In Y2000 China had 5 trillion gdp, or so they say…
5,000,000,000,000/1,300,000,000=$3846 of per capita output per year…
That equals about $320 per month…
Average wages in China (a good one at that) is about $100 usd per month (around 800rmb)
That means Chinese workers get to keep less than 1/3 of the spoils of their labors… the rest goes… well somewhere else…
Now compare to the US…
10,000,000,000,000/300,000,000= $34,000 per capita output…
Average US workers wages are close to $30,000 per year…
Average US worker keeps about 85% of the spoils of his labor…
Now back to China…
With 2% population increases (annually), in 2020 the population of China will be around 1.8 billion…
Then keep in mind 2% inflation… 20 years from now 1 rmb will buy about ½ of what it will buy now…
19,000,000,000,000/1,800,000,000=$10,500 (about) in annual per capita output…
If we take the same ratio of 1/3 take home… that equates to about $3500 per year in annual wages…
That equals about $300 per month in average wages…(about 2,400 rmb)
Adjusted for inflation 2,400 rmb 20 years from now equals about 1,200 rmb in todays wages…
1,200 rmb = about $150 per month….
Now folks are making $100 per month vs $150 per month in 20 years…. That is IF those predictions are true…and the CCP stays in control of things…
While relative to itself that’s pretty good, but my prediction is the dynamic of the Chinese market won’t change a whole lot in 20 years, or in between now and then…20 years from now US exporters still won’t have a huge market to export to…