[Southack]

"But for pete's sake, you can't calculate a valid probability at all until you have a good idea what sort of process you're attempting to mathematically model. Thus his point."

And you'll find that the math in question for this thread DOES have a good sort of idea for the process that it is modelling, thus my retort to his point...

[Dan Day]

And you'll find that the math in question for this thread DOES have a good sort of idea for the process that it is modelling

No, actually, as I pointed out previously, it's a grade-school-level approach to a complex issue.

And you can't model chemical synthesis reactions with the simple independent-event probability calculation you learned on the first day of probability class.