Be Afraid, Very Afraid (North Korea Has Nukes, Long-range Missles)

National Review Online ^ | Mar 14, 2002 | Rich Lowry

[My Identity]

When you testify to Congress in measured tones, what you say doesn't always get the attention it deserves.

That's the lesson from Robert Walpole's March 11th testimony before a Senate subcommittee. Walpole is the National Intelligence Officer for Strategic and Nuclear Programs for the CIA and was there to update senators on the National Intelligence Estimate.

He calmly delivered the following blockbuster: "The Intelligence Community judged in the mid-1990s that North Korea had produced one, possibly two, nuclear weapons."

That means North Korea may already be a nuclear-weapon state. This is news.

Just last Sunday, the Washington Post reported, "North Korea may have enough fissile material for one or two nuclear weapons, U.S. analysts say."

But this conventional wisdom appears to be outdated.

Also according to Walpole, the North Korean "multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching the United States with a nuclear-weapon-sized payload, may be ready for flight testing."

Feeling secure yet?

The conventional wisdom also previously held that Iran could probably achieve an ICBM capability within 15 years.

Walpole reports, "All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM about mid-decade." That could, then, be in three or five years so. (He went on to say, "[the agencies] believe Iran is likely to take until the last half of the decade to do so. One agency further judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a successful test of an ICBM before 2015.")

It is clear that Iran has been overachieving when it comes to nuclear and ballistic-missile technology.

Walpole again: "The Intelligence Community judges that Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon. Most agencies assess that Tehran could have one by the end of the decade, although one agency judges it will take longer. All agree that Iran could reduce this time frame by several years with foreign assistance."

Foreign assistance is the great friend of rogues generally.

If it bought the right engines, according to Walpole, Iraq "could test an ICBM within about five years of the acquisition."

And if it slipped out from various U.N. prohibitions, "Iraq would be likely to test an ICBM probably masked as an SLV [space launch vehicle] before 2015, possibly before 2010 with significant foreign assistance."

The bottom line, according to Walpole: "All this leads us to assess that the probability that a missile with a weapon of mass destruction will be used against U.S. forces or interests is higher today than during most of the Cold War, and it will continue to grow as the capabilities of potential adversaries mature."

It is worth noting that all this was occurring before the Bush administration pursued missile defense and thought about designing a low-yield nuke to deter rogues from developing and using weapons of mass destruction.

So, the administration's critics have it backwards — Bush isn't creating a threatening international environment, he's reacting to one.

Unless the New York Times and others will now consider North Korea just another mature, responsible country — since, after all, it may already have joined the nuclear "club."

[hchutch]

Then I suppose you'd have no trouble if, just to make sure North Korea doesn't threaten Japan, we provided the Japanese a mix of nuclear-tipped Tomahawks and B61 gravity bombs.

I, for one, do not trust the North Koreans with them, and if they so much as TWITCH the wrong way, we ought to take their nukes out.

[Poohbah]

Iran's behavior WRT the rest of the world may change dramatically very soon. It seems that not everyone in Iran is eager to achieve glorious martyrdom for Allah, and they're getting a wee bit tired of the mullahs behaving like the southern end of northbound horses.

Gosh--an Iranian government NOT dedicated to imposing Islam by the sword on any and all. What a concept...

[hchutch]

No, but they may decide to either threaten Japan with the nuclear weapons or to launch the nukes at American bases in Japan. Kin Jong-Il is pretty psycho from what I've heard.

[JimSEA]

Both sound good to me.

[sushiman]

I'm afaid . I live on Kyuhsu ; one of the 4 big islands , in southern Japan which is the closest to the Korean peninsula , and home to several Naval and Air Force bases . This island has already experienced the A-bomb , you may recall , in Nagasaki .

[INSENSITIVE GUY]

This is what the results are after a country starves its people.You would be hard pressed to find a dog walking around over there.AMERICA NEEDS MORE ICBM's!

[cardinal4]

Didn't the Clintons work out a deal where N. Korea agreed not to make nukes?

Yes,it took a village.

[rightwing2]

Foreign assistance is the great friend of rogues generally."

Soooo. Lets see here. I have the answer! It fits perfectly with the ongoing Demopublican policy of spreading freedom. Trade has proven to be the best effective weapon in mollifying hostility and bringing nation's into the mainstream. Consequently, Bush should immediately extend the Free Trade Area of the Americas to Iran and immediate give foreign assistance to Iran.......

Indeed the United States provides $100 billion in 'foreign aid' trade surplus money each and every year to prop up the rogue state terrorist regime in Beijing, the most Hitlerian mass murdering regime in world history. In return, they continue to mass murder hundreds of thousands of political and religious dissidents in the laogai death camps each and every year and commi 65 million forced abortions and infanticides annually. Moreover, they threaten US cities like Los Angeles with nuclear annihilation if the US ever dares to come to defend their free Chinese ally on Taiwan against a ChiCom military assault. So the answer to all of our problems is to increase our trade, aid, credits and dual use military technology to the other rogue states and Iraq, Iran, and North Korea so that they too will mellow over time and be transformed into capitalist free trading nations like Communist China where the people will be free to choose whether or not they shall be enslaved in the laogai death camps and whether or not to support the rogue state government that enslave them. Those that choose not to will be provided free jobs, housing and food accomodations in the laogai re-education camps of their choice. Only problem is that they have a 25% death rate, which allows new potential residents to come and enjoy the same government 'benefits' as the deceased once enjoyed.

[Landru]

"Consequently, Bush should immediately extend the Free Trade Area of the Americas to Iran and immediate give foreign assistance to Iran..."

Don't laugh too hard, wiseguy.
This administration still has several years left.

[mamelukesabre]

I vote for a big push to develope miniaturized nuclear weapons.......like shoulder fired nuclear missiles, and missiles launched by carrier based fighter jets. Maybe even large caliber nuclear bullets......say in the 20-40mm range.

[weikel]

China ain't as bad as North Korea by a long shot. Most North Koreans would kill their mothers to get to China.

[boris]

"Didn't the Clintons work out a deal where N. Korea agreed not to make nukes?"

Clinton sent Jimmy "Neville Chamberlain" Carter to N. Korea to sell his country out in his never-ending frantic quest for a Nobel Peace Prize.

N. Korea also agreed to stop selling weapons to terrorist states. And they agreed to allow international inspections of suspected nuclear sites.

Do you suppose they complied with any of these "agreements"?

--Boris

[earplug]

Would the rest of Asia/Red China be able to predict and track where our North Korea bound Nukes were going. Would Red China launch thinking that we were trying to hit them? Would our new friends in Russia and Pakistan try and do a little nukeing at India or China? Would there be enough EMP to blind our intel from finding if Iraq or others launch at other nations. I think a little fear is in order.

[boris]

"Oh yes. I'm VERY afraid that North Korea is going to use it's ENORMOUS nuclear arsenal to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US."

"JHC, gimme a break. The only reason a country like North Korea has nukes is as a last-ditch self-defense measure. The only way they would strike is if the US or South Korea invaded them and threatened to topple their leaders.

"Solution: Don't invade North Korea or any other nuclear armed country."

Is it possible for a human being to be more delusional and wrong headed?

China has something like 18-25 nukes, and when the U.S. sent an ambassador to protest warlike moves against Taiwan, one of their leaders politely inquired how fond we are of Los Angeles.

North Korea is ruled by certified madmen, who are monomaniacs about "reunification" with the South. They trained assassins in hermetically-sealed environments, fanatics programmed to bomb planes and murder S. Korean leaders. Their world-view is centered on invading the South, and their nuclear-weapons program is designed to permit them to deal with the few thousand U.S. troops who stand in their way.

What you fail to comprehend is that, in the minds of these fanatics, a single nuke is all they need. They calculate that the U.S., with all of its weapons, can be deterred by the threat of using a single nuke against one of its cities. Your thinking shows that--at least for some misguided Americans--their calculation is correct.

So "don't invade any nuclear armed country," eh? Can we just pre-emptively nuke them instead?

--Boris

[boris]

"I vote for a big push to develope miniaturized nuclear weapons.......like shoulder fired nuclear missiles, and missiles launched by carrier based fighter jets. Maybe even large caliber nuclear bullets......say in the 20-40mm range."

The Davy Crockett was a bazooka-type missile with a W54 nuclear warhead. It could be mounted on a Jeep, or a three-person team could carry it. The weapon system used a spin-stabilized, unguided rocket fired from a recoiless rifle. While early atomic missiles were heavy and awkward, the Davy Crockett was only 30 inches long, 11 inches wide and weighed 76 pounds.

Two types were made: a 120-mm with a range between 1,000 to 6,500 feet; and a 155-mm with a range between 1,000 to 13,000 feet. The Davy Crockett also could carry a conventional high-explosive round for use as an anti-tank weapon. Stockpiled from 1960 to 1971, the Davy Crockett brought nuclear capability to the infantry.

[Recovering_Democrat]

then you can be afraid for both of us. ;-)

[Bob J]

Radio Free Republic Presents

The Banana Republican Hour

With your host Luis Gonzalez

This week’s guest:

Brothers to the Rescue founder, José Basulto

---

On February 24, 1996, three light aircraft left Miami on a routine flight. Their missions, to search the waters off the Florida Coast for rafters trying to reach the US shores, and bring them help by guiding the US Coast Guard to their location. That day in February, only one plane would return to its home base in Miami.

Tune in to Radio FreeRepublic this Thursday, March 14, at 9 PM EST, and listen to the actual sounds of a terrorist in action, murdering unarmed American citizens.

Sr. José Basulto, founder of Brothers to the Rescue and pilot of the surviving Cessna, will shed light on the events of that day, and detail how the Clinton administration withheld advanced knowledge of the attack from the humanitarian volunteer group, helping seal the fate of these four courageous flyers.

Radio FreeRepublic, fearless talk radio.

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[concerned about politics]

Bill Clinton sold everything America had to win his re-election. This isn't a suprise.
If America gets attacked, hey, at least Bill got the Whitehouse for an extra 4 years, aye?