Todays Stock Market Thread (DJIA 7784.58 (-234.68; -2.93%) NASDAQ 1282.55 (-36.60; -2.77%)

[Vets_Husband_and_Wife]

I hadn't thought about the October factor. I've heard of it,.. but honestly don't understand it. Isn't that a time when earnings reports come out, or just a bad time of year? I can't recall.

Todays ending numbers will be anyones guess. The Market has been so unstable, that we could actually see it end in the + column. But if it does.. it won't last. This just isn't over yet. The fat lady hasn't sang yet, she has warmed up.. but the singing is still to come, don't you think?

[backhoe]

This is just FYI, FWIW- I haven't used it in years, but the "volume indicator" used to be very good for predicting short-term price levels. It is extremely simple- just look at a chart of whatever indicator you use- DJIA, S & P, whatever, and note where the peak volume is, whether going up or down-- that will be about half-way in either direction. If Friday was indeed the heaviest day, the market therefore should be about halfway down.

And I again stress, I have not used it in years- it used to be a very good indicator, and it will be interesting to see if it is still accurate.

[ken5050]

Sorry, but a bad example..the RR's got huge land grants....much of mid town Park Ave was developed by the NY Central......and the tracks today are valuable right of ways..for fiber optic cable...

[Denver Ditdat]

I hate 'LOL"..........LOL

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!

[Soren]

I am buying today. So there!!!

Wish you luck. What are you buying, if you don't mind saying?

[Southack]

"In my view, this bear capitulation is serious business. I hope we are near the progress of bottoming. This afternoon's close will tell who's got the momentum: the hedge fund shorties and panickers or the buyers. I doubt we'll close any better than 2% down across the major indices. It's a very odd time. We have a relatively sound economy but an emotive and quite Bearish market. Usually a big Bear like this is accompanied by a poor economy."

The "disconnect" between the market and our economy is that we still have a pricing bubble left on Wall Street. We've still got triple-digit P/E's on EBAY and AMAT, hardly the stuff that "bottoms" in the market are made from.

The question is whether the massive market price gyrations are going to give us a fast Bear or a slow Bear.

For me, I'd prefer to see all of the pain at once, but it's unlikely to happen that way.

There are simply too many contradictory "signals" for traders to "agree" on the direction of the Market. We've got low inflation, low interest rates, and high productivity on one side indicating "Buy", and we've got outrageous P/E's, accounting fiascos, and corporate fraud all screaming "Sell" on the other side.

Those two forces are colliding forcefully, and this impact is going to toss up a lot of smoke.

The REAL direction of the market won't even be known until we see the size of the 9/11 patriotic rally. In the meantime, we're bound to get a few bad disclosures prior to the August 14 accounting deadline - as corporate CEO's perform world-class CYA operations.

[Vets_Husband_and_Wife]

Why not wait until a new bull has been firmly established and enter then? This is more consistent with the advice of some of the best traders in history, Jesse Livermore for example.

The only reason I can think of is "greed".

If we go into a TRUE Bull Market,.. then yeah, why not be safe and invest then? If it is truly a Bull Market it will continue to climb. Excellent advice!! Thanks

[ken5050]

What, pray tell?

[sibb1213]

We are out here but not much to add to the comments already posted. I'm old enough to know it will come back and you just sit and wait. You youngsters should be buying. My concern is my retirement (which I'm now in) and the effect on the elections in November. The Sheeple get vengeful during elections and they have to blame someone. Many of them will listen to the screaming by the demorats and vote against Republicans. I hope I'm wrong. Market coming back up from its low as we speak!

[Soren]

I hear Warren Buffitt started buying last week

That's interesting. Anybody know what he's buying? Because that is the key.

[Destructor]

Hurry fools! Call your Broker and sell everything, so that I can buy it! Don't delay make that call now, before you lose it all!! Destructor thanks you.

[Vets_Husband_and_Wife]

Or perhaps we will be neighbors in cardboard boxes on skid row in a couple of years.

Boy, I sure hope not!! :o)

Although the aspect of neighbors was closer than you think. We used to live in Alaska, for 9 years. Eagle River.

[mwl1]

My worry is that in 1982 the market did not rally until after the midterm elections.

How ironic and, yes, unfair, it would be for the Bush administration and GOP to have to pay the political price for cleaning up the corruption and cesspool created by its predecessor.

It bears repeating: RATS are scheming liars.

[wardaddy]

My family has a good manager in NYC. He has staved the bleeding for the past 18 months fairly well, but we are all worried that we are simply going to have to sit back now and absorb this semi-panic.

The emotional pressure on the market is superficial in my view but it could take us further down. What worries me more is the uncertainty of the war on terror and the lack of a middle class birth rate to supplant the boomers and their earning power effect on the market of the past 20 odd years or so. The latter concern is very macro I realize but it will at some point become relevant. The modern prepoderance of hedge funds also adds a lot of weight to any Bear's shoulders. I don't think the markets would dive quite so sharply without the large presence of shorters. It's probably the easiest money they have ever made.

[Vets_Husband_and_Wife]

He did? I wonder what he was buying?

[Kozak]

The "Lock Box" is full of IOU's with OUR names on them....

[mwl1]

Now down only 146 according to CNBC

[RightWhale]

It seems as if its going down 200-300 pts a day and then holding level.

Actually, since the middle of May it has been steadily declining and even faster recently. Each person along the way who announced "this is the bottom" has been shot. Once all the bulls have been disposed of in this manner, we may see a return to fundamental analysis.

[Vets_Husband_and_Wife]

How ironic and, yes, unfair, it would be for the Bush administration and GOP to have to pay the political price for cleaning up the corruption and cesspool created by its predecessor.

So true!! You have to "hope" that the public is smarter than that.. but then they voted Clintoon into office for 8 years. Sad.. very sad. Now I'm REALLY worried. (I hope Americans "collectively" woke up after 9/11, but time will tell)

[RooRoobird14]

Hubby and I down $400k since January 2000.........sigh.......we've white-knuckled it the whole time and have held on (assorted Janus mutual funds).......I'm getting really sick of this.....