Coleman Wellstone Even, GOP Poll Shows and Thune Poll Shows Lead Over Johnson

rollcall ^ | 7-22-2002 | - Lauren W. Whittington and Chris Cillizza

[KQQL]

Minnesota

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Coleman, Wellstone

Even, GOP Poll Shows

A new GOP poll in the Gopher State's closely watched Senate race showed Republican Norm Coleman ahead of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) by 4 points.

The survey, done by Voter/Consumer Research from July 14 to 15, showed Coleman at 46 percent and Wellstone at 42 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent.

Independent polling has indicated the race is in a statistical dead heat and new campaign financial disclosure reports show Coleman and Wellstone were second highest in overall spending among Senate contests last quarter. Wellstone spent $2 million while Coleman spent more than $1.5 million from April 1 through June 30.

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Thune Poll Shows

Lead Over Johnson

Rep. John Thune (R) held a slim advantage over Sen.Tim Johnson (D) in a poll conducted for his campaign last week.

Thune took 45 percent to Johnson's 43 percent in the survey conducted by the Anderson Group, which tested 400 registered voters on July 17.

This is the third poll released in the past two weeks that shows the race within the margin of error.

A Public OpinionStrategies (R) poll conducted in mid-June showed Thune with a 44 percent to 43 percent lead; a poll conducted for the Johnson campaign late last month showed its candidate on top 49 percent to 47 percent.

Seeking to put Thune on the defensive on corporate accountability, Johnson's campaign released an ad titled "Greed" that details Johnson's work in the Senate to pass legislation that significantly curtails the rights of corporations.

Thune ended June with a financial lead over Johnson. He had $200,000 more in his war chest than Johnson; the Johnson campaign is quick to note, however, that the Senator has already laid down more than$500,000 for his television advertising in October.

[Torie]

I have already "called" these races Crasher. So this isn't news. :)

So who are the possible stock market, corporate corruption undertow House Pubbie candidates previously favored? I previously named Toomey. Who else can reasonably be added to the list? Gerlach, Johnson, that jerk running in the new district in the Detroit suburbs, Feeney, Ginnie Waite, NH 1, Latham, Nussle (except he has a flawed opponent), who else? We are looking for more upscale districts here, Yankee moralistic districts, and/or senior districts. The more rural or cultural Southern districts I don't think will be impacted much.

[crasher]

If you don't mind, post or email me your new spreadsheet. I don't quite follow why Republicans will be hurt more in Yankee, upscale districts than culturally conservative ones. My thinking is that as the economy becomes a bigger concern, this gives Democrats an opportunity to win in rural areas on economics instead of losing on cultural issues.

Maybe NJ-05. I'm nervous about that one anyway. Maybe Wilson in NM? Doubtful. The only race I would currently say has changed from slight Rep. fav. to slight Dem. fav. because of all of this, is NH-01.

[Torie]

Folks in Little Dixie don't own stocks. Those folks won't react unless their jobs are impacted, not their portfolios. I haven't updated my spreedsheet much. I am still pondering. NJ-5 is a good choice, but the place voted for Schundler. I consider Schundler voters to be pretty hard core. They are the true believers. They will blame their portfolio problems all on Clinton. Maybe Ferguson.

[crasher]

I think Ferguson's opponent is real weak. I see what you mean about Dixie. That's a good point.

[DennisR]

Everyone PLEASE go to http://www.johnthune.com and donate a few bucks! We have to take this opportunity to get rid of Johnson! I do not even live in SD, but we need to get rid of all the Dem-Soc-Com-Lib-Utopians that we can. It's like your favorite sports team being close in the last minute of a game on the road--you cannot afford to lose! So go to Mr. Thune's website and donate a few bucks--$5, $10, whatever.

[c-b 1]

Trust me, between now and election day, expect indictments against major players in the Democrat Party.

I hope you are right, but I am not getting my hopes up, the Dims always seem to have something on someone, and get off scott free.

[crasher]

This is going to be an exciting election. I figure that the majority in the Senate, House, state legislatures, and Governor's races is up in the air. In order, I think Republicans are most likely to win a majority in the:

1. House 80%, and dropping 2. state legislatures 45% - currently at 49-47 Dem (2 ties, and Nebraska) 3. Senate 30%, and dropping 4. Governors 25%

[Torie]

Four GOP losses in the Senate? Wow. I will stick with 2 myself, with a high SD around that prediction.

[crasher]

Oops. This is how that should have looked. No I don't think the GOP will lose 4 seats in the Senate. I think a median-range guess would be a loss of 0 or 1 for the Republicans.

Odds Reps hold majority after election 2002:

1. House 80%, and dropping

2. state legislatures 45% - currently at 49-47 Dem (2 ties, and Nebraska)

3. Senate 30%, and dropping

4. Governors 25%

[crasher]

You are predicting a net loss of 2 by the GOP in the Senate?

[Coop]

I just hope the stock market shows some life in mid-September to October.

I personally think the market is going to show some more signs of life this week. But do NOT put any "stock" in my opinion; Lord knows I've been wrong before. :-) But there seem to be a lot of rich analysts and players sitting on the sidelines, just itching to buy in.

[frmrda]

Here's something that was in Novak's column yesterday. I take a good bit of stock in it since it seems to come straight from the Dems, who have the "inside" data. Good news and bad news. Still, i think if there's a win, it will be Talent and not Ganske.

Endangered in Iowa

National Democratic strategists have downgraded three-term Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa to ''toss-up'' status for re-election this year along with two of the party's other Midwestern incumbent senators: Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Tim Johnson of South Dakota.

Harkin is considered vulnerable on healthcare because of his Republican opponent: Rep. Greg Ganske, a physician who has gone beyond his party's position on health issues. In a recent closed-door meeting with other Democratic senators up for re-election this year, Harkin declared final passage of prescription drug subsidies important to his campaign.

A footnote: One Midwestern Democratic incumbent upgraded from ''toss-up'' is Sen. Jean Carnahan of Missouri, now regarded as a favorite against former Rep. Jim Talent.

[FairWitness]

We have to support the Republicans,in any way that we can-by volunteering at the HQ or sending a few dollars to the candidates.

Dittos. I have already contributed to Jim Talent here in Missouri and will contribute in near future to Thune and Coleman.