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The GOP's Immigration Dilemma
The Hill ^ | 5/15/2002 | Dick Morris

Posted on 05/16/2002 12:24:37 PM PDT by hchutch

For its political survival, the Republican Party must court the Hispanic vote. Totally shut out among black voters and badly defeated among Hispanics, the GOP is having a hard time finding enough white voters to overcome the deficit. With blacks and Hispanics casting one vote in four, a Republican must win two-thirds of the white vote to have a shot at 51 percent in the average election.

And the situation will only get worse for the Republican Party. The Hispanic population, which swelled from 7 percent to 12 percent of the U.S. population in the past 10 years, is forecast to grow to 18 percent by the end of the decade. If they continue to vote Democrat, the GOP will run out of white people — and face death as a political party.

Only by taking the bold and dramatic step of providing amnesty to illegal Mexican immigrants can the GOP, at a stroke, become competitive among Hispanic voters. This legislation, the equivalent for Hispanics of the 1964 Civil Rights Act for blacks, holds the potential to reposition an entire slice of the electorate and move Hispanics to the Republican Party.

But, at the same time, the Republican Party needs to hang on to its base of angry white men who largely oppose immigration — and illegal immigration most of all. They are the base that insisted on English-only initiatives in the 1980s and 1990s, battled to cutoff aid to illegal aliens, and demanded a halt to bilingual education.

How are Republicans to reach out to Hispanics while appeasing their truculent base?

President Bush has already taken the lead in pulling the Republican Party back from the issue precipices on which it was dancing. By stopping Republicans from opposing bilingual education or affirmative action, and by demoting English-only initiatives to the bottom of the party’s agenda, he has moved mightily to strengthen GOP outreach to Hispanics.

But it is his amnesty proposal for illegal Mexican immigrants that holds the real hope for his party to avert demographic extinction.

The key to resolving the Republican dilemma of having to choose between outreach to Hispanics and alienating its Anglo political base is to condition amnesty with good citizenship requirements.

Republicans should offer conditional amnesty to Mexican illegal immigrants. Here’s the deal: If you want to stay in the United States, you must enroll in a good-citizen program. The immigrant has to agree to become functionally literate in English within two years, work for six of the next eight quarters and pay taxes to FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) for each of these quarters — no off-the-books work — and avoid arrest for 24 months.

At the end of the two-year period, those who meet the requirements would become citizens in good standing, eligible to vote and participate in civic life. Those who refuse to enroll or who fail the meet the requirements would face deportation. If the program works, it can be expanded to other categories of illegal immigrants.

Polling shows that most voters, even among the GOP base, are willing to forgive the illegality of their arrival if these Mexican immigrants show a willingness to earn their legal status in America. The compromise has the contractual opportunity/responsibility formula that sold so many of Clinton’s programs and that lies at the core of the highly successful welfare reform program. By asking something in return for giving something, the resulting transaction acquires a moral impetus that it sorely needs to win national support.

At the same time as the Republicans offer the olive branch to illegal Hispanic immigrants, they must use this year’s review of immigration statutes to close down immigration from nations that sponsor or harbor terrorists — including even such so-called allies as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. By closing one spigot as they open the other, Republicans can master the political hat trick of reaching out to Hispanics while appeasing their political base.

Otherwise, the GOP will go the way of the Liberal Party in Great Britain, to the political grave.


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: donutwatch; gop; immigrantlist; immigration
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Say what you will about Dick Morris, the man knows his stuff. Quite frankly, I find it hards to disagree with this.

We've got a choice. We can go the Buchanan-Wilson route and lose everything else, or we can cut a halfway decent deal, and win on a lot more important things down the road (Supreme Court nominations are a biggie, as are national defense, tax cuts, and a number of other issues).

If Morris is correct, then we need to make a call. Quite frankly, the political graveyard is not an option, and we need to cut the best deal on something like 245(i) possible, and push it through, or we lose on everything down the road.

1 posted on 05/16/2002 12:24:37 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: Miss Marple; Poohbah; Howlin; JohnHuang2; Congressman Billybob; holdonnow; Grampa Dave
FYI.
2 posted on 05/16/2002 12:25:32 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: hchutch
Notice that the Democrats stopped 245(i)? If THEY opposed it, it was because they understood Bush's game.

BTW, Pete Wilson didn't give a rat's keister about illegal immigration as mayor of San Diego, US Senator, or during most of his first term as governor of California. He only became a born-again nativist when he saw Prop 187 as a hot-button issue.

And 187 doomed the GOP in California, because the Hispanics who had NOT cared a whit about politics suddenly got convinced that the next step was GOP sponsorship of the KKK (much of the Prop 187 advertising I saw looked like Tom Metzger and David Duke were the campaign architects).

3 posted on 05/16/2002 12:29:56 PM PDT by Poohbah
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To: hchutch
So why the h--- should this white angry male complain. He hasn't had a government or president in the last 10 years that gave a hoot. All the women ganged up against him and joined with the Homo's, Lezzies, and every other minority known to man. It's over folks! You don't even have a decent republican that cares about your vote. Wake up America.
4 posted on 05/16/2002 12:32:03 PM PDT by chachacha
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To: Poohbah
No kidding. That ham-handed effort, plus Demonrat lies, screwed us over for a decade there. We need to get a good setup proposed.

Set tough terms, but provide a means to make `em legit. We'll make out like bandits. Besides, the Hispanic community is growing much faster than the black vote anyhow.

5 posted on 05/16/2002 12:33:17 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: hchutch
Well, we certainly need more than just the honkey vote at some point. :)

The reality, though, is that illegals would be whipped into a frenzy by leftist demagogues at being required to become "good citizens." The policy would be condemned as "racist" and "insensitive to their cultural heritage." Republicans would also be attacked for forcing illegals to work and learn English. Though the plan might work, I wonder whether Republicans could overcome the liberal spin machine with such a proposal.

6 posted on 05/16/2002 12:33:50 PM PDT by Zack Nguyen
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To: hchutch
Republicans should offer conditional amnesty to Mexican illegal immigrants.

From: GWB

To: Would be immigrants from around the world who have been obeying the law and waiting their turn

Sorry, you folks have been going about it the wrong way.
If you'd been sneaking in here illegally and fraudulently voting for my opponent, I could help you out, but as it is, there's not a thing I can do.

7 posted on 05/16/2002 12:35:12 PM PDT by Charlotte Corday
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To: chachacha
I hate to agree with you, but I must.
8 posted on 05/16/2002 12:35:28 PM PDT by umgud
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To: Marine Inspector
bttt
9 posted on 05/16/2002 12:41:13 PM PDT by Marine Inspector
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To: chachacha
As long as women are in the majority, we will always have affirmative action and the "sensitivity police."
10 posted on 05/16/2002 12:42:15 PM PDT by Clemenza
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To: Zack Nguyen
If we use the bully pulpit, we can do it. The hard part is dealing with the Tancredo-Buchanan types out there who don't understand the political realities here. We can get a good deal now, or be stuck with a bad one.

The set-up Morris has is a good one, and it will work out. None of these are things that can easily be spun as racist, and certainly, any effort to oppose such conditions could be spun by us as racist - the Dems are setting them up to fail.

The fact that Senator KKK (Robert Byrd) is the point man on this makes it that much easier, IMHO.

11 posted on 05/16/2002 12:42:25 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: Charlotte Corday
Would you care to address the points that Mr. Morris made in this column, or are you just going to sit on the sidelines and throw rocks?
12 posted on 05/16/2002 12:43:29 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: Poohbah
I agree with you on Pete Wilson. He was a big spending RINO who became the darling of the single-issue crowd overnight, much as the socially liberal Pim Fortuyn became the w-t dream of the immigration obsessives here.

Morris is right that GOPers should court Hispanics, but amnesty is NOT the way to go.

13 posted on 05/16/2002 12:44:29 PM PDT by Clemenza
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Comment #14 Removed by Moderator

To: superdestroyer
Yeah, but when will that happen?

I don't see how this can hurt us any. Hispanics are pretty strong on a number of issues for us, and Bush has done well in reaching out to `em. We could seal a pretty decent portion with the plan Morris outlined, especially if we use the bully pulpit to sell it.

15 posted on 05/16/2002 12:47:17 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: hchutch
Republicans should offer conditional amnesty to Mexican illegal immigrants. Here’s the deal: If you want to stay in the United States, you must enroll in a good-citizen program. The immigrant has to agree to become functionally literate in English within two years, work for six of the next eight quarters and pay taxes to FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) for each of these quarters — no off-the-books work — and avoid arrest for 24 months.

At the end of the two-year period, those who meet the requirements would become citizens in good standing, eligible to vote and participate in civic life. Those who refuse to enroll or who fail the meet the requirements would face deportation. If the program works, it can be expanded to other categories of illegal immigrants.

Not citizens. Legal permanent residents, maybe.

Citizenship requires five years in this nation and passing a test. There's no reason to change that.

-Eric

16 posted on 05/16/2002 12:48:42 PM PDT by E Rocc
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To: hchutch
Here’s the deal: If you want to stay in the United States, you must enroll in a good-citizen program. The immigrant has to agree to become functionally literate in English within two years, work for six of the next eight quarters and pay taxes to FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) for each of these quarters — no off-the-books work — and avoid arrest for 24 months.

On paper this sounds good, but who will ensure these illegals learn English? Who determines what is "proficient"? We can't even decide on testing requirements for our school children. Who is going to pay for all this testing? Will the Gov't now have to hire additional people to test them?

How will we track the illegals while they are here working? The INS can't keep track of people now. What happens if the drop out of the system? Who will pay for the tracking of their taxes, arrest records....? Currently when illegals are stopped or arrested, the local law enforcement agencies do not coordinate w/ the INS to deport them, why should we think this will change?

Who is going to pay for illegals to learn English? You can bet it will be the taxpayer. Currently illegals want to sue the Gov't for not providing water stations in the desert. Do you think they won't want us to pay for English lessons too?

17 posted on 05/16/2002 12:49:51 PM PDT by gubamyster
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To: Zack Nguyen
Republicans would also be attacked for forcing illegals to work and learn English.
Probably.

But they can turn that against the Damnocrats with older and middle class black voters, who are expected to work and don't think they've been given any such special favors.

-Eric

18 posted on 05/16/2002 12:51:04 PM PDT by E Rocc
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To: hchutch
I think that putting a lid on any further illegal immigration is a policy that can win elections in this country. Big time. I doubt if more than ten percent of the voters are in favor of illegal immigration.

Every time there is an amnesty, its authors swear that this is absolutely, positively the last one. Yeah, right.

And when I see an amnesty plan come out of the White House that has similar features to what Morris suggests - rather than being just another giveaway - then I'll feel the time has come for constructive engagement rather than sniping.

19 posted on 05/16/2002 12:51:28 PM PDT by Charlotte Corday
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To: gubamyster
We may have to fund the English classes, but again, it's a small price to pay. It's worth it for the long-term gains, both politically and as a matter of principle.

Right now, a lot of those people don't have a chance to succeed. If we can set things up right, they will have that chance to do so, and that will benefit us in th elong run. IMHO, it's also in our national interest to make sure people are functionally literate in English when they come into this country.

20 posted on 05/16/2002 12:54:22 PM PDT by hchutch
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