Posted on 06/22/2002 8:16:51 AM PDT by Phil V.
Saturday, June 22, 2002 Tamuz 12, 5762
|
|
| w w w . h a a r e t z d a i l y . c o m |
|
|
|
|
|
Believe it or notThe events began to unfold on the morning of June 5, 2002: Almost nine months after the terror attack on New York's World Trade Towers, the United States launched an attack on the strongholds of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Thus began the war scenario in the simulation game conducted by the School of Government and Policy at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Zeev Maoz. But from that point on, the game branched out into surprising directions that left even the experienced players gaping.
About two weeks ago, the participants met for three days at Kibbutz Nir Etzion. Overlooking an amazing view from Mount Carmel, they conducted a war game. Unwittingly, as pawns in the hands of the simulation management that devised the scenario, the participants expressed the government of Israel's ineffectiveness and paralysis, its predictable moves and lack of imagination and creativity. Israel's decision-makers were caught in the grip of the concept.
The idea - developed by Maoz and Haim Assa, who served as head of the strategic team of the late prime minister Yitzhak Rabin - was presented to National Security Council chairman Major General Uzi Dayan over six months ago. The two proposed to Dayan that they hold a war simulation with an emphasis on the policy aspects, so that the lessons would provide food for thought to decision-makers and also perhaps improve their functioning. A management team was set up and comprised of Dayan, Maoz, Assa and Brigadier General (res.) Dr. Shimon Naveh.
Premature enthusiasm
In order for the game to approximate reality closely, Dayan wanted to involve senior officers to represent the General Staff and also to put them in the other side's shoes, and not just use experts from academia and the media. Thus, for example, it was suggested that the coordinator of government activities in the West Bank and Gaza, Major General Amos Gilad, would play the head of the Palestinian team and perhaps assume the role of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. His successor at Military Intelligence, research division head Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser, was to be director general of the Arab League. The head of the Plans and Policy Directorate, Major General Giora Eiland, was supposed to have represented the Israel Defense Forces General Staff.
Dayan expected that there would be sensitivity on the political level and, therefore, the only one to hold a position in the virtual government was Minister Dan Meridor, who was happy to accept the offer to be prime minister.
However, the enthusiasm was premature. The Israeli establishment had reservations about the American model from which the initiators took their idea. Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Shaul Mofaz reacted angrily and forbade his officers to take part. The Prime Minister's Office also reacted coldly. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said that he was not interested in war games in which the players have anything to do with him or his government.
Those administering the exercise figured that Sharon was suspicious about the meanings or interpretations that would be given to the game. Though it was promised that the simulation would take place under a heavy blanket of secrecy, there could be no guarantees against leaks. The suspicious Sharon might have suspected that they would serve his opponents. And also, either the lessons drawn from the game would limit his actions, or would be held against him if something under his responsibility did not function well.
Nevertheless, the decision was not to give up on the simulation, and its management was transferred from the National Security Council to TAU's School of Government. Instead of officers on active duty, senior reserve officers were invited. Meridor was replaced by Dr. Uzi Arad, who was the policy advisor to former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Former chief of staff Lieutenant General (res.) Dan Shomron was appointed defense minister. Dr. Yehuda Ben-Meir, formerly the deputy foreign minister, was bumped up to foreign minister and Major General (res.) Dr. Yitzhak Ben-Yisrael was appointed chief of staff. The attorney-general was Prof. Ze'ev Segal. The representatives of the right in the government were played by Yisrael Harel, and the representatives of the left by former minister Prof. Yuli Tamir.
On the Palestinian side, former head of Military Intelligence, Major General (res.) Shlomo Gazit, played Arafat. Israel's former ambassador to Jordan, Oded Aran, served as U.S. President George W. Bush and Ha'aretz commentator Ze'ev Schiff played Vice President Richard Cheney. On the Arab team, Middle East specialist Prof. Dan Shiftan took the role of King Abdullah of Jordan and other Middle East specialists represented other Arab states. An international team and a terror team were set up. Participants on the media team were Prof. Gabi Weiman, Dr. Mina Zemach and journalists Yair Stern and Rami Tal.
Collapse of Jordan
Several hours after the American attack on Iraq was launched, an American spy satellite reported movements by Iraqi military forces in the direction of Jordan. As a result, during the next five days, the following events occurred: Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Jordan flew Iraqi flags and displayed pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. The Palestinians rioted and the Jordanian army lost control. The kingdom was on the verge of anarchy. A correspondent for the Sky network reported that, according to rumors from Amman, King Abdullah had been killed in an armed attack on his vehicle. At a joint press conference, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned Israel not to exploit the degenerating situation in Jordan in order to invade its territories.
The simulation game came into play on June 10, the fifth day of the American attack on Iraq. Because of the fear of an Iraqi invasion of Jordan, the government of Israel took several steps: It requested consultation with the United States, called up reserves and ordered the Home Front Command to distribute protective kits against atomic, biological and chemical attacks on civilians for fear that ground-to-ground missiles armed with these substances might be launched.
Before that, the White House made a surprising move that, in retrospect, had far-reaching effects on events: At a press conference, the president declared his support for the collapsing Jordanian regime and for sending rapid deployment forces to save it. The PA appealed to Israel's Defense Ministry with a request that protective kits be distributed to the Palestinian civilian population as well. Those in charge of the game decided to leak this to the international media.
From the headquarters it set up, the game management headed by Prof. Maoz used a computer to follow the work of the various teams, which were located in nearby buildings. Each team had a student and a psychologist attached to it. One documented the events in the room; the other evaluated the feelings and the relationships that developed among the team members, and among them and the other teams.
"I'm playing God here," joked Maoz when, from time to time, he sent out instructions to the teams. Once he limited the duration of the reserve call-up to two days. Another time, he restrained the response of the terror organization team when he estimated that an exaggerated number of attacks would overturn the intentions of the game.
Although the battles were raging in Iraq, the simulation game's managers asked that attention be focused on three areas: the Palestinian ferment in Jordan, the PA and the government of Israel. In the latter, an argument broke out over the future of Jordan. The right wing (Harel) argued that a Palestinian takeover of Jordan would be a long-term strategic outlet for lowering pressure for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank. At his own initiative, Harel contacted the Palestinian team about this, but was rebuffed. The left wing (Tamir) dismissed this and said scornfully that on this issue, the right represents "a vociferous but very small element."
`Ripe fruit'
The chief of staff suggested deploying IDF troops around the centers of power in Jordan, to protect them from the Palestinians. The right pressured: It won't work. The Americans can deploy forces wherever they want, but if 70 percent of the population is not prepared to come to terms with the regime ...
The chief of staff: "In Lebanon, the Americans were successful."
The right: "If the Americans see that the royal house is not significant, they will leave Jordan. And then a Palestinian regime will arise and we will be facing another hostile state."
The media pressured the government of Israel to react to rumors that Israel would take a positive view of a Palestinian takeover of Jordan.
The prime minister replied: "The rumors do not reflect Israeli policy. Our policy is to restore law and order in Jordan quickly."
The foreign minister reported that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had told him regarding the situation in Jordan that "we should not think of anything connected to moving people from place to place."
In the government, the following discussion ensued:
The prime minister: "I want to take preemptive action."
The chief of staff: "I suggest that we don't take the IDF into Jordan. But this needs a policy discussion, not a military discussion."
The foreign minister: "Let us suppose that the regime falls and a republic is declared in Jordan."
The defense minister: "This means that a Palestinian state would arise between the Iraqi border and Qalqilyah."
The prime minister: "What are the alternatives for Israel? Can the Plans and Policy Directorate of the IDF produce alternatives?"
The defense minister: "The state of Palestine will be established in Jordan."
The foreign minister: "What do you gain from this?"
The right: "The public opinion surveys are showing full support for the establishment of the state of Palestine in Jordan."
The prime minister, in an interim summation, expresses satisfaction with his policy. Syria is sitting on the sidelines. Lebanon deploys its army in the south. "The righteous have their work done for them by others. The Americans are dealing with Iraq, in Jordan there are upheavals and to this day, not a single Israeli has been killed," notes the prime minister (Arad).
The left mentioned the way then prime minister Yitzhak Shamir acted during the Gulf War, adding: "We are satisfied with the situation and with the government's policy of restraint."
At the same time, the Palestinian team also discussed the situation in Jordan. The collapse of the monarchy and the establishment of a Palestinian state are not in accord with Arafat's interests.
Said Arafat (Gazit): "The Israelis want to get rid of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan. A Palestinian state in Jordan will fall into their hands like ripe fruit. This could serve as an excuse for transfer and will distract attention from our effort to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank."
Chemical missiles in Israel
Warning sirens shake Israel on the seventh day of the American attack on Iraq. The Israeli radar system warns of an attack by 15 missiles launched from Iraq. Twelve of the missiles are intercepted by Arrow missiles and three missiles bearing chemical warheads land in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Yavneh. There are casualties.
The government discusses its response to the firing of the missiles. The chief of staff reports that the Americans are planning to bomb Iraq with atomic weapons and have called upon the inhabitants of Baghdad to evacuate the city. A Channel One reporter bursts into the government meeting room and announces that a smart bomb has hit Saddam's bunker and killed him. Then the government also wakes up to action.
The chief of staff: "What do you think of eliminating Arafat on the background of the general upheaval?"
The defense minister supports the proposal.
The prime minister: "An IDF force has acted in response to the Palestinian provocations and aggression and has eliminated the leaders of the PA and Arafat."
|
|
|
Napoleon
If a real war played out the way the simulation did, and the Hashemites were killed and lost Jordan, then even if Arafat didn't want to take Jordan his people would take it without him. I don't see how he could restrain his people from leaving the west bank and heading towards Jordan. They would perceive it as a friendlier place to live then on the west bank.
Since they would have control of Jordan, but still be in hostilities with Israel, natural laws would dictate that, like water, the people will move along the path of least resistence. With heavy resitence on the west bank and none in Jordan, it wouldn't take very long before the west bank emptied itself of Palestinians.
That is NOT the way things happen in the Middle East - or anywhere else for that matter. Some people of ALL groups choose the path of least resistance. Many do not.
It was not the path of least resistance that lead Israelis to the settlements. Some Palestinians may indeed leave. But the task of much "cleansing" will remain to be done.
The true purpose of goy-boy-Bush?
I understand your point....and perhaps I'm missing something in the reading but, the logic, to me at least, doesn't sound kosher.
Follow me if you will.
Aside from military targets, the only other of strategic value is Bagdhad. Since, according to the wargaming, we are already involved in the conflict, and given your observation of keeping the Israelis out of the conflict, why would we need to resort to a nuclear strike.
The above scenario does not hint as to why we would up the ante. Let's suppose the price of appeasement to Israel (like the Patriot Missle in '91), is the destruction of Bagdhad. A Rolling Thunder style event could reduce Bagdhad to shreds in a matter of hours. As a matter of course, I would think that a combination of BLU's, Cave Buster, and Dumb multi thousand pounders would do a more effective job on deep bunkers than an air blast. The above ground result is more or less the same.
Part of the problem I'm having with this is, why the wargame scenario assumes the worst case option, if in fact, part of their reason is to send a message. Wouldn't the credibility of the message be enhanced by, let's say, a conventional strike and the ensuing Dresden firestorm. A description of damage of that sort, is more conveniently poignant to portray.
I think it was. Free/subsidized housing and little resistence at the time was a great incentive for families to move. How many are moving in today?
It's not the governments, its the citizenry. Virtually all the people of the arab states (including Egypt and Jordan)want to take on Israel and the rest of the West. The governments are actually providing a small hedge against this for the moment since they know the ramifications. They'll fail eventually, however, if and when Israel rightfully annexes land "officially" and/or take out Arafat.
The one body not mentioned in the wargame is the UN. Their "refugee camps" would still be extant and those who have lived in them without working for five generations would go on living and being supported there. The problem would persist.
Not sure what you mean there. I don't think Bush is on strings controlled by the Mossad.
Bush wants to end the regime in Baghdad for personal and political reasons. Remember, Saddam tried to put a hit on his dad. For that reason alone W would want to take him out. Plus, his funding of war machines, his megalomaniacal nature, his desire to build WMD, and his connections to the CIA are probably all more reasons to take him down.
I feel pretty sure all these scenarios have been covered by our generals already. The one that bears watching is Syria.
And if the dream is to destroy Israel, perhaps moving to Jordan to consolidate your energies and your forces might be a good strategic reason for you to go.
Remember how easily they fled during 1948.
Their scenario also does not take into account the reaction of Eygpt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the terrorist elements in Lebanon. Another battle group in the Med or a LA class sub or two there should be enough to make Eygpt stand down should it come to it. Saudi Arabia may not attack Israel directly, but radicals inside the country may attack our troops based there. If the House of Saud are found to be complict in the attacks, they'll go from selling oil to working at a 7-11 rather quickly IMHO. Syria can be kept in check with a build up at the Golan. Russia must lean heavily on Iran not to become involved.
Perhaps they remember '48 as a "retreat". Perhaps they intend to not "retreat" again.
It will take more than another Deir Yassin to cause them to "retreat".
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.