Posted on 05/31/2002 8:55:02 AM PDT by freeforall
I'm getting increasingly worried about the escalation of tension between India and Pakistan. Could we be on the verge of witnessing the world's first nuclear war? You've dealt with defense matters for many years. What would such a conflict look like in rough terms? —Shiverin' in Shreveport
It would look quite rough, indeed. I agree that nuclear war between India and Pakistan seems more likely every day. With the revelation Thursday that the White House is preparing to evacuate some 65,000 Americans from the area—a huge undertaking that we would attempt only in the most dire of circumstances—it appears that U.S. intelligence is far from sanguine about the situation. It's deteriorating fast. Reason is not prevailing. Despite European, U.S., and Russian efforts to get both sides to "cool it," the rhetoric is rising and the two are already engaged in intense conventional warfare. Artillery and mortar fire across the border is the heaviest in years. Between one and two thousand people have died in the last two weeks alone. At least two million troops are now facing off; more every week. Much commerce has been cut. Both nations have reportedly put their nuclear arsenals on a high state of readiness, dispersing warheads among commanders in order to assure themselves retaliatory capacity. Blustering and posturing are growing more shrill and irrational.
As to what it would look like if it happened… It would probably start with a dozen or more nuclear strikes by one side against the other in an attempt to preemptively deal a crippling blow. If the attacked nation survived with quite a few nukes intact, it would retaliate almost immediately. That would be followed by decreasing counter-retaliations and counter-counter-retaliations. If they exhausted their arsenals in the exchange, between 50 and 150 nuclear bombs could be detonated over scores of cities and other targets. The U.S. estimated last week that such a nuclear exchange would kill about 12 million people and injure another 8 million. This would not—scare stories to the contrary—be enough to wipe out the two nations or even completely destroy their economies. The damage would be horrendous, but both Pakistan and Indian would probably recover in a few years. As we learned from World War II and other conflicts since, major cities are surprisingly resilient.
As to who would win, well, because India's arsenal and population are much larger, let's put it this way: Pakistan would probably have the tougher time of it.
By the way, the U.S. would probably bear much of the cost, not only in lost trade, but also because the U.S. would be the country that would most likely have to clean up the radioactive aftermath. It could cost us billions, but it would not devastate our economy, although it could throw the world into another slowdown. Why us for the clean-up? Why is it ever us? We're the ones with the most technology and wealth—and good will. I'm told by sources that the U.S. has been quietly gearing up for this eventuality. Another bad sign that things may be spinning out of control over there.
What's the cause of the escalation? In TOA Daily's opinion, it's primarily due to the on-going terrorism—mainly by Pakistani-supported Muslim militants. They've been engaging in homicide bombings of Indian facilities for years and India has had enough. It wants an end to it, even if the price is high. It's demanded that Pakistan control its militants, but Pakistan either won't or can't. It could be that the militants have grown too strong and secretive, with too many resources, for Pakistan to control. The same thing happened with al-Qaeda, which Pakistan funded and helped build. Shows you that the pit of penalties for backing terrorism can be very deep. You could look at this situation—if it turns atomic—as the first nuclear exchange of the worldwide War on Terror. We thought we had it bad with the September 11, 2001 bombings. We did, but if Pakistan and India go at it with nukes, it's going to make 9/11 look like a firecracker in a mailbox.
Indian newspapers aren't very credible when reporting on Pakistan, and the reverse is at least as true.
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I'll bet you're right about this. India has become a popular tourist destination. Also, Indian-Americans visit families back home on a regular basis. Hopefully, their will at least be time to get everyone out using conventional means like regularly scheduled airlines and this won't require an emergency evacuation.
Also, anyone who actually looks forward to the incineration of millions is truly disturbed.
Oops, that remark wasn't aimed at you but at some others on this board.
That is very obvious.
While the British ruled India as the diamond in its Colonial Crown, the fighting between Muslims and Hindus ... was non-existent.
LOL. That is just totally untrue. You need to read up more.
Remember, when India first became an independent nation in (whenever) I am pretty sure it was as one nation (India and Pakistan as one). It was only afterwards that a split took place.
Again, untrue. The British split India into two pieces - India and Pakistan. The subsequent split that you may be thinking of, was a split within Pakistan.
India's Agni
"Finally, sticking with our defense theme, in something far more realistic than seamless dreams, India last Friday successfully tested its nuclear-tipped Agni ballistic missile off India's east coast at about 8:45 am local time. Agni, "Fire" in the Hindi language, is the name for India's 1250-mile-plus rocket designed to deter Pakistani and Chinese aggression. Given that both those nations have been busily stirring up mischief against the US on a planetary scale (much as the old Soviet Union did), funding some of the world's smarmiest organizations and thugocracies,India's Agni test is good news. India's help in deterring such troublemakers is something that the US should welcome. India not only provided us a lot of great intelligence early in the War on Terror, but it also is a blossoming capitalist democracy with a good sense of self-help when it comes to defense. It's not perfect (too much entrenched socialism), but it's making improvements. We could have worse allies in the region. And how many allies do we have capable of fielding ballistic nuclear missiles? You can count them on one hand. —EGR" Comments?
It will not be a war, but rather suicide. Both countries will throw all they got. Pakistan knows they will lose because India has got more nukes and bigger ones. And after the nukes, the Paks still have to fight off what's left of 1.2 billion Hindus storming their way.
Therefor Pakistan will never go for war, and India never would have in the first place. There is almost no gain but so much to loose.
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