Posted on 04/27/2002 5:25:11 PM PDT by Pokey78
THE leading Israeli historian Martin van Creveld predicts that a US attack on Iraq or a terrorist strike at home could trigger a massive mobilisation to clear the occupied territories of their two million Arabs
Two years ago, less than eight per cent of those who took part in a Gallup poll among Jewish Israelis said they were in favour of what is euphemistically called "transfer" - that is, the expulsion of perhaps two million Palestinians across the River Jordan. This month that figure reached 44 per cent.
Earlier this year, when a journalist asked Ariel Sharon whether he favoured such a move, the Israeli prime minister said he did not think in such terms. A glance at his memoirs, however, shows that he has not always been so fastidious.
In September 1970 King Hussein of Jordan fell on the Palestinians in his kingdom, killing perhaps 5,000 to 10,000. The then Gen Sharon, serving as Commanding Officer, Southern Front, argued that Israel's policy of helping the king was a mistake; instead it should have tried to topple the Hashemite regime.
He has often said since that Jordan, which, according to him, has a Palestinian majority even now, is the Palestinian state. The inference - that the Palestinians should go there - is clear.
During its 1948 War of Independence, Israel drove 650,000 Palestinians from their homes into neighbouring countries. If it were to try something similar today, the outcome could well be a regional war. More and more people in Jerusalem believe that such is Mr Sharon's objective.
It might explain why Mr Sharon, famous for his ability to plan ahead, appears not to have a plan. In fact, he has always harboured a very clear plan - nothing less than to rid Israel of the Palestinians.
Few people, least of all me, want the following events to happen. But such a scenario could easily come about. Mr Sharon would have to wait for a suitable opportunity - such as an American offensive against Iraq, which some Israelis think is going to take place in early summer.
Mr Sharon himself told Colin Powell, the secretary of state, that America should not allow the situation in Israel to delay the operation.
An uprising in Jordan, followed by the collapse of King Abdullah's regime, would also present such an opportunity - as would a spectacular act of terrorism inside Israel that killed hundreds.
Should such circumstances arise, then Israel would mobilise with lightning speed - even now, much of its male population is on standby.
First, the country's three ultra-modern submarines would take up firing positions out at sea. Borders would be closed, a news blackout imposed, and all foreign journalists rounded up and confined to a hotel as guests of the Government.
A force of 12 divisions, 11 of them armoured, plus various territorial units suitable for occupation duties, would be deployed: five against Egypt, three against Syria, and one opposite Lebanon. This would leave three to face east as well as enough forces to put a tank inside every Arab-Israeli village just in case their populations get any funny ideas.
The expulsion of the Palestinians would require only a few brigades. They would not drag people out of their houses but use heavy artillery to drive them out; the damage caused to Jenin would look like a pinprick in comparison.
Any outside intervention would be held off by the Israeli air force. In 1982, the last time it engaged in large-scale operations, it destroyed 19 Syrian anti-aircraft batteries and shot down 100 Syrian aircraft against the loss of one.
Its advantage is much greater now than it was then and would present an awesome threat to any Syrian armoured attack on the Golan Heights.
As for the Egyptians, they are separated from Israel by 150 miles or so of open desert. Judging by what happened in 1967, should they try to cross it they would be destroyed.
The Jordanian and Lebanese armed forces are too small to count and Iraq is in no position to intervene, given that it has not recovered its pre-1991 strength and is being held down by the Americans. Saddam Hussein may launch some of the 30 to 40 missiles he probably has.
The damage they can do, however, is limited. Should Saddam be mad enough to resort to weapons of mass destruction, then Israel's response would be so "awesome and terrible" (as Yitzhak Shamir, the former prime minister, once said) as to defy the imagination.
Some believe that the international community will not permit such an ethnic cleansing. I would not count on it. If Mr Sharon decides to go ahead, the only country that can stop him is the United States.
The US, however, regards itself as being at war with parts of the Muslim world that have supported Osama bin Laden. America will not necessarily object to that world being taught a lesson - particularly if it could be as swift and brutal as the 1967 campaign; and also particularly if it does not disrupt the flow of oil for too long.
Israeli military experts estimate that such a war could be over in just eight days. If the Arab states do not intervene, it will end with the Palestinians expelled and Jordan in ruins.
If they do intervene, the result will be the same, with the main Arab armies destroyed. Israel would, of course, take some casualties, especially in the north, where its population would come under fire from Hizbollah.
However, their number would be limited and Israel would stand triumphant, as it did in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. Are you listening Mr Arafat?
And suspected by whom? You?
I won't dispute that. Israel is prepared to permit a limited autonomy to the West Bank Palestinians. But, right or wrong, they still expect to be able to buy, and develop, land there. And they expect those Israelis settled there to be allowed to commute to and from their jobs, and to live in peace.
That isn't the question. The question is whether or not the Pals are willing to live alongside them in peace. If the answer is yes, fine. Something can be worked out. If not, they will eventually be expelled. If not by Sharon, then by one of his successors. That is their decision to make and the answer to that is their destiny.
Somthing to ponder.....
In the Six-Day War, Israel captured Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem. But they didn't capture these territories from Yasser Arafat. They captured them from Jordan's King Hussein. I can't help but wonder why all these Palestinians suddenly discovered their national identity after Israel won the war.
The truth is that Palestine is no more real than Never-Never Land. The first time the name was used was in 70 A.D. when the Romans committed genocide against the Jews, smashed the Temple and declared the land of Israel would be no more. From then on, the Romans promised, it would be known as Palestine. The name was derived from the Philistines, a Goliathian people conquered by the Jews centuries earlier. It was a way for the Romans to add insult to injury. They also tried to change the name of Jerusalem to Aelia Capitolina, but that had even less staying power.
Palestine has never existed -- before or since -- as an autonomous entity. It was ruled alternately by Rome, by Islamic and Christian crusaders, by the Ottoman Empire and, briefly, by the British after World War I. The British agreed to restore at least part of the land to the Jewish people as their homeland.
Pali's are arabs! They are not distinguishable from Jordanians or Syrians or Iraquis. Why do you think none of the other so called "arab brothers" want them?
America would be a far better, morally advanced, and safer place if our Government would insist on America's welfare first over Israel's as these goals are clearly, no matter what the Jewish controlled media says, mutually exclusive.
There is absolutely no sane imperative or advantage in helping Israel endanger the world, or ignite WWIII, or to continue the subjugation of the Arabs through land aquisition that does not belong to them.
Hate and mutual attrocities commited by both sides are the fruit of this insane Jewish strategy.
The Arab world has been a friend of America long before "The Corpulent one" of Israel poisoned the well and before non-semitic Jews invaded and hi-jacked the Holy Land to initiate the problem.
Well, if he has studied the history of Israel he knows about the movement of that number of people. If he has studied the movement of refugees after WWII and during the partition of India, he knows about the movement of up to 100 million people.
As for how likely it is to happen, I don't own a crystal ball, nor can I read Sharon's mind.
As for the result, it would also mean the end of the 'Palestinian state', and the end of any state which intervened against Israel. Frankly, if it occurs while we are making war against Iraq, the world will hardly notice it.
I am so glad you brought that up. India was a definite region before conquered by the British. Pakistanis are ethnically Indian. So, the Muslims were given a homeland. And it isn't good enough! They're fighting over Kashmir. They will never be satisfied. Even if it's a postage stamp of land. If it's "Islamic" land, they will fight to the death for it. There is no amount of west bank land that will satisfy the Palestinians but they will be completely satisfied if there is no Israel but they are under the despotic rule of an "Islamic" dictator.
What are we going to do about it? Stamp our feet? All of our available troops will be involved in Iraq. During the 8 days it would take Israel to finish the job, no non-military intervention could have an effect.
Do you seriously suggest that the US would exterminate the Jewish state with nuclear weapons? After the Palestinian state no longer exists, people will cry crocodile tears, but will not risk anything for a people who are no longer in existence.
The Jews did not destroy the World Trade Center, Osama. It was you and your Arab buddies who did that.
My argument is more pointed toward why, if the Arabs control 99.9 percent of the Middle East lands, and Israel represents one-tenth of 1 percent of the landmass, do the arabs refuse to accept the Pali's?
The Arabs want it all. And that is ultimately what the fighting in Israel is about today. Greed. Pride. Envy. Covetousness. No matter how many land concessions the Israelis make, it will never be enough.
Did you know that it was Arafat's uncle who served as the grand mufti of Jerusalem in the 1920s and 1930s. It was his uncle who concluded, for the first time, that Mohammed had ascended into heaven from the site known as the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount. And it was his uncle who, in an unholy alliance with Adolf Hitler, condemned the Jews and their designs on their eternal capital city.
So what's the solution to the Middle East mayhem? Well, frankly, I don't think there is a man-made solution to the violence. But, if there is one, it needs to begin with truth. Pretending will only lead to more chaos. Treating a 5,000-year-old birthright backed by overwhelming historical and archaeological evidence equally with illegitimate claims, wishes and wants gives diplomacy and peacekeeping a bad name. (J.F.)
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