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I'd be interested to find out how you rank the credibility of the sources you cited.

Accepting that this is all from public-sources, I would call it consistent, rather than inherently reliable.

The most disconcerting issue is the question of Paki control over their own nukes. There are multiple reports on loose management of Paki nukes. The sources quoted are not all considered higly reliablitiy, but some (U.S.) seem to be reasonably reliable. And they do paint a consistent picture. Does Musharraf have control? One hopes so, but given the level of sophistication in that part of the world, it is easy to imagine that fail-safe and C&C procedures are weak, especially with tactical nukes. I find it difficult to imagine that Pakistan has multiple, secure, nuclear-storage facilities, for example. The religious, political, and personal ambitions of the key Paki players makes it an interesting brew.

I think Musharraf is trying to clamp down on the jihadis, but he does't have complete cooperation. Hopefully he'll convince the ISI troops to cool it for 2 weeks. We'll see. Are there any wild-eyed fanatics beyond ISI control out there? Probably. If the jihadis, or even the Paki military, spin out of control, all bets are off.

One hopeful spin on events to date is that Mush is ratcheting up the rhetoric to cover for the crackdown on the jihadis. Mush is whipping the Pakis into a near-frenzy over the nuke option. Meanwhile, he is cracking down on the bad players. India eventually sees that LoC activities have dropped significantly, so they can pull back. Mush claims that India withdrew because they feared Paki nukes. Dangerous brinksmanship, but better than the alternative.

Finally, there is the hope of a deus ex machina scenario that isn't public knowledge. Does the US have assets on the ground or in the sky to help pinpoint the location of Paki nukes in real-time? One fervently hopes.

Freegards,

MI