Just Three Minutes From Nuclear Strike

Independent (UK) ^ | 5-24-2002 | Peter Popham

[milestogo]

From my perspective, if Pakistan withdrew and a vote were held, Kashmir would vote to be independent of India. But too much water has passed under the bridge since that time for such a vote to be held. India wouldn't consider the idea, and the Paks have no intention of withdrawing even if they did.

You forgot something. The Pakistanis gave away a third of Kashmir to China

[satire]

Okay. Let's say 40 + 60 nuclear bombs go off on the other side of the globe, for a total of 100. Can someone here tell us what the implications are, fallout-wise, for the various regions of the U.S.? And for the rest of the world?

[Dog Gone]

You forgot something. The Pakistanis gave away a third of Kashmir to China

I didn't know that the Pakistanis gave it to them. I thought China did it on their own, but nobody cared since the population was negligible.

I'm not sure it matters. The point I was trying to make is that it isn't possible to go back to 1947 and do it right this time. It's too late for that. The situation on the ground has changed.

[Cleburne]

Baluchis, Punjabis, Rajputs and Dogras

Cool names. I think I heard them in Star Wars.

[~Peter]

The situation, in my opinion, can't be resolved by the two parties alone. There is simply too much bad blood. It desperately needs ...

... Jessy Jackson.
Just where is he when we need him?

[mhking]

[Nogbad]

Okay. Let's say 40 + 60 nuclear bombs go off on the other side of the globe,
for a total of 100.
Can someone here tell us what the implications are,
fallout-wise, for the various regions of the U.S.?
And for the rest of the world?

Much less than from the single 50 megaton bomb
exploded by the USSR during the Cold War
and whose fallout went over China and Alaska.

[tet68]

Many of the troops confronting each other come from the same stock as each other, speak the same language and share the same culture, leaving aside the matter of religion. That is one of the bitter ironies of India's and Pakistan's endless wars.

And so Arjuna, now comes the time of your choosing.
Will you walk with Krishna on the field of battle?

[agrace]

Exactly how likely is it, do you think, that either country would actually use the nukes they have? How far would it have to escalate, how quickly could that happen, any speculation on circumstances?

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Maybe I'm out to lunch, but I honestly thought the balloon would have gone up by now. This has been building for a couple of weeks, and I anticipated that if it did go down badly it would start with a sudden explosion, not this long, long, long, slow buildup. That's just begging for other world powers to step in and defuse it.

I kind of wonder if something, probably even the U.S. with Britain and Russia (maybe China, who knows?), isn't already at work holding back the explosion.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I would thought the big bad would have already happened, if it was going to.

[keri]

There's quite a bit of history on the Kashmir that isn't spin from either side. When the British divided India, the Hindu prince who ruled the Kashmir opted for neither Pakistan nor India but independence. (IIRC the Brits had sold the Kashmir to the princes father)

Three weeks after the partition, Pakistan invaded the Kashmir and the prince realized he could not control kashmir. He chose to ascend to India over Pakistan. India accepted and granted special status to Kashmir, and appealed to the UN *for* a referendum when Pakistan withdrew. It never did...there are now at least half a million true Kashmiris living in India in slums, that cannot return to their homes. Of course if there was a vote today, Kashmir would probably vote for "independence", and become another Afghanistan tomorrow...

The reason India must hang on the Kashmir ought to be obvious. There are currently seventeen different separatist movements in India. If the proxy war succeeds in the Kashmir and it falls to Pakistan, India will probably not survive as a nation. If India doesn't survive, well, you're a smart guy and can figure out where that leaves us.

[jrewingjr]

If India doesn't survive

At some point in the not too distant future I think India will splinter and descend into chaos. Possibly as a result of a full Pakistani nuke strike. China will roll through like a Red tide, murder millions and millions, then put the rest to work as slaves. They will treat the Indians the way the Japanese treated the Chinese in Nanking.

The kings of the east heading westward ...

[mhking]

And the Romulan Empire continues to roll westward across the globe...

[Wolfie]

As a software professional, let me just say it would be a crying shame if India were nuked off the map.

[Caipirabob]

Can someone here tell us what the implications are, fallout-wise, for the various regions of the U.S.?

Plan your vacation sooner than later. Don't worry about charging it. Take advantage of "Buy Now, Pay Later" deals. Buy your wife something nice. Celebrate Christmas/Chaunnaka/Kwanza/Whaddeva in July. Enjoy second helpings and stop worrying about cancer if you smoke.

/ friendly sarcasm

[Dog Gone]

The reason India must hang on the Kashmir ought to be obvious. There are currently seventeen different separatist movements in India. If the proxy war succeeds in the Kashmir and it falls to Pakistan, India will probably not survive as a nation.

That's a good point. Sort of the old Domino Theory, except it's within a country.

It's not at all clear to me that the residents of Kashmir would have a better life if they were independent of India or part of Pakistan. I'm sure there are documented cases of "Indian oppression" that they could point to, but life under Pakistani control is nothing to long for. If anything, democracy is far more established in India than in Pakistan and, Gujarat aside, muslims have enjoyed the benefits of living in India over the years. It's not as if the residents of Kashmir are actually "longing to be free" of some brutal dictatorship.

Well, very little of the conflict between these two neighboring countries makes much rational sense to me. I understand the historical bad blood between them and the religious differences, but they both claim they want to be tolerant democracies. If they actually meant that, there wouldn't be any reason to fight each other or to have mobs rioting internally.

[oyez]

Fallout? Not as devestating as the refugees that the liberals will bring to this country. Think about it.

[far sider]

Basically Kashmir is Moslem. The Moslems in Kashmir and in Pakistan don't like the idea of Moslems being ruled by Hindus (India). That's why whether Kashmir is independent or part of Pakistan doesn't matter that much to the Moslems. Also Kasmir has a lot of natural resources which both countries want.

[CaptRon]

Actually, my Pakistani and Indian friends tell me that the two populations as a whole really don't hate each other all that much.

That's much different from my experience. I have several Indian's working for me and on the morning of 9/11 each of them at some time came into my office declaring "It's the Pakis!" The dislike was palpable.

[the_doc]

I'm glad I don't have people like that working for me.

Anyway, thanks for the perspective.