20:31:00 - Plane flying normally, altitude 13,400 ft., climbing at 33 ft/sec.
21:30:04 - Possible ground-to-air missile launch. Rate of climb accelerates to Mach 2.1.
21:30:07 - Mike Wire notices flare like object rising over house and arcing to left. in the next 8 seconds many more people notice streak, firework, etc.
21:30:10 - Major Fred Meyer sees "meteor like" object flash acorss his field of view.
20:31:12 - ~13,800 ft. - 0 sec. Last transponder return, everything normal, Aircraft climbing at 33 ft./second.
20:31:13 - ~13,840 ft. ~1 sec. Missile strikes TWA800 on left side at approximately seat row 16-17 transects the passenger cabin spewing partially burned solid rocket fuel (and leaving a red residue on seats in this area), taking out passengers and seats in rows 17-18 and exits aircraft through right side. VDR ends in loud, strange sound. Bright white Ordnance type explosion occurs just after missile exits thin walled cabin. Blast places massive overpressure on nose of aircraft and opens wide gap in side of aircraft. Parts of missile continue on momentum at speed approaching MACH 2 at a vector 190 degrees from north, ejecta from aircraft including seats, passengers, luggage to eventually land in "crosswind blast debris" field. The blast imparts a slightly more eastward vector for the ejecta which combined with the ejecta's already present eastward momentum results in the ejecta coming to rest about 175 degrees from the point of ejection.
20:31:14 - ~13,880 ft. ~2 sec. 400+ MPH winds acting on the gaping holes in aircraft fuselage causes the "unzip" of the aluminum skin of the nose. Windforce bends the nose up and breaks the "keel" of the fuselage. Signals to control surfaces and engines cease when wires are broken and engines revert to idle. Drag is no longer being counteracted by the thrust of the engines. The plane slows drastically.
20:31:15 - ~13, 900 ft - ~3 sec. Drag pulls the nose up and away from the rest of the fuselage and breaks loose on the right first and falls away to the left where it is still partially attached, twisting the aircraft toward the left and starts to fall pulling the left wing down, changing the vector of lift imparting a strong leftward force on the aircraft. Unbalanced drag toward the left is enormous. This accounts for the sudden leftward change in aircraft vector.
20:31:16:49 - ~13,890 ft - 4.49 sec. First post IE radar return. - The nose swings under and to the right and breaks completely loose and continues on a momentum driven ballistic fall slightly to the right (about 3 degrees) of the original aircraft vector. The noseless aircraft losing both the balance necessary for proper flight AND the thrust of the engines overcoming drag, pitches rapidly up and stalls. it may climb a very small amount during the pitch up before stall.
20:31:17 - ~13,860 ft. - ~5 sec. Gravity's inexorable pull starts the plane on its final trajectory. Drag is slowing the forward velocity and the uncontrolled aircraft is on either a ballistic fall or a somewhat aerodynamic fall.
20:31:21:13 - ~13,500 ft. - 9.13 sec. Second post IE radar return. - Uncontrolled plane pitches and yaws, lift occasionally pulls the plane in different vectors... this time a strong rightward vector. Drag continues to rip and rend the airframe just in front of the wing.
20:31:25:72 - ~12,300 ft. - 13.72 sec. Third post IE radar return. - More gyrations... now vectored back to the right.
20:31:30:37 - ~10,900 ft. - 18.37 sec. Fourth post IE radar return. - Falling steeply now. Much of the forward momentum is gone due to drag. Structural damage is weakening the Center Wing Tank's integrity and wings are no longer as strongly attached to the remaining fuselage.
20:31:32:?? - ~10,050 ft. - ~20 sec. Terminal velocity achieved of ~450 ft./second.
20:31:34:97 - ~9,100 ft. - 22.97 sec. Fifth post IE radar return. Stress is taking its toll on the wingroots. The Center Wing Tank structural members are buckling under the whipping of the plane rolling and pitching. Fuel is now leaking into the area around the Wing roots from the full wing tanks.
20:31:36:?? - ~8,500 ft. - ~24 sec. The aircraft takes a VERY sharp turn to the right (South) and one of the wing's fails, breaking away from the fuselage. The aircraft with only one wing starts to spin rapidly, spewing jet fuel and agitating it into the atmosphere, mixing it with air.
20:31:39:64 - ~7,000 ft. - 27.64 sec. Sixth post IE radar return. - Center Wint Tank explodes from spark caused by MECHANICAL breaking of metal. Volatile air-fuel mix surrounding aircraft ignited into Massive Fireball, Hot fireball begins to RISE, while burning plane falls through bottom of Fireball still spewing liquid fuel which ignites on exit from wingtanks.
8:31:43 - Elmer's "Streak of light" crippled plane appears.
20:31:44:29 - ~4,900 ft. - 32.29 sec. Seventh post IE radar return. - Still falling at 450 ft. per second.
20:31:47 - ~3,680 ft - End of streak - Elmer Asmodeus's mythical "Eyewitness Myth" Explosion of Massive Fireball at 5500-7500 feet.
20:31:48:94 - ~2,800 ft. - 36.94 sec Eighth post IE radar return. - Shortly after the Flight TWA800 falls below the radar horizon and no further radar returns are received.
20:31:55 - ~43 splashdown.
Total Elapsed time from Initiating Event (the missile strike) = ~43 seconds. Plus or minus 2 seconds.
Do you think that is detailed enough for AsmoElmer?
20:31:12 - ~13,800 ft. - 0 sec. Last transponder return, everything normal, Aircraft climbing at 33 ft./second.
As the FDR records a massive overpressure and bizarre readings at 20:31:12, there is some question here as to whether the IE happened at ~20:31:13 as you indicate. There IS some uncertainity here however, as I'm not sure how the time recorded in the FDR relates to the time recorded by the Islip radar. It IS possible that there was some slight difference between the two clocks, so as far as I know we can't be certain as to the exact time of the IE.
There's also the fact that witnesses observed TWO detonations prior to the first fireball, so I'd add an entry for the detonation of the SECOND missile at about 1 or 2 seconds past the IE. That is the time interval given for that sequence as told by the witnesses who saw both detonations..
Given the IE at ~20:31:13, entry for the SECOND detonation should be;
20:31:14 - 20:31:15: ~13,880 ft. ~2-3 sec. Second missile detonates, sheering off the nose of TWA 800. This missile was observed by Captain Baur and Al Gipe. The warhead involved with this missile is apparently of a continuous-rod type.
We also need to add the THIRD explosion, apparently that of the CWT almost immediately after the SECOND detonation...
20:31:15 - 20:31:16: ~ 13,900 ft. ~3-4 sec. Third explosion is observed by witnesses, described as resulting in a fireball and trail of flames. This is the center wing tank exploding and spraying flaming fuel.
You refer to the various states of the CWT along the timeline. I don't know if it would be possible for the tank to have been ruptured by a missle and explode yet maintain any structural integrity, but then again I supppose it might be possible.
In relation to the event listed for 20:31:34:97;
20:31:34:97 - ~9,100 ft. - 22.97 sec. Fifth post IE radar return. Stress is taking its toll on the wingroots. The Center Wing Tank structural members are buckling under the whipping of the plane rolling and pitching. Fuel is now leaking into the area around the Wing roots from the full wing tanks.
I'd say that this is the point where the left wing was ripped off due to the extremely high airspeed and structural damage. This resulted in the massive fireball as the aircraft was already in flames at this point. The massive amount of fuel suddenly released by the loss of the left wing ignited and resulted in the massive fireball which had reportedly been observed by satellite to have occured between 5500-7500 feet. Recent calculations I've made lean towards an altitude of 6500 feet for this event, and I personally find that to be a closer estimate for the altitude of the aircraft than the 9100 feet altitude that you postulate.
Do you think that is detailed enough for AsmoElmer?
I don't think anything would satisfy him unless we totally and unequivocally agreed with him.
---------------------
Let's see if we can construct Asmodeus' oft demanded timeline that our math seems to indicate occurred rather than his wacked out theory.
20:31:00 - Plane flying normally, altitude 13,400 ft., climbing at 33 ft/sec.
21:31:04 - Possible ground-to-air missile launch. Rate of climb accelerates to Mach 2.1.
21:31:07 - Mike Wire notices flare like object rising over house and arcing to left. in the next 8 seconds many more people notice streak, firework, etc.
21:31:10 - Major Fred Meyer sees "meteor like" object flash acorss his field of view.
20:31:12 - ~13,800 ft. - 0 sec. Last transponder return, everything normal, Aircraft climbing at 33 ft./second.
20:31:13 - ~13,840 ft. ~1 sec. Missile strikes TWA800 on left side at approximately seat row 16-17 transects the passenger cabin spewing partially burned solid rocket fuel (and leaving a red residue on seats in this area), taking out passengers and seats in rows 17-18 and exits aircraft through right side. VDR ends in loud, strange sound. Bright white Ordnance type explosion occurs just after missile exits thin walled cabin. Blast places massive overpressure on nose of aircraft and opens wide gap in side of aircraft. Parts of missile continue on momentum at speed approaching MACH 2 at a vector 190 degrees from north, ejecta from aircraft including seats, passengers, luggage to eventually land in "crosswind blast debris" field. The blast imparts a slightly more eastward vector for the ejecta which combined with the ejecta's already present eastward momentum results in the ejecta coming to rest about 175 degrees from the point of ejection.
20:31:14 - ~13,880 ft. ~2 sec. 400+ MPH winds acting on the gaping holes in aircraft fuselage causes the "unzip" of the aluminum skin of the nose. Windforce bends the nose up and breaks the "keel" of the fuselage. Signals to control surfaces and engines cease when wires are broken and engines revert to idle. Drag is no longer being counteracted by the thrust of the engines. The plane slows drastically.
20:31:15 - ~13, 900 ft - ~3 sec. Drag pulls the nose up and away from the rest of the fuselage and breaks loose on the right first and falls away to the left where it is still partially attached, twisting the aircraft toward the left and starts to fall pulling the left wing down, changing the vector of lift imparting a strong leftward force on the aircraft. Unbalanced drag toward the left is enormous. This accounts for the sudden leftward change in aircraft vector.
20:31:16:49 - ~13,890 ft - 4.49 sec. First post IE radar return. - The nose swings under and to the right and breaks completely loose and continues on a momentum driven ballistic fall slightly to the right (about 3 degrees) of the original aircraft vector. The noseless aircraft losing both the balance necessary for proper flight AND the thrust of the engines overcoming drag, pitches rapidly up and stalls. it may climb a very small amount during the pitch up before stall.
20:31:17 - ~13,860 ft. - ~5 sec. Gravity's inexorable pull starts the plane on its final trajectory. Drag is slowing the forward velocity and the uncontrolled aircraft is on either a ballistic fall or a somewhat aerodynamic fall.
20:31:21:13 - ~13,500 ft. - 9.13 sec. Second post IE radar return. - Uncontrolled plane pitches and yaws, lift occasionally pulls the plane in different vectors... this time a strong rightward vector. Drag continues to rip and rend the airframe just in front of the wing.
20:31:25:72 - ~12,300 ft. - 13.72 sec. Third post IE radar return. - More gyrations... now vectored back to the right.
20:31:30:37 - ~10,900 ft. - 18.37 sec. Fourth post IE radar return. - Falling steeply now. Much of the forward momentum is gone due to drag. Structural damage is weakening the Center Wing Tank's integrity and wings are no longer as strongly attached to the remaining fuselage.
20:31:32:?? - ~10,050 ft. - ~20 sec. Terminal velocity achieved of ~450 ft./second.
20:31:34:97 - ~9,100 ft. - 22.97 sec. Fifth post IE radar return. Stress is taking its toll on the wingroots. The Center Wing Tank structural members are buckling under the whipping of the plane rolling and pitching. Fuel is now leaking into the area around the Wing roots from the full wing tanks.
20:31:36:?? - ~8,500 ft. - ~24 sec. The aircraft takes a VERY sharp turn to the right (South) and one of the wing's fails, breaking away from the fuselage. The aircraft with only one wing starts to spin rapidly, spewing jet fuel and agitating it into the atmosphere, mixing it with air.
20:31:39:64 - ~7,000 ft. - 27.64 sec. Sixth post IE radar return. - Center Wint Tank explodes from spark caused by MECHANICAL breaking of metal. Volatile air-fuel mix surrounding aircraft ignited into Massive Fireball, Hot fireball begins to RISE, while burning plane falls through bottom of Fireball still spewing liquid fuel which ignites on exit from wingtanks.
8:31:43 - Elmer's "Streak of light" crippled plane appears.
20:31:44:29 - ~4,900 ft. - 32.29 sec. Seventh post IE radar return. - Still falling at 450 ft. per second.
20:31:47 - ~3,680 ft - End of streak - Elmer Asmodeus's mythical "Eyewitness Myth" Explosion of Massive Fireball at 5500-7500 feet.
20:31:48:94 - ~2,800 ft. - 36.94 sec Eighth post IE radar return. - Shortly after the Flight TWA800 falls below the radar horizon and no further radar returns are received.
20:31:55 - ~43 splashdown.
Total Elapsed time from Initiating Event (the missile strike) = ~43 seconds. Plus or minus 2 seconds.