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Sharon's plan is to drive Palestinians across the Jordan
The Sunday Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | 04/28/2002

Posted on 04/27/2002 5:25:11 PM PDT by Pokey78

THE leading Israeli historian Martin van Creveld predicts that a US attack on Iraq or a terrorist strike at home could trigger a massive mobilisation to clear the occupied territories of their two million Arabs

Two years ago, less than eight per cent of those who took part in a Gallup poll among Jewish Israelis said they were in favour of what is euphemistically called "transfer" - that is, the expulsion of perhaps two million Palestinians across the River Jordan. This month that figure reached 44 per cent.

Earlier this year, when a journalist asked Ariel Sharon whether he favoured such a move, the Israeli prime minister said he did not think in such terms. A glance at his memoirs, however, shows that he has not always been so fastidious.

In September 1970 King Hussein of Jordan fell on the Palestinians in his kingdom, killing perhaps 5,000 to 10,000. The then Gen Sharon, serving as Commanding Officer, Southern Front, argued that Israel's policy of helping the king was a mistake; instead it should have tried to topple the Hashemite regime.

He has often said since that Jordan, which, according to him, has a Palestinian majority even now, is the Palestinian state. The inference - that the Palestinians should go there - is clear.

During its 1948 War of Independence, Israel drove 650,000 Palestinians from their homes into neighbouring countries. If it were to try something similar today, the outcome could well be a regional war. More and more people in Jerusalem believe that such is Mr Sharon's objective.

It might explain why Mr Sharon, famous for his ability to plan ahead, appears not to have a plan. In fact, he has always harboured a very clear plan - nothing less than to rid Israel of the Palestinians.

Few people, least of all me, want the following events to happen. But such a scenario could easily come about. Mr Sharon would have to wait for a suitable opportunity - such as an American offensive against Iraq, which some Israelis think is going to take place in early summer.

Mr Sharon himself told Colin Powell, the secretary of state, that America should not allow the situation in Israel to delay the operation.

An uprising in Jordan, followed by the collapse of King Abdullah's regime, would also present such an opportunity - as would a spectacular act of terrorism inside Israel that killed hundreds.

Should such circumstances arise, then Israel would mobilise with lightning speed - even now, much of its male population is on standby.

First, the country's three ultra-modern submarines would take up firing positions out at sea. Borders would be closed, a news blackout imposed, and all foreign journalists rounded up and confined to a hotel as guests of the Government.

A force of 12 divisions, 11 of them armoured, plus various territorial units suitable for occupation duties, would be deployed: five against Egypt, three against Syria, and one opposite Lebanon. This would leave three to face east as well as enough forces to put a tank inside every Arab-Israeli village just in case their populations get any funny ideas.

The expulsion of the Palestinians would require only a few brigades. They would not drag people out of their houses but use heavy artillery to drive them out; the damage caused to Jenin would look like a pinprick in comparison.

Any outside intervention would be held off by the Israeli air force. In 1982, the last time it engaged in large-scale operations, it destroyed 19 Syrian anti-aircraft batteries and shot down 100 Syrian aircraft against the loss of one.

Its advantage is much greater now than it was then and would present an awesome threat to any Syrian armoured attack on the Golan Heights.

As for the Egyptians, they are separated from Israel by 150 miles or so of open desert. Judging by what happened in 1967, should they try to cross it they would be destroyed.

The Jordanian and Lebanese armed forces are too small to count and Iraq is in no position to intervene, given that it has not recovered its pre-1991 strength and is being held down by the Americans. Saddam Hussein may launch some of the 30 to 40 missiles he probably has.

The damage they can do, however, is limited. Should Saddam be mad enough to resort to weapons of mass destruction, then Israel's response would be so "awesome and terrible" (as Yitzhak Shamir, the former prime minister, once said) as to defy the imagination.

Some believe that the international community will not permit such an ethnic cleansing. I would not count on it. If Mr Sharon decides to go ahead, the only country that can stop him is the United States.

The US, however, regards itself as being at war with parts of the Muslim world that have supported Osama bin Laden. America will not necessarily object to that world being taught a lesson - particularly if it could be as swift and brutal as the 1967 campaign; and also particularly if it does not disrupt the flow of oil for too long.

Israeli military experts estimate that such a war could be over in just eight days. If the Arab states do not intervene, it will end with the Palestinians expelled and Jordan in ruins.

If they do intervene, the result will be the same, with the main Arab armies destroyed. Israel would, of course, take some casualties, especially in the north, where its population would come under fire from Hizbollah.

However, their number would be limited and Israel would stand triumphant, as it did in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. Are you listening Mr Arafat?



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; News/Current Events
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1 posted on 04/27/2002 5:25:11 PM PDT by Pokey78
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To: Pokey78
This is a walter mitty fantasy indulgence by the professor. He has no idea what the movement of 2 million people entails. It simply is very unlikely to happen. If it does happen, it might be the beginning of the end of the Israeli state.
2 posted on 04/27/2002 5:30:29 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Pokey78
Interesting article. I don't know if I believe this is Sharon's plan or not. What I do know is when we hit Iraq/Iran the Israeli's will strke hard into the Bakaa Valley/Syria/Damascus etc. in a concerted move. Regional war? Absolutely! World War? Maybe. This is the plan IMHO. They are taking care of their internal enemy at the moment and will strike out when we attack. The Israeli's on one end of the Mideast and the US on the other. A perfect pincer movement.
3 posted on 04/27/2002 5:35:44 PM PDT by Davea
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To: Davea
The one thing the US will do is to make sure that Israel is not attacking when the US is attacking. That would make the US mission more difficult, and put US lives at risk. The US won't stand for it. It is all a fantasy by a guy that doesn't know what he is talking about, IMO.
4 posted on 04/27/2002 5:37:49 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Pokey78
First of all, I don't think Sharon has this in mind. Second of all, Jordan has had fairly decent relations with Israel so I doubt Israel would "reward" it with a kick in the teeth.

There is NO doubt about what he says would happen should they be stupid enough to attack Israel. If that happens all bets are off.

5 posted on 04/27/2002 5:38:55 PM PDT by McGavin999
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To: Torie
"..He has no idea what the movement of 2 million people entails.."

It's not so hard when they are properly motivated.....


6 posted on 04/27/2002 5:40:16 PM PDT by Icthus
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To: Torie
"It is all a fantasy by a guy that doesn't know what he is talking about, IMO.

Well, we'll see soon enough.

7 posted on 04/27/2002 5:44:18 PM PDT by Davea
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To: Pokey78
shot down 100 Syrian aircraft

Ouch! At 10-30 million dollars a pop, that's billions of dollars worth of airplanes going poof.

8 posted on 04/27/2002 5:53:18 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Icthus
FUNNY!
9 posted on 04/27/2002 5:56:05 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: AmericaUnited
nothing less than to rid Israel of the Palestinians.

I cant see a downside to this. After ridding Israel of the Palestinians,lets rid the US of the Arabs and Muslims here.

10 posted on 04/27/2002 5:57:55 PM PDT by cardinal4
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To: Torie
The part that is absolutely correct without any doubt is that Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon's armies would be utterly destroyed within days.

We would be effectively either neuter or completely castrate Saddam, his choice

11 posted on 04/27/2002 5:59:38 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: cardinal4
Let's Roll!
12 posted on 04/27/2002 6:00:09 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: cardinal4
"..After ridding Israel of the Palestinians,lets rid the US of the Arabs and Muslims here.."

It will help the economy....job openings for doctors, taxi drivers and convenience store clerks. ;o)

13 posted on 04/27/2002 6:06:38 PM PDT by Icthus
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To: Icthus
It's not so hard when they are properly motivated.....

Do you take some glee in a photo of a (presumably) Israeli tank chasing down some palestinian kids? And you'd like to see this done to the whole palestinian population? Things really are topsy turvey - and the lessons learned from the sufferings of the Jews are forgotten - when there are supporters of the Jewish state such as yourself who apparently would favor a Final Solution for nonJews in the vicinity. As for me, I believe in NEVER AGAIN - and I apply that principle to the persecution of ANY people, not just the children of Abraham.

14 posted on 04/27/2002 6:06:39 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: Pokey78
shot down 100 Syrian aircraft against the loss of one.

if memory serves, they did it in about an hour or so...

15 posted on 04/27/2002 6:11:02 PM PDT by marron
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To: Icthus
Your post is absolute trash.
16 posted on 04/27/2002 6:12:43 PM PDT by wewereright
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To: churchillbuff
"..such as yourself who apparently would favor a Final Solution for nonJews in the vicinity.."

Easy there chief....I have yet to post my views on the subject. Just because I provide a visual to someone else's comment does not mean I condone the eradication of ANY race of people.

If you were offended by the photo.....then I apologize to you. But please do not assume something based upon a such a trivial and humorous based post.

17 posted on 04/27/2002 6:13:46 PM PDT by Icthus
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To: Torie
If it does happen, it might be the beginning of the end of the Israeli state

Actually it's a perfectly rational move and the only way the Israelis are likely to survive in the long run.
18 posted on 04/27/2002 6:15:30 PM PDT by Kozak
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To: cardinal4
.....lets rid the US of the Arabs and Muslims here.

Nice...Why not rid the country of Jews? It would make for a safer U.S,

19 posted on 04/27/2002 6:15:54 PM PDT by rmvh
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To: Pokey78; all
He'd better get started. An Israeli spokesman on Whorealdo's show just announced the terrorists have entered a Jerusalem hospital and shot up people there.
20 posted on 04/27/2002 6:16:31 PM PDT by Lion's Cub
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