Posted on 11/21/2001 3:11:17 PM PST by HighWheeler
It's time to start planning strategy.
Review the following table of all 34 of the 2002 Senate Races. Of the 34 races, several Dem Seats have a potential to be flipped to Republican (shown in green rows), a couple of Repub seats have a potential to be flipped to Dem. (shown in yellow rows) These flips are based on the some assumptions:
- Using only the 2000 Prez election results to indicate vulnerability, the green rows indicate a potential flip to Republican, The yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT. this assumes that Geo Bush will participate in the 2002 election campaigns and that he has coattails a year from now.
- The races in light blue are where the presidential election difference was under 5% regardless of presidential race outcome.
- The governor column is added as a reference, to indicate possible push or pull from the state's governor.
- The "Other Senator" column is added to show push or pull from the state's other senator.
There is a strong possibility that the GOP could win several key races, South Dakota being one, and turn the Senate over to the GOP with a 3 Senator margin.
No. | State | Incumbent Senator | SenatorParty | Is Senate Candidate Vulnerable To Losing Seat? (based only on state's 2000 presidential election going to other party) | 2000 Presidential Candidate's Margin of victory. (neg number indicates state won by Gore) | The State Governor's party & next election year | State's Other Senator and party |
1 | Alabama | Jeff Sessions | Rep | 14.91% | |||
2 | Alaska | Ted Stevens | Rep | 30.95% | |||
3 | Arkansas | Tim Hutchinson | Rep | 5.45% | |||
4 | Colorado | Wayne Allard | Rep | 8.36% | |||
5 | Delaware | Joseph Biden | Dem | -13.06% | |||
6 | Georgia | Max Cleland | Dem | Yes | 11.67% | Dem 02 | Zell Miller (D) |
7 | Idaho | Larry Craig | Rep | 39.53% | |||
8 | Illinois | Richard Durbin | Dem | -12.02% | |||
9 | Iowa | Tom Harkin | Dem | Close | -0.32% | Dem 02 | Chuck Grassley (R) |
10 | Kansas | Pat Roberts | Rep | 20.80% | |||
11 | Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | Rep | 15.13% | |||
12 | Louisiana | Mary Landrieu | Dem | Yes | 7.43% | Rep 03 | John Breaux (D) |
13 | Maine | Susan Collins | Rep | Yes | - 5.12% | Indep 02 | Olympia Snowe (R) |
14 | Massachusetts | John Kerry | Dem | -27.30% | |||
15 | Michigan | Carl Levin | Dem | -5.14% | |||
16 | Minnesota | Paul Wellstone | Dem | Close | -2.41% | Indep 02 | Mark Dayton (D) |
17 | Mississippi | Thad Cochran | Rep | 16.92% | |||
18 | Missouri | Jean Carnahan | Dem | Yes | 3.34% | Dem 04 | Christopher Bond (R) |
19 | Montana | Max Baucus | Dem | Yes | 25.08% | Rep 04 | Conrad Burns (R) |
20 | Nebraska | Chuck Hagel | Rep | 29.00% | |||
21 | New Hampshire | Bob Smith | Rep | Close | 1.27% | Dem 02 | Judd Greg (R) |
22 | New Jersey | Robert Torricelli | Dem | -15.84% | |||
23 | New Mexico | Pete Domenici | Rep | Yes | - .06% | Rep 02 | Jeff Bingamen (D) |
24 | North Carolina | Jesse Helms | Rep | 12.83% | |||
25 | Oklahoma | James Inhofe | Rep | 21.88% | |||
26 | Oregon | Gordon Smith | Rep | Yes | - 0.44% | Dem 02 | Ron Wyden (D) |
27 | Rhode Island | Jack Reed | Dem | -29.08% | |||
28 | South Carolina | Strom Thurmond | Rep | 15.94% | |||
29 | South Dakota | Tim Johnson | Dem | Yes | 22.74% | Rep 02 | Tom Daschole (D) |
30 | Tennessee | Fred Thompson | Rep | Close | 3.87% | Rep 02 | William Frist (R) |
31 | Texas | Phil Gramm | Rep | 21.32% | |||
32 | Virginia | John Warner | Rep | 8.03% | |||
33 | West Virginia | Jay Rockefeller | Dem | Yes | 6.33% | Dem 04 | Robert Byrd (D) |
How in the world South Dakota can give Geo Bush a 23% margin and still vote in two RAT senators is beyond any reasonable logic.
For the Senate vote to select the leader, having a RINO is hands down better than a RAT.
Carnahan will suffer from the Mosely Braun syndrome and be tossed out, and Johnson & Landrieu share the same predicament as Cleland. I don't see Baucus losing, he's been there a long time and has support in the eastern half of the state. Likewise, I don't see Domenici falling, either, for the same reasons. This can turn out well, but the base cannot be slacking off on election day for yet another election.
As a Missourian I hope and pray that you are right, If I am correct, I think Jim Talent is running against the widdow Carnahan.
She has been keeping a low profile since the election, except for the one vote "against" John Ashcroft for Atty. Gen. Whom she beat out for the Senate seat by virtue of the pitty-vote generated for the week-old corpse Mr.C. I still am Fumming over the shennanigins pulled by the Dems in STL on election eve to keep the poles open longer to perpetuate more voter fraud, I am convinced had this not happened John would have won that seat, but in hindsight God may have been at work?
ftm
Louisiana still hasn't gotten a strong Republican candidate to challenge Landrieu as far as I can tell...
I dunno.... sometimes it's better for satan to be ugly - - he's easier to recognize that way.
RINOs (like Jeffords was) turn my stomach more than nearly any rat, except maybe for pukes like Leahy and Boxer.
I think Collins is liberal enough to be safe.
Maine is such a pretty state, too. I wonder, where do all the liberal parasite Democrats come from?
If the RINO intends on getting any Republican money, backing, support or committee positions, the senator MUST vote the party for Senate leader. This is the only reason a RINO beats a RAT, but it is a big one.
Jeffords felt he had to renounce his Republicanship so he could remove his vote for the Republican Senate leader candidate.
He would skewer liberals into a nice shish-kebob. Those are made out of sheep aren't they?
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