Posted on 05/31/2002 8:55:02 AM PDT by freeforall
I'm getting increasingly worried about the escalation of tension between India and Pakistan. Could we be on the verge of witnessing the world's first nuclear war? You've dealt with defense matters for many years. What would such a conflict look like in rough terms? —Shiverin' in Shreveport
It would look quite rough, indeed. I agree that nuclear war between India and Pakistan seems more likely every day. With the revelation Thursday that the White House is preparing to evacuate some 65,000 Americans from the area—a huge undertaking that we would attempt only in the most dire of circumstances—it appears that U.S. intelligence is far from sanguine about the situation. It's deteriorating fast. Reason is not prevailing. Despite European, U.S., and Russian efforts to get both sides to "cool it," the rhetoric is rising and the two are already engaged in intense conventional warfare. Artillery and mortar fire across the border is the heaviest in years. Between one and two thousand people have died in the last two weeks alone. At least two million troops are now facing off; more every week. Much commerce has been cut. Both nations have reportedly put their nuclear arsenals on a high state of readiness, dispersing warheads among commanders in order to assure themselves retaliatory capacity. Blustering and posturing are growing more shrill and irrational.
As to what it would look like if it happened… It would probably start with a dozen or more nuclear strikes by one side against the other in an attempt to preemptively deal a crippling blow. If the attacked nation survived with quite a few nukes intact, it would retaliate almost immediately. That would be followed by decreasing counter-retaliations and counter-counter-retaliations. If they exhausted their arsenals in the exchange, between 50 and 150 nuclear bombs could be detonated over scores of cities and other targets. The U.S. estimated last week that such a nuclear exchange would kill about 12 million people and injure another 8 million. This would not—scare stories to the contrary—be enough to wipe out the two nations or even completely destroy their economies. The damage would be horrendous, but both Pakistan and Indian would probably recover in a few years. As we learned from World War II and other conflicts since, major cities are surprisingly resilient.
As to who would win, well, because India's arsenal and population are much larger, let's put it this way: Pakistan would probably have the tougher time of it.
By the way, the U.S. would probably bear much of the cost, not only in lost trade, but also because the U.S. would be the country that would most likely have to clean up the radioactive aftermath. It could cost us billions, but it would not devastate our economy, although it could throw the world into another slowdown. Why us for the clean-up? Why is it ever us? We're the ones with the most technology and wealth—and good will. I'm told by sources that the U.S. has been quietly gearing up for this eventuality. Another bad sign that things may be spinning out of control over there.
What's the cause of the escalation? In TOA Daily's opinion, it's primarily due to the on-going terrorism—mainly by Pakistani-supported Muslim militants. They've been engaging in homicide bombings of Indian facilities for years and India has had enough. It wants an end to it, even if the price is high. It's demanded that Pakistan control its militants, but Pakistan either won't or can't. It could be that the militants have grown too strong and secretive, with too many resources, for Pakistan to control. The same thing happened with al-Qaeda, which Pakistan funded and helped build. Shows you that the pit of penalties for backing terrorism can be very deep. You could look at this situation—if it turns atomic—as the first nuclear exchange of the worldwide War on Terror. We thought we had it bad with the September 11, 2001 bombings. We did, but if Pakistan and India go at it with nukes, it's going to make 9/11 look like a firecracker in a mailbox.
.....i agree.....
.....those folks over there are the biggist dolts in the universe.....
.....(live in deserts, follow hateful leaders, etc.).....
.....the only way for them to get ahead in this world.....
.....is to bring everybody else back to the stone ages with them.....
.....they gotta be democRATS.....
Thanks for the excellent post, My_Identity. It's well reasoned, I believe, but I'd be interested to find out how you rank the credibility of the sources you cited.
His Master plan is in place and will be fulfilled, however, if mankind/nations will turn back to Him and repent of their ways ( sincerely) the tribulations etc. could be held off " for a "season/time" . Yes, He does know what is in the heart of mankind and He does know who will pray, and pray sincerely, but it really is up to mankind to mend their ways.
Sometimes some awful things have to take place before we see His plan and the outcome of it. What sometimes appears to be a tragedy, in the end when looking back, it was actually a blessing. I do not claim to know the mind of God, no one does, only the Son, Jesus.
I can only relay to you what I have learned from studying scripture and also what I believe His Holy Spirit has revealed to me. At the time of Jesus crucifiction and suffering, that was a tragedy was it not ? The only Son of God the only perfect person with no sin had to suffer. Yes, that at the time was a tragedy. However, if He did not die for " our " sins and suffer that tragedy as He did, we would not have the gift of eternal life, if we believe in Him and accept him as our Saviour. That too was His Master plan for mankind.
His Master plan is in place and will be fulfilled, however, if mankind/nations will turn back to Him and repent of their ways ( sincerely) the tribulations etc. could be held off " for a "season/time" . Yes, He does know what is in the heart of mankind and He does know who will pray, and pray sincerely, but it really is up to mankind to mend their ways.
Sometimes some awful things have to take place before we see His plan and the outcome of it. What sometimes appears to be a tragedy, in the end when looking back, it was actually a blessing. I do not claim to know the mind of God, no one does, only the Son, Jesus.
I can only relay to you what I have learned from studying scripture and also what I believe His Holy Spirit has revealed to me. At the time of Jesus crucifiction and suffering, that was a tragedy was it not ? The only Son of God the only perfect person with no sin had to suffer. Yes, that at the time was a tragedy. However, if He did not die for " our " sins and suffer that tragedy as He did, we would not have the gift of eternal life, if we believe in Him and accept him as our Saviour. That too was His Master plan for mankind.
Good point!
Time for the Indian TV stations, and the Paki TV stations to show some footage of mushroom clouds, and post bomb Hiroshima.
Maybe that would give the people a sense of "Holy Sh!t, what are we in for"!
My guess is that the refugees will probably wind up in 1) The USA, 2) Canada, 3) The UK, 4) The rest of Europe.
Inevitable since Pakistan began building nukes. India had tested in the 70s and then discontinued the program. An arms buildup demands to be used eventually.
Oh, that's sick...millions upon millions of three-headed babies...and no, please don't start with the 'dead baby' jokes...
That would really do wonders for that whole "One Child" Policy.
Praying has had results of Divine Intervention ( God) to a people/nation that was repentant. Yes, we can hold off evil with sincere prayers. By reading the Bible you will find many instances of this. BTW, yes, praying should make us feel good, but that is not the main purpose of prayer, it is our only way to connect with God.
We are in a war, a spiritual war more than physical.
It is very unlikely that God has orchestrated some "master plan" to nuke a great portion of the earth (although there is hints of something to that effect in Revelation). God has endowed humanity with free will and does not simply override it on a whim. Our prayers really do move the heavenlies... and I agree with all that DreamWeaver has written. We are in a spiritual war on every front.
I don't know... Most of the people in the world would look at the smoldering remains of two nations and be oh-so-grateful that it didn't happen to *them*. Ten to twenty years worth of "news as entertainment" on the conflagration would pretty much be guaranteed, though. Hollywood, of course, will crank out a steady stream of movies about the nukewar. It'll be entertaining to see the inevitable: white males cast in both Indian and Pakistani roles...
Sometimes some awful things have to take place before we see His plan and the outcome of it. What sometimes appears to be a tragedy, in the end when looking back, it was actually a blessing. I do not claim to know the mind of God, no one does, only the Son, Jesus.
I can only relay to you what I have learned from studying scripture and also what I believe His Holy Spirit has revealed to me. At the time of Jesus crucifiction and suffering, that was a tragedy was it not ? The only Son of God the only perfect person with no sin had to suffer. Yes, that at the time was a tragedy. However, if He did not die for " our " sins and suffer that tragedy as He did, we would not have the gift of eternal life, if we believe in Him and accept him as our Saviour. That too was His Master plan for mankind.
So what I "hear" you "saying", correct me if I'm wrong, is that although God has His perfect plan, we can (as free moral agents) alter it (if not it's details, then at least it's timing). I actually agree with this view as it seems more palatable (right word?) to the totality of Scripture. It's kind of like one of the old "Choose Your Own Adventure" books. Although, you don't actually decide the "master plan", you do have significant freedom within that master plan... freedom to choose. I would love to converse with you more on this subject.
Well, if anyone spots Geraldo checking out the welding goggles at Sears, please post info here so we know when to start REALLY worrying!
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