Posted on 06/28/2002 4:57:08 PM PDT by Charlesj
"The Coming Attack" by J. R. Nyquist
On May 18 the New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence had intercepted a “troubling series of communications among Al Qaeda operatives” about an intensive effort “to carry out an operation as big as or bigger than the Sept. 11 attacks….” According to the Times, the details of al Qaeda’s plans are yet unknown. “There’s just a lot of chatter in the system again,” one official told the Times. This “chatter” is alarming because it contains references to attacks that would cause “vast numbers of American casualties.” What kinds of attacks are indicated? In the last few weeks al Qaeda spokesmen have begun to publicly discuss what the Americans can expect.
In a recent message broadcast on al Jazeera television in the Middle East, al Qaeda spokesman and Kuwaiti-born Muslim cleric Sulaiman Abu Ghaith said that Osama bin Laden is preparing further attacks on the United States. “The al Qaeda leadership is 98 percent intact,” said Abu Ghaith, and bin Laden is still running the show. Earlier this month Abu Ghaith reportedly said, “America should get ready and fasten its safety belt. We will come at them from a direction they do not expect. Yes, we will make attacks but at the right time, at the place we choose after the fashion we please.”
The place of attack will almost certainly be inside the United States and the time may be soon. The Arabic Sahab website (ÇáÕÝÍÉ ÇáÚÑÈíÉ ÇáÅÓáÇãíÉ ÓÍÇÈ ) has reported that Osama bin Laden will be releasing a video on July 4. The timing is suggestive, adding subtle confirmation to earlier reports that an attack against America has been planned for July. More than two weeks ago the website www.alneda.com (also now defunct) briefly carried a message in Arabic from Abu Ghaith that said, “We are still at the beginning of the road. The Americans have not yet suffered from us what we have suffered from them.” He then added that Islam has “the right to kill four million Americans, including one million children, displace double that figure and injure and cripple hundreds of thousands.”
The key comment in Abu Ghaith’s statement is his reference to “displacing double” the figure killed. Chemical and biological weapons cannot do this in the stated proportions. Furthermore, an attacker cannot come up with large approximate casualty projections for biological and chemical weapons, where the results of attacks depend on weather and variable weapon potency (often incalculable). Only nuclear weapons aimed at cities promise such casualty figures.
What kind of bombs would be needed for such results?
A handful of small tactical nuclear devices with yields between one and 10 kilotons could not produce such a large result. The Hiroshima bomb, which was 15 kilotons, only managed to kill 100,000 people. Today’s American cities would probably sustain fewer casualties than a 1945 Japanese city because of modern earthquake and fire standards. Even if the Hiroshima result could be replicated under American conditions, forty Hiroshima bombs would be required to kill 4 million Americans. Quite naturally, it is improbable that al Qaeda would be able to acquire, let alone manage, forty nuclear devices. If Abu Ghaith’s statements reflect an actual plan of attack, it would mean that al Qaeda has several large-yield nuclear devices in the 100 to 500 kiloton range. Such devices could effectively gut a major city, killing millions and leaving millions homeless. Furthermore, the successful use of such weapons against seven U.S. cities might collapse the U.S. economy, discredit the U.S. government and demoralize the American people. Such an attack would also make good on the terrorist promise that the U.S. dollar will become absolutely worthless in short order.
But are Abu Ghaith’s pronouncements reliable? Are they, perhaps, intended to frighten or impress weak-minded people?
It is significant that Ghaith’s statements mirror similar statements made privately among al Qaeda operatives. As a rule of thumb: when secret communications reflect public pronouncements, it is time to pay close attention. Under such circumstances, U.S. officials should be exhaustively investigating all reports suggestive of a possible nuclear attack.
When would such an attack take place?
The story of Lebanese-born American Michael Hamdan may be relevant. Hamdan says he overheard a mobile phone conversation in Arabic about a projected attack on Las Vegas: “We are here in the city of corruption,” the Arab speakers allegedly stated, “the city of gambling and prostitution, the city of unbelievers.” They spoke of hitting the city on America’s “day of freedom,” the Fourth of July. While Hamdan’s testimony did not impress the FBI lie detectors, Independence Day has shown up elsewhere in reports related to terror. In fact, the Fourth of July has shown up in the internal al Qaeda “chatter” before. Also remember, as stated earlier, the Arabic Sahab website claims that bin Laden will deliver a special “televised address to the world” via videotape on July 4.
Statements from bin Laden since Sept. 11 have been few and far between. Normally talkative and in love with publicity, bin Laden’s great silence in recent months has been taken by some as evidence that he is dead. Now we are told to expect to hear from him on American Independence Day. Are all these references to one special day merely coincidental?
With limited information, nobody outside of al Qaeda can say with any certainty. What is certain, however, is that the United States remains vulnerable. The basic security problem that brought us 9/11 has not been solved. America has wasted the last nine months, failing to deal adequately with the domestic terror threat. This is obvious when it comes to the issue of foreign infiltrators determined to import nuclear, biological or chemical terror. Despite 9/11, American’s continue to put civil liberties first and security last. The prevailing mindset in the country emphasizes civil liberties at the expense of security, so that law enforcement, counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism are yet hamstrung.
The terrifying significance of countless enemy aliens operating in the United States has not registered. The fact that mass destruction weapons could be smuggled into the country has not altered the country’s adherence to political ideals that have always given way during times of war. But not today.
According to sources in law enforcement, forty terrorist infiltrators are believed to have entered the Los Angeles area by boat in early June. There are clues suggestive of a maritime terrorist attack against San Francisco. It seems that a “Middle Eastern” man recently took the ferry to Alcatraz. When the boat arrived on the island he didn’t get off. Instead, he videotaped naval traffic in the Bay while using a stopwatch. In another incident, dating back to October, three Middle Eastern men boarded a ferry at Pier 41 for Alameda. One of them alarmed the crew by climbing to the upper deck to watch the captain. Meanwhile his associates videotaped Anchorage Terminal 9, also using a stopwatch. In yet another San Francisco incident, dated Oct. 20, six Golden Gate Transit uniforms were taken from a ferry employee’s car, along with ferry schedules and maritime maps. The thieves neglected to steal money and CDs that were left in the car.
What does all this suspicious activity indicate?
Whatever the terrorists are planning, San Francisco is a chief target. There is growing concern that a sea-borne attack against U.S. cities is coming. And why would terrorists be interested in the ferry schedule to Alcatraz? Perhaps it makes sense because Alcatraz offers reliable sheltering and is a good observation point for terrorist operatives immediately after a nuclear weapon is set to detonate in a shipping container sitting at an anchorage terminal.
This column is intended to frighten Americans because Americans ought to be frightened. At present the country acts as if 9/11 did not happen. We are not taking sufficient steps, we are not acting with the warlike emphasis of times past, because America is not sufficiently alarmed. Apparently we cannot rouse ourselves to overhaul inadequate security measures, to pay the price of greater protection, on a basis of simple prudence. It seems that our hair must be made to stand on end. Unfortunately, if something dreadful happens next week (i.e., something nuclear) the attending panic might produce an even worse result – paralysis.
I pray that nothing happens. I pray that the terrorists lack the weapons since they do not lack the will to use them. For it is certain that we lack the will to eject all resident and illegal aliens from the offending region. And lacking that will, infiltration by enemy operatives is relatively easy.
© 2002 Jeffrey R. Nyquist
If we have a bad attack in this nation, the Christian Arabs might want to stay away from the Muslims and the Mosques. There would be a lot of seriously upset Americans. People who even look Mid-Eastern might want to stay indoors for a few days.
If an Arab says he's going to kill you, it probably means he's going to steal that nickel you dropped on the pavement by accident.
It could go either way. At the moment, I think that they have the potential to do more.
The Arabs might want to start smiling a lot when they say things like that.
And many non-Arabs are Mohammedans. The fact is, we don't have the convenience of being able to identify our enemies just by looking at them. It's one of the things that make this foe so formidable.
It is also dangerous for other groups. Even Sikhs were being attacked after 9/11.
For hijacked airliners to really work, it has to be an attack coordinated en masse, and directed against a variety of strategic targets (centers of population, dams, nuclear power plants, government buildings, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, etc. etc.). Sure, an occasional airliner may crash into something, somewhere, someday, but, like in Monty Python's "Holy Grail" movie, we, the USA, would be able to shrug it off, saying "Ah, nothing but a mere flesh wound!"
To prospective hijackers, the element of surprise is gone forever in these sorts of hijacking attempts. Nowadays, any attempt at a hijacking will be met with deadly resistance.... sure, the incompetent or compromised screeners at airports may let a few hijackers through the screening process, but by and large I don't think airline cockpits are that penetrable any more. Sure, hijackers may hold crew and passengers hostage, and threaten to (or actually) start killing off people until they get into the pilot's seat. But I think pilots are on strict orders to not let ANYone into the cockpit. They would simply take the plane and ditch it in the nearest immediate ditching site, even if it were out at sea, rather than risk it being hijacked and flown into a strategic land target.
Personally, I'm all for continued profiling of Middle Eastern (or any other suspicious) passengers booked on passenger flights. If there are any more than 3 or 4 Arab-descended males known ahead of time to be booked on a flight, I think the flight crew simply needs to be made aware of it, and perhaps they could quietly place a few extra air marshals on that particular flight. End of discussion. Nobody knows any better, nobody gets hurt. And nobody's civil rights get unduly trampled.
Fly the friendly skies! You're now free to move about the country!
Whatever they are, they need to be exterminated like rats.
Except to visit the new National Glass Sculpture exhibit.
Years?
I heard similar stories about Armenian Christians being attacked. Going after dark-skinned people randomly on the street obviously isn't the way to go about defending your country.
You are right, of course. I guess these people were just handy.
Let's get real! Doesn't do much good checking me, but may have caught someone, if terminal was connected to FBI files.
I'm a big strappin' white guy, and I've been scanned and inspected and scrutinized by the police too, in my travels around this country. Yeah, so?? Big deal! It never bothered me!
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