Smallpox Apocalypse

The Strategy Page ^ | July 22, 2002 | Tom Holsinger

[spycatcher]

Smallpox Apocalypse
by Tom Holsinger
July 22, 2002

A major smallpox attack on America would spiral overseas into the greatest catastrophe in history unless we resume preventive vaccinations. The epidemic would probably kill a tenth of the human race.

This is, fortunately, unlikely as the perpetrators would gain nothing. America would suffer among the least, while Muslim countries would suffer among the most. Terrorist states and extremist Islam will be annihilated, and not merely at American hands.

Smallpox is violently contagious with an unvaccinated 30% fatality rate. Survivors are disfigured. We have just enough vaccine for all Americans, Mexicans and Canadians. Perhaps one in a million will die from vaccination, while more will be disabled. Newer vaccines are safer. Rapid production of less effective vaccine using raw cowpox might be possible, but distribution in undeveloped countries during a world epidemic is problematic.

Last ditch protection is "variolation" - deliberately infecting people with smallpox pus - to create a less dangerous form of smallpox. This kills 1-2 per hundred. Speedy variolation of whole populations requires many existing victims plus great social discipline, and is least likely to work in undeveloped countries most in need of it.

The immune-impaired are far more vulnerable to infection but cannot be safely vaccinated. All infected will die.

Terrorists could start a smallpox epidemic here, without suicide volunteers, if Iraq helps or they obtain xSoviet smallpox. Weaponized smallpox powder reportedly drifted from an abandoned xSoviet biowar facility to infect the crew of a fishing vessel passing downwind. The unvaccinated crew died while all the vaccinated contracted smallpox, but survived. Smallpox powder is the nightmare scenario.

The best defense is mass pre-attack vaccination because the attack wouldn't happen due to being obviously futile. Voluntary pre-attack vaccination of just 10-15% of adults would vastly facilitate post-attack inoculation of everyone else. The vaccinated could maintain order and essential services while the unvaccinated hide in their homes pending inoculation.

The federal health establishment opposes even voluntary vaccination, contending it would kill too many people. Some other agenda is clearly involved given that the whooping cough vaccine mandatory for infants is as dangerous as existing smallpox vaccine.

That agenda is denial. They've spent their whole lives trying to eradicate smallpox, and can't adjust to 9/11. Obstructing vaccination lets them continue to deny that their life's work was wasted. Their institutional cultures and individual agendas mean they'll come up with other reasons against voluntary inoculation with emerging safer vaccines, and obstruct orders to permit it.

President Bush will have to spend too much of his time making a balky bureaucracy obey. Voluntary vaccination can only work if implementation responsibility is taken from federal health authorities, possibly by delegation to the states with funding. That would require Presidential involvement only once.

But the nightmare could start before then. Federal planners, excepting FEMA's Office of Emergency Preparedness, are clueless about public behavior in emergencies. They assume, as in Cold War plans, that people will act normally during the apocalypse instead of fleeing to the hills in panic, all without needing food, fuel, etc. Comical examples exist.

Post-attack inoculation will be additionally disrupted by 50+ million Mexicans surging here seeking vaccine not available in Mexico. That would magnify America's own panic, violence and collapsing civil infrastructure. All this is ignored so the federal health establishment can pretend their plan will work.

Worse, knowledge that they made the epidemic possible by obstructing pre-attack vaccination, repeated displays of politically correct federal stupidity concerning terrorism, and the arrival of millions of perceived infected Mexicans, will shatter public confidence. Americans will feel they must save themselves in defiance of a government whose incompetence caused the disaster. This is a prescription for chaos.

Fortunately the federal government is not our only government. State and local governments have always been our bulwark against disasters, and smallpox will be no exception. Additionally the American people will spontaneously organize themselves - consider Flight 93. We'll muddle through somehow, at higher cost, because we have enough vaccine, even for Mexico.

The rest of the world won't be so lucky. A significant outbreak here would unavoidably spread, including to countries where it would be unstoppable for lack of vaccine and social cohesion.

The leading disaster area will be sub-Saharan Africa due to AIDS. At least half its 500 million people will die. 10-15% fatalities of the 1.7 billion in India, Pakistan and the Arab world is not unreasonable. These areas' probable fatalities total 400-500 million, so 100-200 million more fatalities among the world's other 3.9 billion, mostly in Southeast Asia and South America, make 10% total smallpox fatalities worldwide quite possible. Most American dead - several million is reasonable if it starts here - will be immune-impaired, assuming most of the latter avoid infection. They might not.

There'd be hundreds million more dead from secondary causes - social collapse, genocidal nuclear attack on terrorist states, etc. The economic consequences would be ghastly. Most of the world participates in the money economy, unlike the 1930's, so the worst and longest depression in history would start.

Social effects would be awful too, notably here. Watching millions of us die horribly, with more millions disfigured, will scar America's psyche and self-image. Civil liberties and immigration would be savagely affected. Almost all Muslim immigrants would be deported - some would be lynched.

The American people will have a reckoning with Washington for wrecking the country by giving its games priority over our survival. Few in Congress will be re-elected, and President Bush would likely be removed earlier for "failure to perform his office".

Worse, public rage at all things federal would make significant Constitutional changes quite possible. Even an all-new Congress might not be trusted to propose suitable amendments. This could result in the states calling a second Constitutional Convention.

We might not be Americans afterwards, which would be terrorism's ultimate victory. The Bush Administration risks America's future by not letting us volunteer for smallpox vaccinations.

But that has its own risks. Next: DOING IT TO OURSELVES - Vaccination and the Immune-Impaired.

Tom Holsinger is a California attorney and wargaming grognard. He began writing for Strategy Page in April 2002 when Jim Dunnigan asked him to rewrite an email for publication.

[spycatcher]

Smallpocalypse Now: Coming soon to a theater of war near you

[widowithfoursons]

Anyone who wishes to be vaccinated against smallpox should be able to do so today. Where is the harm? It would certainly reduce future chaos.

[B-Chan]

Pucker Factor 8, Mr. Sulu.

That was one scary post.

B-chan
(vaccinated against smallpox in 1971)

[Timesink]

The American people will have a reckoning with Washington for wrecking the country by giving its games priority over our survival. Few in Congress will be re-elected, and President Bush would likely be removed earlier for "failure to perform his office".

Riiiiiight. It's common knowledge that voters despise Congress as a whole, but think their own personal representative is a god. And if such an attack were to occur, Bush's fate would be entirely determined by how he responded. If he sat on his hands and did nothing, sure, he might be removed. If he immediately declares WWIII, he'll be a lock for reelection.

By the way, if the whole of Congress is going to be thrown out, then who's going to be around to impeach Bush? If the public turns on them, they'll cease to give a damn. And what the hell does "failure to perform his duties" mean? The Constitution clearly states that the president can only be "removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." Pissing off the public is not a "high crime or misdemeanor."

[Anchoragite]

That was one scary post.
B-chan
(vaccinated against smallpox in 1971)

Come now. Wasn't that scary.
(Natural immunity to smallpox!:)

[Timesink]

Social effects would be awful too, notably here. Watching millions of us die horribly, with more millions disfigured, will scar America's psyche and self-image.

I don't recall the United States crumbling after the flu epidemic of 1919.

By the way, if anyone can answer this question, I'd appreciate it: Does a smallpox vaccination absolutely 100% guarantee you'll end up with one of those ugly round scars on your upper arm? I consider that disfigurement, too.

[Britton J Wingfield]

I would imagine that you could get the ugly round scar anywhere you want.

[AdamSelene235]

Anyone who wishes to be vaccinated against smallpox should be able to do so today. Where is the harm?

It would set a dangerous precedent of self-ownership. Americans can not be allowed the freedom (that most of the world enjoys) to decide what substances are introduced into their bodies.

[Paid4This]

B-Chan, you may not be immune. I lived in DC during the anthrax scare and there was a lot of information circulated there in the media that you need a booster shot, I believe every 20 years. Don't take my word for it, but you might want to look into it . . .

[Gritty]

Stop bothering us.

We're busy celebrating the miraculous recovery of the stock market today (all credit due to Congress and the Administration, of course)!

[B-Chan]

Yeah, I know... (shiver)

[Ranger]

I think part of the problem with the Feds is that to introduce a widespread small pox vaccination program, the Feds would first have to actually tell the public who might use it against us. Iraq, Iran, N. Korea, China, Russia? If it were determined that, say, Iraq had a massivce small pox program, the public would insist on holding that country fully accountable and subject to pre-emptive economic embargos and diplomatic isolation.

[neutrino]

The article makes a very good point. Smallpox, like most diseases, spreads best in dirty, crowded conditions among people in poor health and questionable nutrition. And that suggests that the third world would come off badly. It would have interesting side effects in several areas related to demographic pressures.

Quite aside from any retaliation, bio-warfare would be a dangerous thing for the mo-slimes to start. But I can't say they've shown many signs of brilliance to date.

[spycatcher]

Just look how freaked out everyone got with the anthrax though, smallpox would be insanity. Bush could be charged as negligent by the Dems after another attack for failing to close the borders or secure the airports.

You know they would die to impeach him as payback for Clinton. They woould say we need a "real leader" like Dick Cheney in charge. Then they would try to impeach Cheney over Haliburton.

As always, the Dems see sickness, poverty, misfortune, economic failure, etc as huge political opportunities. And they're chomping at the bit.

[EternalHope]

Outstanding article that missed a key point.

If you are going to game this out, be sure to game the whole thing. The biggest question is: How much vaccine do we really have? If we have as much as this article assumes, then we can implement any policy we want, including allowing voluntary civilian vaccination.

BUT... If we have much less workable vaccine than we claim, then we need to give the impression that we have much more than we actually have. Which, in turn, means we need a credible reason not to allow voluntary vaccination.

Voila! The health establishment sticks their collective heads in the sand (I'm trying to be polite here), and then proceeds to block the obviously best solution. "They" only allow vaccination of a few key people. We all believe it's just another example of the bureaucratic idiocy we all know so well.

I ain't buyin it. No way have we been able to find/create enough vaccine to protect all of North America this fast.

Likewise, if we had enough vaccine to do the job, no way would low level staffers be able to block the President's wishes. If he ordered approval for voluntary vaccinations, we'd have it tomorrow.

[spodefly]

I too was vaccinated back in elementary school, although I can't seem to find the 'disfiguring' scar anymore. If anyone here has any links to the latest thought from viroligists on the efficacy of the vaccine 30+ years later, I am interested to read it. Post here or freepmail me. Thanks in advance.

[spycatcher]

Saddam Hussein learned from the last war. I think he will choose to go down in a blaze of glory this time. And we aren't just talking oil well fires either. Whatever he has he'll try to use before we can destroy it. The question is whether or not he will preempt our preemptive attack.

[Doomonyou]

If it were determined that, say, Iraq had a massivce small pox program, the public would insist on holding that country fully accountable and subject to pre-emptive economic embargos and diplomatic isolation.

If Iraq was found to be responsible, the public would insist on "Fully accountable" = "Glow in the dark."

[EternalHope]

Smallpox is LESS useable as weapon because its spread would be uncontrollable. You do not blow up somebody if the bomb will get you too.

'Course, all bets are off if you are insane. Is Saddam insane?

If Saddam is insane, but nevertheless capable of self-preservation, then he will not use a weapon that is sure to result in his personal destruction unless he is faced with that destruction anyway. Hence I do not expect an attack on Iraq untill we have something in place for our own self-defense, or we have concluded that Saddam will strike first if we wait.

I doubt that our defenses are ready, but I am also unsure that Saddam will wait. Using the same strategic gaming approach as this article, you can expect Saddam to strike first if he becomes convinced we are close to achieving a self defense capability.

[boris]

The government obligingly announced that, since we have no native vaccine sources, it was purchasing several million doses from a British company.

They practically gave its street address.

Were I a terrorist, I would not bother to release smallpox. Instead, I would make that British company vanish from the face of the Earth, and sit back and watch the panic.

--Boris