[Dan Day]

"Without knowing the history of earth in detail, anything said about the probabilities of this happening is speculation."

That's incorrect. The specific math involved in calculating probabilities is not speculation.

But for pete's sake, you can't calculate a valid probability at all until you have a good idea what sort of process you're attempting to mathematically model.

Thus his point.

[Southack]

"But for pete's sake, you can't calculate a valid probability at all until you have a good idea what sort of process you're attempting to mathematically model. Thus his point."

And you'll find that the math in question for this thread DOES have a good sort of idea for the process that it is modelling, thus my retort to his point...