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Believe it or not - Playing the war game - The disturbing results of a recent war simulation
Har har etz ^ | Saturday, June 22, 2002 Tamuz 12, 5762 | Amnon Barzilai

Posted on 06/22/2002 8:16:51 AM PDT by Phil V.

Saturday, June 22, 2002 Tamuz 12, 5762

w w w . h a a r e t z d a i l y . c o m


Believe it or not

The events began to unfold on the morning of June 5, 2002: Almost nine months after the terror attack on New York's World Trade Towers, the United States launched an attack on the strongholds of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Thus began the war scenario in the simulation game conducted by the School of Government and Policy at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Zeev Maoz. But from that point on, the game branched out into surprising directions that left even the experienced players gaping.

About two weeks ago, the participants met for three days at Kibbutz Nir Etzion. Overlooking an amazing view from Mount Carmel, they conducted a war game. Unwittingly, as pawns in the hands of the simulation management that devised the scenario, the participants expressed the government of Israel's ineffectiveness and paralysis, its predictable moves and lack of imagination and creativity. Israel's decision-makers were caught in the grip of the concept.

The idea - developed by Maoz and Haim Assa, who served as head of the strategic team of the late prime minister Yitzhak Rabin - was presented to National Security Council chairman Major General Uzi Dayan over six months ago. The two proposed to Dayan that they hold a war simulation with an emphasis on the policy aspects, so that the lessons would provide food for thought to decision-makers and also perhaps improve their functioning. A management team was set up and comprised of Dayan, Maoz, Assa and Brigadier General (res.) Dr. Shimon Naveh.

Premature enthusiasm

In order for the game to approximate reality closely, Dayan wanted to involve senior officers to represent the General Staff and also to put them in the other side's shoes, and not just use experts from academia and the media. Thus, for example, it was suggested that the coordinator of government activities in the West Bank and Gaza, Major General Amos Gilad, would play the head of the Palestinian team and perhaps assume the role of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. His successor at Military Intelligence, research division head Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser, was to be director general of the Arab League. The head of the Plans and Policy Directorate, Major General Giora Eiland, was supposed to have represented the Israel Defense Forces General Staff.

Dayan expected that there would be sensitivity on the political level and, therefore, the only one to hold a position in the virtual government was Minister Dan Meridor, who was happy to accept the offer to be prime minister.

However, the enthusiasm was premature. The Israeli establishment had reservations about the American model from which the initiators took their idea. Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Shaul Mofaz reacted angrily and forbade his officers to take part. The Prime Minister's Office also reacted coldly. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said that he was not interested in war games in which the players have anything to do with him or his government.

Those administering the exercise figured that Sharon was suspicious about the meanings or interpretations that would be given to the game. Though it was promised that the simulation would take place under a heavy blanket of secrecy, there could be no guarantees against leaks. The suspicious Sharon might have suspected that they would serve his opponents. And also, either the lessons drawn from the game would limit his actions, or would be held against him if something under his responsibility did not function well.

Nevertheless, the decision was not to give up on the simulation, and its management was transferred from the National Security Council to TAU's School of Government. Instead of officers on active duty, senior reserve officers were invited. Meridor was replaced by Dr. Uzi Arad, who was the policy advisor to former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Former chief of staff Lieutenant General (res.) Dan Shomron was appointed defense minister. Dr. Yehuda Ben-Meir, formerly the deputy foreign minister, was bumped up to foreign minister and Major General (res.) Dr. Yitzhak Ben-Yisrael was appointed chief of staff. The attorney-general was Prof. Ze'ev Segal. The representatives of the right in the government were played by Yisrael Harel, and the representatives of the left by former minister Prof. Yuli Tamir.

On the Palestinian side, former head of Military Intelligence, Major General (res.) Shlomo Gazit, played Arafat. Israel's former ambassador to Jordan, Oded Aran, served as U.S. President George W. Bush and Ha'aretz commentator Ze'ev Schiff played Vice President Richard Cheney. On the Arab team, Middle East specialist Prof. Dan Shiftan took the role of King Abdullah of Jordan and other Middle East specialists represented other Arab states. An international team and a terror team were set up. Participants on the media team were Prof. Gabi Weiman, Dr. Mina Zemach and journalists Yair Stern and Rami Tal.

Collapse of Jordan

Several hours after the American attack on Iraq was launched, an American spy satellite reported movements by Iraqi military forces in the direction of Jordan. As a result, during the next five days, the following events occurred: Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Jordan flew Iraqi flags and displayed pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. The Palestinians rioted and the Jordanian army lost control. The kingdom was on the verge of anarchy. A correspondent for the Sky network reported that, according to rumors from Amman, King Abdullah had been killed in an armed attack on his vehicle. At a joint press conference, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned Israel not to exploit the degenerating situation in Jordan in order to invade its territories.

The simulation game came into play on June 10, the fifth day of the American attack on Iraq. Because of the fear of an Iraqi invasion of Jordan, the government of Israel took several steps: It requested consultation with the United States, called up reserves and ordered the Home Front Command to distribute protective kits against atomic, biological and chemical attacks on civilians for fear that ground-to-ground missiles armed with these substances might be launched.

Before that, the White House made a surprising move that, in retrospect, had far-reaching effects on events: At a press conference, the president declared his support for the collapsing Jordanian regime and for sending rapid deployment forces to save it. The PA appealed to Israel's Defense Ministry with a request that protective kits be distributed to the Palestinian civilian population as well. Those in charge of the game decided to leak this to the international media.

From the headquarters it set up, the game management headed by Prof. Maoz used a computer to follow the work of the various teams, which were located in nearby buildings. Each team had a student and a psychologist attached to it. One documented the events in the room; the other evaluated the feelings and the relationships that developed among the team members, and among them and the other teams.

"I'm playing God here," joked Maoz when, from time to time, he sent out instructions to the teams. Once he limited the duration of the reserve call-up to two days. Another time, he restrained the response of the terror organization team when he estimated that an exaggerated number of attacks would overturn the intentions of the game.

Although the battles were raging in Iraq, the simulation game's managers asked that attention be focused on three areas: the Palestinian ferment in Jordan, the PA and the government of Israel. In the latter, an argument broke out over the future of Jordan. The right wing (Harel) argued that a Palestinian takeover of Jordan would be a long-term strategic outlet for lowering pressure for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank. At his own initiative, Harel contacted the Palestinian team about this, but was rebuffed. The left wing (Tamir) dismissed this and said scornfully that on this issue, the right represents "a vociferous but very small element."

`Ripe fruit'

The chief of staff suggested deploying IDF troops around the centers of power in Jordan, to protect them from the Palestinians. The right pressured: It won't work. The Americans can deploy forces wherever they want, but if 70 percent of the population is not prepared to come to terms with the regime ...

The chief of staff: "In Lebanon, the Americans were successful."

The right: "If the Americans see that the royal house is not significant, they will leave Jordan. And then a Palestinian regime will arise and we will be facing another hostile state."

The media pressured the government of Israel to react to rumors that Israel would take a positive view of a Palestinian takeover of Jordan.

The prime minister replied: "The rumors do not reflect Israeli policy. Our policy is to restore law and order in Jordan quickly."

The foreign minister reported that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had told him regarding the situation in Jordan that "we should not think of anything connected to moving people from place to place."

In the government, the following discussion ensued:

The prime minister: "I want to take preemptive action."

The chief of staff: "I suggest that we don't take the IDF into Jordan. But this needs a policy discussion, not a military discussion."

The foreign minister: "Let us suppose that the regime falls and a republic is declared in Jordan."

The defense minister: "This means that a Palestinian state would arise between the Iraqi border and Qalqilyah."

The prime minister: "What are the alternatives for Israel? Can the Plans and Policy Directorate of the IDF produce alternatives?"

The defense minister: "The state of Palestine will be established in Jordan."

The foreign minister: "What do you gain from this?"

The right: "The public opinion surveys are showing full support for the establishment of the state of Palestine in Jordan."

The prime minister, in an interim summation, expresses satisfaction with his policy. Syria is sitting on the sidelines. Lebanon deploys its army in the south. "The righteous have their work done for them by others. The Americans are dealing with Iraq, in Jordan there are upheavals and to this day, not a single Israeli has been killed," notes the prime minister (Arad).

The left mentioned the way then prime minister Yitzhak Shamir acted during the Gulf War, adding: "We are satisfied with the situation and with the government's policy of restraint."

At the same time, the Palestinian team also discussed the situation in Jordan. The collapse of the monarchy and the establishment of a Palestinian state are not in accord with Arafat's interests.

Said Arafat (Gazit): "The Israelis want to get rid of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan. A Palestinian state in Jordan will fall into their hands like ripe fruit. This could serve as an excuse for transfer and will distract attention from our effort to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank."

Chemical missiles in Israel

Warning sirens shake Israel on the seventh day of the American attack on Iraq. The Israeli radar system warns of an attack by 15 missiles launched from Iraq. Twelve of the missiles are intercepted by Arrow missiles and three missiles bearing chemical warheads land in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Yavneh. There are casualties.

The government discusses its response to the firing of the missiles. The chief of staff reports that the Americans are planning to bomb Iraq with atomic weapons and have called upon the inhabitants of Baghdad to evacuate the city. A Channel One reporter bursts into the government meeting room and announces that a smart bomb has hit Saddam's bunker and killed him. Then the government also wakes up to action.

The chief of staff: "What do you think of eliminating Arafat on the background of the general upheaval?"

The defense minister supports the proposal.

The prime minister: "An IDF force has acted in response to the Palestinian provocations and aggression and has eliminated the leaders of the PA and Arafat."

By Amnon Barzilai




TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; Philosophy
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To: SCHROLL
If the House of Saud are found to be complict in the attacks, they'll go from selling oil to working at a 7-11 rather quickly IMHO.

Oh, happy day !

81 posted on 06/24/2002 3:38:29 AM PDT by happygrl
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To: stryker
"...it is up to us to wake up and start screaming to our representatives that we will not absorb an attack with a WMD when such an attack can clearly be averted by closing our borders, checking every shipment of every package that enters our harbors, deporting all non-resident aliens of Islamic origin, and announcing a new form of the MAD doctrine. As to the second problem, even though the enemy is a religion, it is a unique religion because it is a religion with a country and a city as its' capital. In fact, it is a religion that cannot be worshipped as required by its' own mandates without a pilgrimage to the city of Mecca. Therefore, a version of the MAD doctrine can be developed stating that if the United States is attacked with a WMD, then upon thirty days notice, the holy city of Medina will be destroyed with a small nuclear warhead such that no one will be able to inhabit Medina for hundreds of years. Should the United States be attacked a second time with a WMD, the city of Mecca will be destroyed on the same terms. There will be no lose of life due to the notice period, but the religion itself will not be able to be practiced in the manner it heretofore has been practiced for a thousand years. "

Absolutely agree with this strategy, with one question: why not make Mecca the first target ? Its destruction is what will undermine the religion. Otherwise, if only Medina is destroyed, they may take their revenge, even if they wait another 1000 years.

82 posted on 06/24/2002 3:52:03 AM PDT by happygrl
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To: The Ghost of Richard Nixon
All of this business with the Islamic crazies could have and should have been taken care of in response to 9-11. Instead we'll have to endure a tit-for-tat internecine conflict that may last for decades and may result in the needless deaths of millions of Americans.

Thanks for pointing out what should be obvious.

Bush lacks balls.

83 posted on 06/24/2002 3:56:38 AM PDT by happygrl
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To: Yehuda
"...because after your muslim friends slit your throat while you proclaim that you defended their rights to obliterate every Jew and Christian in the world, they will come for you children.

If you are muslim, drop dead and go to hell.

Couldn't say it better myself.

84 posted on 06/24/2002 4:03:16 AM PDT by happygrl
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To: Phil V.

Deir Yassin

By Mitchell Bard


The United Nations resolved that Jerusalem would be an international city apart from the Arab and Jewish states demarcated in the partition resolution. The 150,000 Jewish inhabitants were under constant military pressure; the 2,500 Jews living in the Old City were victims of an Arab blockade that lasted five months before they were forced to surrender on May 29, 1948. Prior to the surrender, and throughout the siege on Jerusalem, Jewish convoys tried to reach the city to alleviate the food shortage, which, by April, had become critical.

Meanwhile, the Arab forces, which had engaged in sporadic and unorganized ambushes since December 1947, began to make an organized attempt to cut off the highway linking Tel Aviv with Jerusalem - the city's only supply route. The Arabs controlled several strategic vantage points, which overlooked the highway and enabled them to fire on the convoys trying to reach the beleaguered city with supplies. Deir Yassin was situated on a hill, about 2600 feet high, which commanded a wide view of the vicinity and was located less than a mile from the suburbs of Jerusalem. The population was 750.1

On April 6, Operation Nachshon was launched to open the road to Jerusalem. The village of Deir Yassin was included on the list of Arab villages to be occupied as part of the operation. The following day Haganah commander David Shaltiel wrote to the leaders of the Lehi and Irgun:

I learn that you plan an attack on Deir Yassin. I wish to point out that the capture of Deir Yassin and its holding are one stage in our general plan. I have no objection to your carrying out the operation provided you are able to hold the village. If you are unable to do so I warn you against blowing up the village which will result in its inhabitants abandoning it and its ruins and deserted houses being occupied by foreign forces....Furthermore, if foreign forces took over, this would upset our general plan for establishing an airfield.2

The Irgun decided to attack Deir Yassin on April 9, while the Haganah was still engaged in the battle for Kastel. This was the first major Irgun attack against the Arabs. Previously, the Irgun and Lehi had concentrated their attacks against the British.

No Easy Battle

According to Irgun leader Menachem Begin, the assault was carried out by 100 members of that organization; other authors say it was as many as 132 men from both groups. Begin stated that a small open truck fitted with a loudspeaker was driven to the entrance of the village before the attack and broadcast a warning to civilians to evacuate the area, which many did.3 Most writers say the warning was never issued because the truck with the loudspeaker rolled into a ditch before it could broadcast the warning.4 One of the fighters said, the ditch was filled in and the truck continued on to the village. "One of us called out on the loudspeaker in Arabic, telling the inhabitants to put down their weapons and flee. I don't know if they heard, and I know these appeals had no effect."5

Contrary to revisionist histories that the town was filled with peaceful innocents, residents and foreign troops opened fire on the attackers. One fighter described his experience:

My unit stormed and passed the first row of houses. I was among the first to enter the village. There were a few other guys with me, each encouraging the other to advance. At the top of the street I saw a man in khaki clothing running ahead. I thought he was one of ours. I ran after him and told him, "advance to that house." Suddenly he turned around, aimed his rifle and shot. He was an Iraqi soldier. I was hit in the foot.6

The battle was ferocious and took several hours. The Irgun suffered 41 casualties, including four dead.

Counting the Dead

Surprisingly, after the “massacre,” the Irgun escorted a representative of the Red Cross through the town and held a press conference. The New York Times' subsequent description of the battle was essentially the same as Begin's. The Times said more than 200 Arabs were killed, 40 captured and 70 women and children were released. No hint of a massacre appeared in the report. “Paradoxically, the Jews say about 250 out of 400 village inhabitants [were killed], while Arab survivors say only 110 of 1,000.”7 A study by Bir Zeit University, based on discussions with each family from the village, arrived at a figure of 107 Arab civilians dead and 12 wounded, in addition to 13 "fighters," evidence that the number of dead was smaller than claimed and that the village did have troops based there.8 Other Arab sources have subsequently suggested the number may have been even lower.9

In fact, the attackers left open an escape corridor from the village and more than 200 residents left unharmed. For example, at 9:30 A.M., about five hours after the fighting started, the Lehi evacuated 40 old men, women and children on trucks and took them to a base in Sheikh Bader. Later, the Arabs were taken to East Jerusalem. Starting at 2:00 P.M., residents were taken out of the village. The trucks passed through the Orthodox neighborhood of Mea Shearim after the Sabbath had begun, so the neighborhood people cursed and spit at them, not because they were Arabs, but because the vehicles were desecrating the Sabbath. Seeing the Arabs in the hands of Jews also helped raise the morale of the people of Jerusalem who were despondent from the setbacks in the fighting to that point.10 Another source says 70 women and children were taken away and turned over to the British.11 If the intent was to massacre the inhabitants, no one would have been evacuated.


The village after the attack

After the remaining Arabs feigned surrender and then fired on the Jewish troops, some Jews killed Arab soldiers and civilians indiscriminately. None of the sources specify how many women and children were killed (the Times report said it was about half the victims; their original casualty figure came from the Irgun source), but there were some among the casualties. Any intentional murder of children or women is completely unjustified. At least some of the women who were killed, however, became targets because of men who tried to disguise themselves as women. The Irgun commander reported, for example, that the attackers "found men dressed as women and therefore they began to shoot at women who did not hasten to go down to the place designated for gathering the prisoners."12 Another story was told by a member of the Haganah who overheard a group of Arabs from Deir Yassin who said "the Jews found out that Arab warriors had disguised themselves as women. The Jews searched the women too. One of the people being checked realized he had been caught, took out a pistol and shot the Jewish commander. His friends, crazed with anger, shot in all directions and killed the Arabs in the area."13

Contrary to claims from Arab propagandists at the time and some since, no evidence has ever been produced that any women were raped. On the contrary, every villager ever interviewed has denied these allegations. Like many of the claims, this was a deliberate propaganda ploy, but one that backfired. Hazam Nusseibi, who worked for the Palestine Broadcasting Service in 1948, admitted being told by Hussein Khalidi, a Palestinian Arab leader, to fabricate the atrocity claims. Abu Mahmud, a Deir Yassin resident in 1948 told Khalidi "there was no rape," but Khalidi replied, "We have to say this, so the Arab armies will come to liberate Palestine from the Jews." Nusseibeh told the BBC 50 years later, "This was our biggest mistake. We did not realize how our people would react. As soon as they heard that women had been raped at Deir Yassin, Palestinians fled in terror."14

Reaction

The Jewish Agency, upon learning of the attack, immediately expressed its “horror and disgust.” It also sent a letter expressing the Agency's shock and disapproval to Transjordan's King Abdullah.

The Arab Higher Committee hoped exaggerated reports about a “massacre” at Deir Yassin would shock the population of the Arab countries into bringing pressure on their governments to intervene in Palestine. Instead, the immediate impact was to stimulate a new Palestinian exodus.

Just four days after the reports from Deir Yassin were published, an Arab force ambushed a Jewish convoy on the way to Hadassah Hospital, killing 77 Jews, including doctors, nurses, patients, and the director of the hospital. Another 23 people were injured. This massacre attracted little attention and is never mentioned by those who are quick to bring up Deir Yassin. Moreover, despite attacks such as this against the Jewish community in Palestine, in which more than 500 Jews were killed in the first four months after the partition decision alone, Jews did not flee.

The Palestinians knew, despite their rhetoric to the contrary, the Jews were not trying to annihilate them; otherwise, they would not have been allowed to evacuate Tiberias, Haifa or any of the other towns captured by the Jews. Moreover, the Palestinians could find sanctuary in nearby states. The Jews, however, had no place to run had they wanted to. They were willing to fight to the death for their country. It came to that for many, because the Arabs were interested in annihilating the Jews, as Secretary-General of the Arab League Azzam Pasha made clear in an interview with the BBC on the eve of the war (May 15, 1948): “The Arabs intend to conduct a war of extermination and momentous massacre which will be spoken of like the Mongolian massacres and the Crusades.”

References to Deir Yassin have remained a staple of anti-Israel propaganda for decades because the incident was unique.

Notes

1"Dayr Yasin," Bir Zeit University.
2Dan Kurzman, Genesis 1948, (OH: New American Library, Inc., 1970), p. 141.
3Menachem Begin, The Revolt, (NY: Nash Publishing, 1977), pp. xx-xxi, 162-163.
4See, for example, Amos Perlmutter, The Life and Times of Menachem Begin, (NY: Doubleday, 1987), p. 214; J. Bowyer Bell, Terror Out Of Zion, (NY: St. Martin*s Press, 1977), p. 292-96; Kurzman, p. 142.
5Uri Milstein, History of Israel's War of Independence. Vol. IV, (Lanham: University Press of America. 1999), p. 262.
6Milstein, p. 262.
7Kurzman, p. 148.
8Sharif Kanaana and Nihad Zitawi, "Deir Yassin," Monograph No. 4, Destroyed Palestinian Villages Documentation Project (Bir Zeit: Documentation Center of Bir Zeit University, 1987), p. 55.
9Sharif Kanaana, "Reinterpreting Deir Yassin," Bir Zeit University, (April 1998).
10Milstein, p. 267
11"Dayr Yasin," Bir Zeit University.
12Yehoshua Gorodenchik testimony at Jabotinsky Archives.
13Milstein, p. 276.
14"Israel and the Arabs: The 50 Year Conflict," BBC.

Photo: The Irgun Site


85 posted on 06/24/2002 4:14:10 AM PDT by dennisw
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To: monkeyshine
You have probably read the Deir Yassin material I posted just previously ....But there it is.
86 posted on 06/24/2002 4:16:41 AM PDT by dennisw
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To: Phil V.
You go, Phil! Cheer on the Palies!
87 posted on 06/24/2002 4:27:19 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: Yehuda
If you are muslim, drop dead and go to hell.

My sentiments exactly, Yehuda. I just didn't want to say it.

88 posted on 06/24/2002 4:32:19 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: mikegi
This is the nightmare scenario - no specific target to retaliate against. Worse still is the detonation of a small nuke in one of our big cities followed up by demands which, if not met, will result in more prepositioned nukes going off in our cities. Bush's only choice would be to succomb to the terrorists' demands while frantically searching for the loose nukes. The terrorists could greatly amplify the chaos here by naming a bunch of target cities.

These nukes can never be as large and numerous as ours. When such demands are made you know who your enemy is and who to demolish with a volley of our own nukes. 
UNLESS ..... You have a real nightmare where a party such as ChiComs fire off the first nuke and issue the threats and pretend they are from Islamic Jihadists. This way the ChiComs make a nice war between us and the Islamic world. I would not put it past them.

Unless someone salts the nuke with misleading elements, any nuke explosion can be identified as to what nuclear reactor the material was generated in.

89 posted on 06/24/2002 4:38:24 AM PDT by dennisw
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To: Phil V.
No. The Jordanians successfully defended Jerusalem until 1967. Before that, there wasn't a single Arab that called himself a 'Palestinian'.

Although, ironically, the PLO was already in existence prior to 1967, founded by an Egyptian, for the sole purpose of running the Jews into the sea.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

90 posted on 06/24/2002 6:07:32 AM PDT by solmar_israel
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To: crypt2k
If (a) the missiles are intercepted prior to their designated detonation points and (b) they actually distribute their payload more efficiently...then the missiles were badly mistargeted to begin with.
91 posted on 06/24/2002 6:11:12 AM PDT by Poohbah
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To: happygrl
I'm serious.

I am serious as a heart attack myself.

92 posted on 06/24/2002 6:44:59 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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Comment #93 Removed by Moderator

To: Phil V.
A.D.1967 Israel defeats Arab invading armies and occupies West Bank and all of Jerusalem. West Bank is under Israel occupation to this date. (December 1997).

I like your spin, let's see if this works for you.

Thomas Jefferson declares Independence from England.

The United States defeats invading English armies and occupies New England and all of Manhatten.

New England is under United States occupation to this date.

Invading armies that loose land have no right of return. Isreal took on the Arab countries in combat, and defeated them. They have every right to all lands they captured, with out question.

But, I would agree to give back Maine, Conn., Mass., and Delaware to the English "as is, no questions asked".

94 posted on 08/18/2002 3:59:58 AM PDT by snodog
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