Posted on 11/30/2001 7:50:36 AM PST by maggie
HAIFA (November 30) - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would almost certainly give the order to hit Israel with non-conventional weapons if he felt his regime was in imminent danger of destruction in the event of a major US attack, according to Iraqi affairs expert Prof. Amatzia Baram.
Baram, of the University of Haifa, acted as an adviser on Iraq to senior officials of the American administration while on sabbatical in the US two years ago.
He stressed, however, that the threat of an Iraqi retaliation could be reduced to virtually zero if the US and Israel were to adopt a series of measures, which he declined to discuss for security reasons.
According to Baram, director of the university's Jewish-Arab Center and the Gustav-Heinemann Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Iraq is believed to have between six to 50 ballistic missiles and a few mobile launchers.
There is also the possibility of Saddam using drones or suicide pilots as a means for conveying some of his arsenal of biological and chemical agents and even nuclear waste to Israel's shores.
Baram noted that the radioactive material would be extremely difficult to load into bombs or missile warheads, and would be as dangerous to the attackers as to the people in the intended target area.
It was more likely, therefore, that Saddam would try to use his remaining missiles fitted with biological or chemical agents - even though these have never been field-tested properly and could malfunction by burning out when re-entering the atmosphere or become unbalanced and go out of control.
Baram revealed that Saddam had given prior orders to his missile commanders to launch Scuds with non-conventional warheads at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War in the event that Baghdad was surrounded and about to fall, and communications with himself were cut.
The orders - never published or even publicly acknowledged - were gleaned by members of the UN's special commission to supervise Iraqi weapons of mass destruction from interviews with leading Iraqi officials.
"I believe the reports of these orders, based on what we already know, my own studies, and interviews and from overt sources, to be very solid and this gives us further data about Saddam and his way of thinking," said Baram, who expounded on the issue in a recently published article in the highly-respected US magazine, the Monterey-based Non-Proliferation Review.
On this basis, Baram is convinced that Saddam would be prepared to sacrifice Baghdad and all its citizens, believing that a non-conventional strike on Israel would result in a nuclear retaliation by the latter on Iraq's capital.
"This is the Iraqi perception of Israel's likely response to a non-conventional Iraqi attack on its territory, although nobody can know for certain how Israel would react.
"Saddam's theory, apparently, is that such massive destruction and loss of life certainly in Iraq and possibly in Israel would put an end to any war being waged against Iraq by America and its allies.
"He seems to believe that he personally and most of his elite would be able to survive the devastation by remaining in their underground nuclear shelters scattered all around Iraq, and that after the dust and fallout settled would emerge and declare victory.
"It should be stressed, however, that Saddam is not a suicidal type and would only give the orders for non-conventional attacks on Israel if he felt his regime was in imminent danger of collapse either from non-stop US bombing attacks or a massive offensive involving also the use of ground forces," Baram said.
Baram maintained it was less likely that Saddam would order the launch of conventional missiles against Israel in the event of a limited US assault because this would expose the continued existence of such weapons, and give America a powerful diplomatic tool to press for indefinite sanctions against Iraq and the need for renewed UN supervision. He also noted that Israel a decade after the Gulf War is in a much better position to protect itself against missile attacks of any kind through the Arrow and vastly improved Patriot anti-missile systems. "Given this and other measures that could and should be adopted, including applying psychological pressure on the Iraqi army and particularly missile unit commanders, there is an excellent prospect of averting the Armageddon scenario completely," said Baram.
"Certainly, in my opinion, the dangers do not constitute sufficient reasons for the US to refrain from trying to topple a regime that poses such a danger to stability in the region and the world in general. On the contrary, it seems to me that the US will have to eliminate Saddam's regime while using the measures and means which I cannot elaborate upon to minimize the risks," Baram added.
Saddam thought that he and his would survive and he would be able to claim victory over Israel for all Arabs who, also, survived.
If he is going to send a missile towards Israel, maybe it will land on the Al-Aqsa mosque?
If they do complete the anti-missile system (they used the Patriot system during the gulf war) I expect the unamen corner to howl in protest that it will compete with our patriot missile system and how ungrateful the Israelis must be for designing their own when we give them all that aid.
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