Be Afraid, Very Afraid (North Korea Has Nukes, Long-range Missles)

National Review Online ^ | Mar 14, 2002 | Rich Lowry

[My Identity]

When you testify to Congress in measured tones, what you say doesn't always get the attention it deserves.

That's the lesson from Robert Walpole's March 11th testimony before a Senate subcommittee. Walpole is the National Intelligence Officer for Strategic and Nuclear Programs for the CIA and was there to update senators on the National Intelligence Estimate.

He calmly delivered the following blockbuster: "The Intelligence Community judged in the mid-1990s that North Korea had produced one, possibly two, nuclear weapons."

That means North Korea may already be a nuclear-weapon state. This is news.

Just last Sunday, the Washington Post reported, "North Korea may have enough fissile material for one or two nuclear weapons, U.S. analysts say."

But this conventional wisdom appears to be outdated.

Also according to Walpole, the North Korean "multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching the United States with a nuclear-weapon-sized payload, may be ready for flight testing."

Feeling secure yet?

The conventional wisdom also previously held that Iran could probably achieve an ICBM capability within 15 years.

Walpole reports, "All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM about mid-decade." That could, then, be in three or five years so. (He went on to say, "[the agencies] believe Iran is likely to take until the last half of the decade to do so. One agency further judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a successful test of an ICBM before 2015.")

It is clear that Iran has been overachieving when it comes to nuclear and ballistic-missile technology.

Walpole again: "The Intelligence Community judges that Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon. Most agencies assess that Tehran could have one by the end of the decade, although one agency judges it will take longer. All agree that Iran could reduce this time frame by several years with foreign assistance."

Foreign assistance is the great friend of rogues generally.

If it bought the right engines, according to Walpole, Iraq "could test an ICBM within about five years of the acquisition."

And if it slipped out from various U.N. prohibitions, "Iraq would be likely to test an ICBM probably masked as an SLV [space launch vehicle] before 2015, possibly before 2010 with significant foreign assistance."

The bottom line, according to Walpole: "All this leads us to assess that the probability that a missile with a weapon of mass destruction will be used against U.S. forces or interests is higher today than during most of the Cold War, and it will continue to grow as the capabilities of potential adversaries mature."

It is worth noting that all this was occurring before the Bush administration pursued missile defense and thought about designing a low-yield nuke to deter rogues from developing and using weapons of mass destruction.

So, the administration's critics have it backwards — Bush isn't creating a threatening international environment, he's reacting to one.

Unless the New York Times and others will now consider North Korea just another mature, responsible country — since, after all, it may already have joined the nuclear "club."

[My Identity]

Donald Rumsfeld didn't seem to think that this "Agreed Framework" was such a bad deal

Apparently you didn't read the history. The ABB nukes are light water reactors which are considered safer by the U.S. The problem is with NK's old heavy water reactor.

The problem with the Carter/Clinton agreement is that it only postponed the day of reckoning. In essence, the KorComms didn't have to do anything but sit tight for several years and they got two light water reactors. They did not have to shut down their old reactor, but only had to say that they did. Clinton bought them off for $6Bil and solved no U.S. problm but his own.

Pardon me, but your comments sound like hysterical world conspiracy tin-foil comments.

[rightwing2]

Apparently you didn't read the history. The ABB nukes are light water reactors which are considered safer by the U.S. The problem is with NK's old heavy water reactor. The problem with the Carter/Clinton agreement is that it only postponed the day of reckoning. In essence, the KorComms didn't have to do anything but sit tight for several years and they got two light water reactors. They did not have to shut down their old reactor, but only had to say that they did. Clinton bought them off for $6Bil and solved no U.S. problm but his own.

Actually, the House Republican Policy Caucus quoted expert testimony that said the light water reactors we were supposed to build them would enable the DPRK to build some 60 nukes per year using Plutonium 238 which would have been a pretty sad state of affairs for the US. Fortunately, after some vacillitation, it looks like Bush is not going to let the Japs/ROK build them and that the Russians will likely end up building a new nuclear reactor for the North Koreans instead.

[Icthus]

Be very, very afraid!

[Icthus]

Be VERY afraid!

[AmericanInTokyo]

The USFJ already have nukes deployed in Japan, despite what the treaty and Japanese Constitution says. everyone knows this, looks the otherway, and further, not a few people know right where they are.

[RightWhale]

. This island has already experienced the A-bomb

I was 2 years old then. My uncle flew over Hiroshima the day after, good view from the tailgun position. He doesn't talk much about it, except to say the devastation was immense. Considering that few such bombs are that small these days, I hope that cooler heads prevail and they never get used again.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

My challenge North Korea is that they don't have the guts to aim a missle at Berkley. Go ahead, I dare you.

[Pistias]

3. Hot subs. And I don't mean from Quizno's.

[CyberAnt]

I am not afraid of N. Korea. I don't care how many nukes they have. They don't have the will to use them. All they have is the willingness to threaten - that's it!

[weikel]

We have enough to blow North Korea to kingdom come we need a missle defense.

[mafree]

bump

[ChaseR]

bttt

[LarryLied]

Some won't pay attention until we get hit by one.

[ChaseR]

"Some won't pay attention until we get hit by one."

Exactly.