Japan Braces for a 'Designed in China' World

China's GDP is expected to grow by 7% a year for the next 2 decades at least, while America's will grow by about 2%.

And Arthur Andersen audited China's figures, so they've GOTTA be good to go...

China's figures have been under fire for quite a while now. You might be interested in this:
China seeks IMF shelter as statistics under fire
How Much Is China Cooking Its Numbers?
China's false statistics will kill it
China admits to trouble with state-run industries
China's GDP growth still slowing

I wouldn't trust the ChiCom numbers. These are just a couple of the articles on the matter (other articles can be found on the ChiCom Watch website).
This another good article posted recently:
China's private dilemma
Finally, you may also want to take a look at who is really putting a bunch of money into Cisco:
China's Golden Shield: Corporations and the Development of Surveillance Technology in China

I would like to know their revenue specifics, ie how much money came from the PRC and SOEs. How much has come from actual local private firms (not including foreign firms operating joint enterprises and the like)? Lets face it, the majority of Chinese are not fairing well - just look at the protests in NE China.
Then again, like DoughtyOne said, when you're paying people pennies an hour (or using laogai labour) it doesn't require very many sales to make a fair profit.

I bought a little clock at Sharper Image about two years ago. It was a nice looking cheap little clock. Got home and the thing was made in China. Okay, suck it up and get over it. So I took it out of the box and it worked for about ten minutes. (not exagerating) So I took it back. After checking out about five new clocks, I opted for a refund. None of the clocks worked. You can't tell me the vendor didn't know this before I got there. They just bank on people throwing their loot around an not coming back. Quality is word "NONE" when it comes to China merchandise. IMO

I'd be willing to bet venture capital was provide mostly by US firms wishing to do business in China.

Speaking of math… I have a little bit myself… Now lets assume those GDP #s are correct... and those predictions come true...just for entertainments sake...

In Y2000 China had 5 trillion gdp, or so they say…

5,000,000,000,000/1,300,000,000=$3846 of per capita output per year…

That equals about $320 per month…

Average wages in China (a good one at that) is about $100 usd per month (around 800rmb)

That means Chinese workers get to keep less than 1/3 of the spoils of their labors… the rest goes… well somewhere else…

Now compare to the US…

10,000,000,000,000/300,000,000= $34,000 per capita output…

Average US workers wages are close to $30,000 per year…

Average US worker keeps about 85% of the spoils of his labor…

Now back to China…

With 2% population increases (annually), in 2020 the population of China will be around 1.8 billion…

Then keep in mind 2% inflation… 20 years from now 1 rmb will buy about ½ of what it will buy now…

19,000,000,000,000/1,800,000,000=$10,500 (about) in annual per capita output…

If we take the same ratio of 1/3 take home… that equates to about $3500 per year in annual wages…

That equals about $300 per month in average wages…(about 2,400 rmb)

Adjusted for inflation 2,400 rmb 20 years from now equals about 1,200 rmb in todays wages…

1,200 rmb = about $150 per month….

Now folks are making $100 per month vs $150 per month in 20 years…. That is IF those predictions are true…and the CCP stays in control of things…

While relative to itself that’s pretty good, but my prediction is the dynamic of the Chinese market won’t change a whole lot in 20 years, or in between now and then…20 years from now US exporters still won’t have a huge market to export to…

China's "threat", especially to the US, is in no way created by its economy.

Its created by its instablity, propaganda, and beligerance... among other things...

45...we live in an age of globalization where the trend is for countries to unify together...

55...the mere fact that separatist movements exist in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere does not necessarily mean that separatism will be achieved, as you seem to believe...

I did not state that I believed separatism will be achieved. You are putting words in my mouth. I was responding to your statement that the trend is for countries to unify. The trend towards globalization is countered by another force that seeks localization. Look at the strong anti-UN and anti-NAFTA sentiment here in FreeRepublic. The trend towards regional governments will provoke a strong trend towards smaller enclaves where people share a common culture. Europe, Africa, and Asia are all experiencing a reverse diaspora as ethnic communities purify themselves. Not all separatism will succeed. In fact probably only a few will. There will be surprises where large nations will not achieve independence and small ones will.

55...The E. Asian tigers all transitioned to democracy peacefully after first developing their economies rapidly under one-party rule, didn't they?...

I would say no.

South Korea
The government of South Korea was imposed on it by the US military in 1945...Lacking an effective plan that devoid of specifics, General John R. Hodge and his XXIV Corps were sent to Korea and ordered to establish a United States Military Government in Korea. Unprepared and inexperienced in Korean affairs, General Hodge set out to create a military occupational government structure without a central plan issued from above. General Hodge's first course of action in Korea was to refuse to recognize the Korean People's Republic and its various "people's committees" as the legitimate governing body in Korea. Next, Hodge moved to "resurrect" former officials who had served under the Japanese and incorporated them into the USMGIK bureaucracy. The use of former pro-Japanese Koreans as officials in the new military government and the National Police alienated the great majority of Koreans. Hodge would later replace many of his "hand-picked" Japanese collaborators with Koreans who were not part of the former colonial governing structure because of heavy pressure emanating from the populace. link

Taiwan
Taiwan has a government imposed on it by the KMT. A violent riot in 1979 led to Martial Law and then democracy...In 1949, Chiang Kai-shek lost the war on the mainland, and fled to Taiwan, where he established the remainder of his regime. For the next four decades, the people of Taiwan lived under Martial Law, while the KMT attempted to maintain the fantasy that they ruled all of China, and would some day "recover" the mainland. The Chinese mainlanders who came over with Chiang Kai-shek constituted only 15 percent of the population of the island, but were able to maintain themselves in a position of power over the 85 percent native Taiwanese through tight control of the political system, police, military, educational system and media......The Kaohsiung Incident of December 1979 galvanized the Taiwanese on the island and overseas into political action. The tangwai ("outside-the-party") democratic opposition started to question the KMT's anachronistic claim to represent all of China, and began to work towards ending the 40-years' old martial law. In September 1986, this movement culminated in the formation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which then began its growth into a full-fledged opposition party.....The Martial Law was finally dropped in 1987, but replaced by a less-stringent National Security Law. However, it wasn't until 1991 that the KMT claim to rule all of China was dropped, and that aging Nationalist Chinese legislators -- elected on the mainland in 1947 -- were sent into retirement. Since then the island has made major strides in the direction of a fully democratic political system, but the KMT authorities continue to cling to this day to their outdated claim that "Taiwan is part of China." link

Singapore
Singapore has a government imposed on it by the British after the British almost lost the colony to the Communists. Martial Law gave way to democracy and then independence...When the Communist Party of Malaya tried to take over Malaya and Singapore by force, a state of emergency was declared in June 1948. The emergency lasted for 12 years. Towards the end of 1953, the British government appointed a commission under Sir George Rendel to review Singapore's constitutional position and make recommendations for change. The Rendel proposals were accepted by the government and served as the basis of a new constitution that gave Singapore a greater measure of self-government. link

Hong Kong
Hong Kong was a British Crown colony until 1999 when it was returned to the Chinese. China's "Basic Law" for Hong Kong is not Democracy...never in over 155 of colonial appointed rule has there been a democratic election in Hong Kong. One year ago a carefully staged procedure allowed for just one third of the legislature to be decided by direct vote. The rest of the legislature was decided. as always, by appointments from financial institutions and corporations. The overwhelming majority of the population did not vote.....The rule of this colony has been not only undemocratic, but also thoroughly racist. Although the population of Hong Kong is over 98% Chinese, the governor appointed by the British crown has never been a Chinese person. The Governor has always been a white British aristocrat. The judiciary is also a not elected by the population. It is appointed. In addition, Hong Kong has some of the most draconian laws of press censorship.....The U.S. media always refers to the prosperity of Hong Kong. What the media fails to mention is that this is prosperity for a small elite. Hong Kong has proportionately the largest number of millionaires in the world. It also has the greatest gap between rich and poor in all of Asia. Taxes on the wealthy are the lowest in the world. link

55...The nations surrounding China are becoming economically dependent on China whether they like it or not out of sheer economic necessity...

I agree whole heartedly with you on this. The Chinese are a force to be reckoned with. The powerhouses of Hong Kong and Singapore show what the Chinese are capable of. Those cities are mirrored in Chinese communities around the world. Ties are strong within the communities and economic power is a by-product. Whether China is whole or more than one country, the Chinese will dominate the region. The only break in Chinese dominance was the Age of European Empires starting in the 16th century.

...Yes, separatist movements exists, but it doesn't necessarily mean they will achieve their goals. This is because the overwhelming majority of any nation usually prefers to maintain the country's territorial integrity and they usually get their way. Countries usually want to maintain their territorial integrity in any case anyway. Globalization just makes them want to maintain their territorial integrity even more and, in addition, join together with other nations to form economic blocs....

I agree. Separatist movements rarely lead to independence. US history is a good example of that. We have survived numerous secession attempts starting right after the American Revolution. The War Between the States was only the biggest one. I disagree on your reason. Struggles of any kind, including war, are won by determined minorities. The American Revolution was won by 3% who were opposed by 3%.

Countries attempt to maintain their integrity because they are like any other living being. They aim for survival. They band together in the face of a common threat and drift apart in its absence. Modern examples are the Triple Alliance and Triple Entente, the Axis and Allies, NATO and Warsaw Pact. At the end of WW1, the winners went there separate ways. At the end of WW2, the US and its Allies began disarming only to have to rearm against the Soviets. At the end of the Cold War, our allies wasted no time in attacking us in every way but militarily. The coming struggle of West versus Islam will cause Western to band together and Arab to band together. Afterward, we will drift again until we face China.

Globalization is the modern version of the struggle of each generation since human history began.

...Sure, there will always be minorities who want to separate, but the 94%-majority Han who have the power don't want to separate but stay together, especially in light of globalization, so China is unlikely to break apart anytime soon no matter what minorities want. This is the simple reality of the situation. China has had minorities throughout its history, but that never stopped China from being a unified whole more or less for most of its history...

You are assuming the Han are a single homogenous people. They are different in the North, South, and West. The people of the coast are different from those of the interior. They have different local languages and local customs. They are large pockets of various religions around the country. China hasn't been unified more or less throughout history. It has pulsed in cycles that ebb and flow. At times it has been unified but just as often it has been broken into warring factions.

The + mark denotes a time of union covering all or most of present day China. Keep in mind that the dynasty only covered the area shown at its maximum and was less during its growth and decline. Total time since the Han for greater China is 1502 years. Total time since the Han for lesser China is 615 years. More than forty percent of China's time was spent as a smaller China. That doesn't include losses during each dynasty during transitions.

China's great strength lies in it's long common history. Until the Qing dynasty the mountains, desert, rivers and sea geographically protected it from outside influences.

2100b-1800b.....Xia Dynasty.....300yrs

1800b-1700b..................no dynasty.....100

1700b-1027b.....Shang Dynasty.....673
1027b-_221b.....Zhou Dynasty.....806
_221b-_207b.....Qin Dynasty.....14
_206b- _220..+..Han Dynasty.....426
_220 - _265.....Three Kingdoms.....45
_265 - _420..+..Chin Dynasty.....155

_420 - _618.................no dynasty.....198

_618 - _907..+..T'ang Dynasty.....289

_907 - _960.................no dynasty.....53

_960 - 1279.....Song Dynasty.....319
1279 - 1368..+..Yuan Dynasty, a part of the Mongol Empire.....89
1368 - 1644..+..Ming Dynasty.....276
1644 - 1911..+..Qing Dynasty.....267

link