerated fuel extinguishes itself.
The Track shows a major vector change (more than 110 degrees to the right of the previous vector!!!) sometime after the 20:31:34:97 return. That gross of a change must indicate the extreme forces that either pull the wing off or are the result of the wing loss. The wing must have been lost somewhere here and the rest of the airframe with one wing started a very rapid spin... which cannot apply any force for sufficient time to alter the trajectory in any significant factor. Note, that the very small linear distance this vector change makes means that the loss of the wing could have occured ANYTIME in the ~4.62 seconds between sweeps. My thinking is that it probably occured very close to the next sweep and that the MF followed in only a couple of seconds afterward... otherwise the plane would be far away (900+ feet) from the cloud of fuel/air that became the fireball it was seen to fall out of.
I selected the 20:31:39:64 return as the one preceeding the exposion of the massive fireball for several reasons. First, the spinning plane would expel the remaining fuel and agitate it. Second The aerated fuel spewed by the plane cannot have been going on too long as it would have been left behind by the aircraft (each molecule of fuel would have very little mass and would lose momentum almost instantly) and MF witnesses report the aircraft falling out the bottom of the MF, ergo the fuel spew, agitation, explosion occur very quickly. Next, the witnesses who reported the MF below their position and placed it around 7,500 ft altitude... which is where the plane was at that point, and finally, the reports of the rising cloud from the MF are in the area the plane was at that time. i actually would not have any problem with your suggestion of 6,100 feet for the MF as the witnesses report it at 7,500 but hot gasses rise rapidly and the TOP of the ball would easily reach that in very short time. Several witnesses reported the explosion to be 2000 feet in diameter!
As to asmodeus... he wouldn't be happy if we did suddenly agree with him... he would probably be out of a job!
FormerLurker to
Swordmaker:
The massive amount of fuel suddenly released by the loss of the left wing ignited and resulted in the massive fireball which had reportedly been observed by satellite to have occured between 5500-7500 feet. Recent calculations I've made lean towards an altitude of 6500 feet for this event, and I personally find that to be a closer estimate for the altitude of the aircraft than the 9100 feet altitude that you postulate." Let's compare FormerLurker's present calculated MF altitude of 6500 feet with the following:
The timeline and location of the major events of the disaster was approximately as follows:
8:31:11 Intact and climbing 747 approaches 13,800 feet.
8:31:12 Initiating Event at 13,800 feet followed immediately by the commencement of the decapitation process.
8:31:43-8:31:47 Streak of light appears.
8:31:47 Explosion of Massive Fireball at 5500-7500 feet.
8:31:55-8:31:57 Splashdown of the Massive Fireball flames.
Source.
The huge size of the Massive Fireball explosion was calculated by another "shootdown" tinfoil hat years ago at approximately 2000 feet in diameter and, of course, witnesses Faret & Wendell have stated that the top of the MF smoke cloud was at 7700 feet.
Source.