Why the US "restrains" Israel; why Israel "waits", and why Arafat and Saddam are soon to be dust

one man's opinion

[ken5050]

Much has been written here on FR, and elsewhere in the media about why Sharon has not moved agressively against Arafat and the PLA, and why President Bush appears to be exercising a double standard in calling for Israel to show restraint, yet if one najes a straegic, rather than an emotional analysis of curent events in the Mid-East, the behavior and actions of the governments of both Israel and the US are a clear signal that action against both Iraq and the PLA is imminent. What every one forgets, or rather, chooses to overlook, is that at present we probably do not have a complete handle on all of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction...the labs, the weapons storage sites, the SCUD launchers, the entire mechanism to unleash destruction on the Mid-east.

[ken5050]

Israel has the military might to take out most of the armed forces of the Arab states that surround her. What she does NOT possess is the means to identify, target, and destroy ALL of the infrastructure of Iraq's WMDs. Only the US has that technological and military capability,a nd that is why, before any overt military action by Israel and the US, those sites MUST be identified and destroyed. If only one SCUD carrying a dirty nuke hits Israel, if one germ weapon is launched from an Iraqi fighter on a suicide mission, then we are looking at a major disaster. So Israel must wait, and scores of innocent civilians continue to die, until the US has identified all the targets. It is the sad calculus of terror warfare.

One can make the case that the Iraqi regime, rotten to the core, and based solely on terror, can be toppled without major military intervention of US troops. Assume that we are already talking to the Kurds, and other Iraqi dissidents, and possibly several leaderes of the Iraqi army. Assume that we terminate Saddam, his sons, the heads of the Iraqi army and intelligence, the secret police. The regime is over. But suppose, in the death throes of the regime, Saddam orders the use of his WMDs against Israel. It's likely that he'll do so, it fits his psychological profile. And it only takes one to get through to Tel Aviv. So we have to make very sure that we know where they are, and are highly confident that we can either capture or eliminate them ALL before hostilities commence. Sharon knows this also, which is why he is playing along with President Bush in this massive campaign of deception. Because if Israel were to strike now against the PLA with full military might, there is a 50/50, or greater chance, that Saddam would launch an attack against Israel.

So the work progresses, the SF troops are being inserted, taking up positions, gathering the intelligence. And we continue to pull the wool over their eyes, let them think they are winning. Consider today's statment by Lindsay Graham that he expects US actions against Iraq to begin in October. Congressman, and soon to be Senator, Graham, served nearly a decade with the USAF. If he thought it was October, would he say so? Hardly..but, if we keep sending them enough mixed and crossed signals, they won't know what to think.

But if one accepts my theory that Iraq can be taken with minimal troops, that the regime can be excised like a cancer, then the time frame is soon, very soom. Just remember that everything that was told, and projected, and assumed, and written and broadcast about what we owuld have to do in Afghanistan was 99% wrong.

So, within 30-60 days, the top Iraqis will all meet their makers. At the same time, we will destroy or capture ALL the WMD sites and labs. The Iraqi army stand down, the generals will turn the tubes on the armor around. The A-10's may get some target practice against the Republican Guard division, that'll take a few days. Then we'll send a troop presence in to control the key locations in Bagdad. Maybe even reopen the US embassy. You'll see the US flag flying in Bagdad before the 4th of July.

And while this is happening, the Israelis will be dealing with Arafat and the PLA. Netanyanu's solution will be implemented, the Palestinians wil be disarmed, the terrorists captured, and a security corridor put around Israel. And Israel will then have to begin the hard job of trying to bring democracy to the Palestinians.

And the rest of the Arab world will just sit there and do nothing, just accept the most stunning projection of American power, along witht he clear knowledge that if they don't clean their own houses, they're next..

[knarf]

Y'know ken, I think yeh got somethin', here.

[Chuzzlewit]

You are correct sir ! I hope to God you are correct.. Very good piece of analysis.

[Revolting cat!]

I'll go along with your conjecture without evidence, but what's the worst case scenario? Continuation of the status quo, which is what us FR sceptics and pessimists think is happening and will happen?

[StriperSniper]

That is pretty much the way I look at it hoping I'm right.
The only place that I differ is that I think it is even bigger.
Not just Iraq.

You might enjoy Batchelor and Alexander

I'm hitting the hay now, Good Night All.

[Southack]

If it was up to me, I'd send a pleasant little note to Putin, inviting him to take possession of his warm water ports, pipelines, and new oil fields in his Russian Federation of Persian states (formerly known as Iran).

If you really want to shake up both the Middle-Eastern hardliners as well as freak out their European apologists, a Russian army marching to the Persian Gulf would be a first class way to start.

Followed shortly by an American reorganization of the country formerly known as Iraq, of course...

[okie01]

I believe you are precisely right.

When it begins to happen, it will happen frighteningly fast. And there will be no stopping it. Then, it will be over.

And, if things go as planned, we'll catch the crystal vase just before it hits the floor.

[11B3]

That may be so if it weren't for additional enemies of the US - namely China & Russia - they keep throwing variables into the equation which makes the status quo untenable.

[mrb1960]

Very, very nice piece of reasoning there my good man.

One of the worst flaws we as Americans have is our impatience. We live in a society where we want what we want, and we want it now.

Most people don't understand the type of reasoning you put put forth in your message. It was simple and to the point. I do hope that one missile makes it through and hits the Dome, giving the site back to the Jews, but I hope it's not a WMD.

Lets just hope that things play out the way we want, and lets hope that the people GWB put in place do their job with the same precision that brought the Cold War to an end.

[sarasmom]

Absolutely delicious.If you are correct.

[11B3]

Excellent analysis - this would go a long way towards explaining why GWB has done some things we don't understand (CFR for instance) - he knows that in a short time things like that will be of no importance in the face of a limited nuclear war.

[untenured]

Two problems that I, admittedly a mere amateur, can see:

1. Assume that we are already talking to the Kurds, and other Iraqi dissidents, and possibly several leaderes of the Iraqi army.

I think the assumption that we can be in such close contact with high echelons of the Iraqi army may not be a good one. Hussein is all over them like a cheap suit. I think it's unlikely that we could cultivate many contacts at sufficiently high levels. Or rather, that at least it's quite possible that we can't.

2. Is it true that we have enough intel, especially human, to locate the WMD sites? I have my doubts. Even if we can, do we have the military capacity to take them out?

[The Great Satan]

I sure hope the picture is as rosy as you paint it. Unfortunately, I don't see it that way. By the 9-11 attacks, Saddam said to us: "Look what I can do with a handful of men who are willing to die, armed with nothing more than box cutters." The letters to Daschle et al added a postscript, "Now think what I can do with a handful of men armed with nothing but THIS anthrax, this dust." And I, for one, can't think of anything we can do to stop him, once he has nothing to lose.

[crystalk]

Maybe you should change your screen name to Rosie Scenario, but I could hope you were right!

You seem unaware that the solution of the Israeli Right including Bibi now involves TRANSFERRING the Pallies out of Israel's zone of tutelage, not trying to "tutel" them anything.

You have said you think the US flag will be flying over Baghdad by July 4. I would assign that the probability of 20%, to be generous.

What about the probability that Israel has shown any spunk by then?

I wish it was all just a careful, waiting game, and our leaders knew what they were doing, but it looks more like routine State Dept cowardice and treachery to me.

[11B3]

The time from the moment that he has nothing to lose to the time of his vaporization will be extremely short - probably only a few minutes. That's why the US can't telegraph its' actions, and seem rather arbitrary.

[11B3]

"I wish it was all just a careful, waiting game, and our leaders knew what they were doing, but it looks more like routine State Dept cowardice and treachery to me."

This is what I was talking about - I hope I'm right and that your feelings are what they want us to believe. Otherwise, we're in for one hell of a bumpy ride.

[crystalk]

It is one of the latter two of your options, but that leaves ??? in the running!

[LarryLied]

Sounds right to me. I think the Arabs know this however and that accounts for the upsurge in attacks on Israel. They know both are coming but they hope we can't do them at the same time.