Osama bin Laden is Already Dead (In Depth Opinion Piece)

various sources | 11-28-01 | HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

Osama bin Laden is Already Dead

By Highwheeler at freerepublic.com

In the weeks since the terrorist airliner hijackings and the subsequent attacks on the WTC and Pentagon, both U.S. military and U.S. political strategies have been slowly revealed. Not every piece of information was overt and obvious to the casual observer about these operations. While certain pieces of information were outwardly and proudly proclaimed, most were the carefully and heavily edited bits of information that still remain the most interesting. I am talking about the sporadic information that was missing, retracted, or just puzzling in its nature. This thesis is a compilation of the real data, real press released information, and extrapolations created about that missing, retracted and puzzling data. These data are then used to build conclusions on the events in the war against Afghanistan leading to the conclusion that Osama bin Laden is already dead.

As you read this keep these ideas in mind: 1) These are actual public-domain facts tempered with my opinion based on logic, history, technology, and human nature. 2) Please don’t jump to your conclusions until you have read the whole column, it is a fairly complex analysis and summary of events, and 3) some of the pieces of information are obvious but still necessary in order to completely draw the conclusions.

 

Objectives of the U.S. War on Terrorism:

1. The U.S. does not want to bring Osama to the U.S. for any kind of trial, it would make the OJ trial look like a neighborhood bake sale.
2. We do not want to create a martyr out of Osama.
3. We want to destroy Osama’s influence by killing him.
4. We want to disassemble the entire terrorist network, both physically and financially.
5. Destroying the entire terrorist network will take years to finish, and should be done by first removing the head.

 

Strategies required to reach U.S. Objectives:

1. Immediately freeze and acquire all possible terrorist related asset accounts in the world, removing the financial fuel of terrorism as much as possible, and to severely restrict the free flow of any remaining capital or assets.
2. Identify, round-up, and investigate all known terrorist suspects in the U.S.
3. Use heavy bombing in the first few hours on targets that are of special interest or high value to the terrorists to maximize the destruction, and to minimize the effect of their defensive response.
4. Begin physical elimination of terrorists and terrorist locations once the most critical targets have been identified.
5. We must kill the leader, Osama bin Laden, as soon as possible.
6. We must leave no witnesses, no time, no date, no place, nor a body with which to associate the demise of bin Laden. If we did:

1. It would create a rallying point for the terrorists, and
2. Notify the terrorist organizations that a new leader is required immediately to fill the newly vacant position.
3. May trigger pre-planned acts of terrorism as a direct response to the demise of bin Laden.

 

Assumptions:

1. Over the past 8 years (while Clinton was fostering and/or ignoring terrorism, or making the U.S. look weak in the eyes of terrorists) the FBI and CIA had been keeping fairly close tabs on known terrorists both here in the U.S. and abroad. (substantiation below)
2. We have satellites and other above-ground-level vehicles that can actually read the brand on a pack of cigarettes laying on the ground, and can also clearly view minor temperature variation such as body heat in the IR spectrum and use night vision technology. There was a full moon on October 2, 2001, 5 days before the initial attacks in Afghanistan, which would have made night vision extremely useful. (Readily Available Technology Theorem)
3. That the CIA has been in constant contact with planted terrorist operatives in Afghanistan before and during the bombing of Afghanistan. (James Bond Theorem)
4. Osama has become the hero of the taliban, and as such, the terrorists look at him with reverence and admiration, and want to be at least near him, even if they can't sleep in the same cave. (Bask In The Hero’s Reflected Glow Theorem)
5. An intelligent person would not create a huge risk by demanding something that they were not prepared to accept or really didn’t want. (Be Careful What You Ask For Theorem)
6. That there is actually no honor among thieves. (Jimmy Hoffa Theorem)

 

Additional facts:

1. Over 140 known US terrorists were taken into custody within 4 days of 9-11. Since then there are now 604 "detainees" in U.S. hands. This means that the FBI/CIA has been keeping track of terrorists.
2. Over 300 worldwide financial asset accounts were frozen well within 2 weeks of 9-11. This also means we have been keeping track of terrorists to some degree.
3. We spent almost a month in "strategery" before the first attack on Afghanistan. 26 or 27 Days depending on how you count, to be exact.
4. Saturation bombing of the terrorists and their facilities started on Oct 7.
5. On or about Thursday, Oct 11, 2001, less than 7 full days after bombing started, George Bush-43 stated during a press conference in no uncertain terms that he would "halt air strikes" if they handed over Osama bin Laden. The Taliban response was "Our jihad (holy struggle) . . . will continue until the last breath for the defense of our homeland and Islam" Which really didn’t address Bush’s offer to "halt air strikes" if they would turn over bin Laden. http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/central/10/13/ret.taliban.rejection/index.html
6. On October 25, 2001, USA Today reported that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had said that we might never catch Osama bin Laden. http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/oped/tucker/01/binladen.html When asked about this later in the day at a press briefing, the Secretary backtracked. Under pressure from reporters, he said "I think we're going to get him."

Conclusions:

 

• The strategy Rumsfeld was initially employing was designed to create the illusion to the terrorists that Osama is still alive, that our intent is not necessarily to kill him, and to create a sound reason for the US to continue the campaign against terrorism.

• The only options for dealing with bin Laden that still meet all 5 Objectives and Strategy #6 above are to:

1. kidnap Osama undercover, take him out to sea, tie a big brick to him and kick him overboard. This is too risky since there would likely be many witnesses.
2. Kill him on the spot or after his capture when found. This leaves even more witnesses, a body, possible videotape.
3. Kill him and coincidentally bury him in a cave along with all nearby witnesses.

• The Talibanis would give up Osama if they could actually find him. Turning him over to the U.S. would produce four desirable outcomes from the Taliban’s point of view":

1. It would force Bush to keep his word to "halt air-strikes" in Afghanistan (or severely jeopardize or cripple his authority by reneging on his offer), and
2. It saves the remaining terrorist network, and
3. It would royally screw up the U.S.’s politically correct judicial system for years and years, and
4. They would be eligible to receive the $1B or $25M bounty (depending on which offer you believe) currently on bin Laden’s head. They can always use the money to continue terrorist activities and save their own lives and network in the process. Of course, this conclusion assumes that the Talibanis are not complete idiots, a poor assumption for sure, but does not diminish the other conclusions in anyway.

• In his press conference, Bush would have been certifiably out of his mind to publicly state that he would "halt air strikes" in exchange for Osama unless he was knew there was ABSOLUTELY NO WAY bin Laden could be handed over. This proposed deal, if enacted by the Talibanis by actually handing over bin Laden, would have violated all 5 U.S. Objectives of the War on Terrorism, plus violated the last 3 Strategies of the War.

• Using a ground offensive instead of the airstrikes to capture Osama is dangerous, obvious and slow, therefore it creates a low probability of successful capture of Osama. Disposal of the evidence is still a big problem with a ground offensive. This would also create at least some American witnesses to his demise, and violates Strategy #5. The information would leak out eventually.

 

[SCHROLL]

Yeah, but he better start counting his virgins. He's not going to be around much longer.

[HighWheeler]

Final Anaylsis by Highwheeler (This is the Author’s opinion based on the above real information and author-assumed information):

Osama was killed in the first 5 days of the bombing campaign, probably on the first night while night vision technology would still be of added significant value. The U.S. generally knew where Osama was located prior to 9-11, but honed down his local zone of occupation in the 26 days prior to the bombing. Satellites and Predator spy planes were collecting real-time data on the suspected locations of Osama to narrow down the exact location. The Pentagon analyzed the recon photos to narrow the range, then used the bee-hive theory of probable location and confirmation. You can find the most important bee in a hive by finding the vibrant, dense cluster of worker bees surrounding their leader. Even at night, the IR signatures and night vision of the mobile and settled terrorist wanna-bees would create a radiating pattern, with all individuals’ movement and positions generally pointing to Osama’s location.

By waiting 26 days before bombing, a relatively false sense of security would be created for the terrorists. They would have sufficient time, and more importantly, a level of comfort and confidence in them to find Osama and stay near him. The response by terrorist followers to search and find Osama did in effect reveal bin Laden’s detailed position. Weeks were needed to finally settle on bin Laden’s actual position. Prior to bombing, The CIA confirmed his position with Predator drone aircraft and personnel operatives on the ground.

In the first night-time bombing raids, Osama’s entire surrounding Active Zone was thoroughly destroyed all the way out to a miles-wide buffer zone of absolutely no human activity. Bunker busters and conventional bombs fell continually for hours in the Active Zone, laying a continuous encircling carpet of utter destruction from which nothing larger than bacteria could survive. During the bombing runs, heavy jamming of cell phone frequencies made all cell phones and other forms of radio communication used by the terrorists ineffective.

Although nighttime can reveal the positions of explosions, the flash of light lasts only a moment compared with the resulting smoke, which can be seen for 10s of miles and for hours afterwards. By morning, all dense smoke evidence of the night’s bombings were not visible for miles beyond the Active Zone and the encircling Perimeter Zone.

Afterwards, for days later, everything that was detected to be moving or radiating energy inside the Active Zone was surgically struck with Apaches. Satellites and drones transmitted IR photos to assure that any body heat signatures were cold within the Active Zone. To create the illusion that the Active Zone was not necessarily Osama’s location, strikes were conducted all over parts of Afghanistan as a diversion.

Early on October 11, Bush was notified that the energy gradient in the Active Zone was flat, meaning that no bodies were alive, and no forms of electronic radiation were detected. The carefully constructed press conference speech was drafted and delivered stating that the US would "halt air strikes" if the Taliban would hand over bin Laden.

These concentrated air strikes met all 5 objectives and the last 4 Strategies shown above, and intentionally leave bin Laden’s death forever in question. The Active Zone is still maintained under surveillance, and any activity heading toward the Active Zone is stopped. For security and deterrence, several other zones are maintained to mimic the Active Zone.

[SCHROLL]

Since Afghanistan is landlocked are you purposing we fly the oil out? It's about not having a repeat of 911.

[Michael_Michaelangelo]

Maaaaaaaan you have echoed my thoughts to a tee! I have been telling people that Osama is already gone since a week after the initial attack. Why say you got him? That would be a silly move on our part. Furthermore, if he were still alive, we would have seen more terrorist attacks of some sort, somewhere. As it were, there was no-one to execute the order, as both Laden and Omar were vaporized along with hundreds of the most militant Talibunnies. Don't fu** with the U.S. Buy some stock. Volunteer some time. Peace. MM

[SusanUSA]

((applause)) See? I told ya. :-)

BTW, if Sabertooth ever gets his sorry ______ over here and posts his Osama Pool, you'll see how much I agree with your theory.(But NOW I'm thinkin' I was off a couple of days?)

[Billie]

You've done a lot of research and put a lot of work into this, Wheeler, and kudos are in order. I want to KNOW he's dead, though, and I don't care one whit how it happened or who did it. I just want to see his stinkin' corpse.

[Tallguy]

Don't get me wrong, I like your analysis. You may well be correct in your conclusion that Osama is already dead. If he is then the whole world has been treated to a graphic demonstration of what the US Military means when it refers to "full spectrum dominance."

I still have that problem with the "OJ Trial" analogy. The Al-Queda organization, we are told, is like an organized crime syndicate. While strategic directives come from the top (OBL), the operational details are left to his capos. OBL is very likely familiar with the American legal system, but it is doubtful that his key subordinates are. And they, after all, are the ones who would be giving him up.

[HighWheeler]

I still have that problem with the "OJ Trial" analogy.

I did not make the OJ trial analogy a consideration of OBL, it is not stated that way, it is a U.S. consideration for bringing him to the U.S. for trial, to understate that we did not want him in the country.

The Al-Queda organization, we are told, is like an organized crime syndicate. While strategic directives come from the top (OBL), the operational details are left to his capos. OBL is very likely familiar with the American legal system, but it is doubtful that his key subordinates are. And they, after all, are the ones who would be giving him up.

If OBL were alive he would be flaunting his presence to this day, just as he was doing immediately after 9-11 (In fact, I suspect the videotape helped expose his actual location). The Taliban responded to Bush within two days with a FU statement. They were still in the USSR defeat mindset, and possibly didn't understand they were facing their own demise. If they were smart, they would have said "Sure! we'll have him to you on Tuesday!" As you can see, Bush was taking a major risk.

Either way, the actual and potential responses of OBL (none) and the Taliban (FU) doesn't undermine any other parts of the argument. The supporting evidence and the potential repercussions of the evidence all point to OBL's death.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Good analysis ... I see nothing wrong with your logic, but (unfortunately) the real world sometimes isn't logical.

I am deeply, deeply "troubled" = NOT worried actually, so much as distrusting or skeptical = by the simple fact that OBL HASN'T been seen, photographed, put on the cell phone, or taped doing anything for so long.

Here we (supposedly) have this super-terrorist (and terrorism DEMANDS public exposure and public acts to maintain itself) .... who is pure and simply invisible.

I can't prove WHY he's invisible, but he's invisible. Dead? trapped underground?

It's more and more likely every day.

[snippy_about_it]

Where is this pool?

I believe Sabertooth is keeping it.

Look Here

P.S. Good luck, I've already lost unless they find him soon and can say he's been dead and died on 11/28/01.

[HighWheeler]

Thanks for looking it over. I assume you are a licensed Professional Engineer with your PE designation in your FR name. I am also a licensed P.E.

I was impressed by your fraud analysis last year at this time regarding the goron attempt to take the election in Florida, so I thought you would make a good reviewer of this logic.

OBL hasn't revealed himself at all since immediately after the attacks. There is the strong scent of propaganda on both sides of this war, but I think ours is for offense, and the OBL/Taliban propaganda is for defense.

If he is still alive, he sure isn't making any use of his time and opportunities. I'll bet his cell phone needs recharging too, but the caves don't have any outlets. Such luck.

[Robert A Cook PE]

It's troubling that I can't offer more than speculation, but here goes:

OBL heads a loose (highly financed, but "unofficial") group of what can only be called "outlaws" - in the truest sense of the word. These are fanatics, highly dedicated - but in different ways.

At least SOME are highly dedicated!
Some will be opportunists who will encourage and demand OTHERS fight forever, but will NEVER choose to die themselves;
Some will be quitters (but who are afraid to quit since they are isolated in Afghanistan - thus they will fight to defend themselves against the Northern Alliance and US)
Some are already wavering (ready to quit as soon as they can sneak out of the cave without themselves getting shot in the back),
And some are so consumed by zealotry that they (like the Japanese in WWII) can only be stopped by death.

So, how does OBL control and remain the military and political and "spiritual leader" of these different people if HE is ONLY seen as a sneaking, timid, cave-dwelling coward who can no longer "influence events" ..... ?

Was OBL himself the actual (physical and military) leader that he is made out to be?

Either he remains in "control" by pure force - not likely, since his "force" is only as effective as his body guard's rifle shot - or he never really had control (only money!) in the first place. Not likely, since if his forces are spearated into different caves, he can't "control" otehr caves and little broken networks of isolated, not-paid, part-time militia.

If it was money, then money can't "buy" this kind of fervor and dedication.

If it were "religion" (hatred of the west and Israel) as the burning flame (the ultimate reason) for these outlaws' CONTINUING will-to-fight (which is the REAL ENEMY that we face!) then .... death of the ultimate extremist leaders is the only thing that will work.

Something else is at work here: OBL (if what are told is correct) isn't in command of any large group of organized militarized "army" any more.....or he is such a religion unto himself that the Taliban is willing to die BECAUSE of him..... Not reasonable either.

Example: If in WWII, we killed Hitler - but DID NOT physically take ovver Germany, the military would keep in control of the country, and the Jewish extermination would as long as Goebbeals, Himmler, and the SS remained in charge of the camps. Goering and Spear Donitz and the other generals could keep the "nation" running as a Nazi empire.

But, if the extremist Nazi leaders (in the SS nad elsewhere were killed) that are the soul and emotion and continued pressure behind the Nazi "religion" of murder, then the army and navy would surrender when faced with military defeat.

Military forces can be defeated. Religious fanatics cannot be defeated except by isolation and death.

[GUIDO]

I love this post because I to have thought the same thing, but one thing troubles me and maybe the answer has been mentioned amongst the many replies but if he was dead why wouldn't his closest guards, companions, etcc... whatever they are called say anything about it. I fully understand why we would not say anything at this time but I just don't know about them. Enlighten me please.

[moodyskeptic]

bump for a beautiful round two opinion.

If Osama is dead, I don't want the world to know abouit it. Reminds me of an old Hanes TV ad: Osama doesn't say "uncle" until I say Osama says "uncle"

[HighWheeler]

Please read this Final Analysis. I wrote a possible scenario as to why nobody else near him is alive to talk.

[MeekOneGOP]

BUMP - I'll be back!

[Caipirabob]

I'll believe that OBL is dead when I see his dismembered remains displayed on the trestles of the Verrazano Bridge.

[princess leah]

I remember reading a post here on Free Republic about Bin Laden reportedly being killed and then I e-mailed my brother-in-law in Germany who is in the military working on special ground force training exercises...he e-mailed me back when I asked if there was any truth to that rumor and he responded, "we may never catch Bin Laden" which is the same thing the higher ups are saying...sounds like a directive that was issued to say in response to any inquiries?