Posted on 11/16/2001 1:19:55 PM PST by Axion
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Omar: Desperate Bluff or Credible Threat? Summary Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar has threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time." Omar's threat is meant to rally his allies and fighters by showing that, despite claims to the contrary, the Taliban and al Qaeda are not defeated. Although al Qaeda's operational capabilities in the United States remain in question, if they have any ability to strike again, they will -- and soon. Analysis Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time" during an interview with the BBC's Pushtu service Nov. 15. Omar said the situation in Afghanistan "is related to a bigger cause -- that is the destruction of America" and warned "the plan is going ahead" and is being "implemented." Omar's threats raise a question: Are these simply the defiant words of a defeated foe or is there credibility to the warning? His prediction of the imminent destruction of the United States is at its core a message to his allies and fighters that, despite claims to the contrary, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda are defeated. To avoid losing all legitimacy or control, Omar and terrorism suspect Osama bin Laden must strike back at the United States -- and soon. The territorial gains by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan during the past week have raised serious questions about the Taliban's remaining capabilities. Although it appears that the core Taliban and al Qaeda fighters are preparing for guerrilla warfare -- their preferred style of fighting -- the rapid withdrawal has likely left many fighters and supporters questioning the leadership of Omar and bin Laden. The ability of the Taliban and al Qaeda to remain at the core of a militant Islamist struggle against Washington now rests on their ability to demonstrate continued effectiveness. Assuming Omar's message is more than just a final gasp, one must assess the ultimate purpose of his comments. In part, they are a rallying cry to forces and supporters inside Afghanistan. In the BBC interview, Omar dismisses the Taliban retreat as insubstantial. He points out that territorial gains and losses in Afghanistan are regular occurrences and that the tide can change again as swiftly as before. Instead, he repeatedly calls the withdrawal part of the "screening" of the Taliban: the removal of forces that are not loyal and the cleansing of the "sins" of the others. He also says there will be no compromise between the Taliban and any coalition government in Kabul, bluntly stating that the Taliban "prefer death" to being "part of an evil government." This is a clear message to all Afghans that cooperation with the Northern Alliance or the United Nations is unacceptable. The message is also directed at supporters and fighters outside Afghanistan, pointing them toward what Omar views as the higher calling of annihilating the Great Satan. Omar reiterates several times that every action in Afghanistan is part of a larger goal: "the extinction of America." This only adds impetus to the need for a new attack on the United States lest Omar, the Taliban and al Qaeda prove all bluster. A new strike would send a clear message to Washington as well: The tactical victory in Afghanistan was a useless diversion because the real war is not being fought there, but on U.S. soil. It is unclear whether al Qaeda and the Taliban expended all of their U.S.-based resources in the Sept. 11 attacks or, if not, whether anti-terrorism efforts have seriously hindered their ability to act. The planning that went into the Sept. 11 attacks, however, strongly suggests that terrorist cells are already established inside the United States and may simply be awaiting instructions to strike. Both to ensure loyalty and to demonstrate to the U.S. government that the battle in Afghanistan has little bearing on the greater war, the Taliban and al Qaeda will use any means in their power to strike a high-profile blow against targets on American soil. Failing this, there is little they can do to remain legitimate in their global fight against the United States. |
Oh, great. In addition to anthrax, smallpox, and nukes, he has a stockpile of Joker venom.
No................panic never helped anybody.
.........and what they believe in is the complete destruction of those who deviate from their view of what the world should be......
We can debate all we want to about whether they can accomplish their goals............they have a certain intent.
The intent is possible; the means aren't very far from their grasp.
Inside the Fuerherbunker, just before the end:
Hitler: Report! Luftwaffe status?
Luftwaffe General: We still have a few boxes of spare parts and a Great War bi-plane from the Berlin Museum.
Hitler: Wehrmacht status?
Wehrmacht General: I've been able to raise a militia platoon consisting of a few dozen elderly men and 14-year-old boys.
Hitler: Naval assets?
Navy Admiral: We have a half-dozen sailors in a rowboat and a sailboat on the River Spree.
Hitler: [Pauses to consider these reports, then slowly smiles] All right! NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!!
Anybody who isn't on super-duper triple extra alert must live in a very nice place.
Right, the "Volksturm".....
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Mullah Omar wants to convey a feeling that this one is different than WWII for instance.........that our soil will not be immune from attack.
Of course not...........there are plenty here. Expect more.
Should we be worried? We should always be worried about Islam, which throughout its 1400 years of existence has shown itself to be little more than organized brigandage, extortion and terror (apologies to the gentle Sufis, hated by Islamics). But I really don't think there's a plan in place or the power to carry one out.
That said, I think there probably will be more attacks, but probably lone-wolf operations. Although after I read today that the White House is celebrating the opening of Ramadan, I wasn't even sure terrorism was necessary. Just hand them the keys to the city, why don't we. Mny other states have done so over the last 1,400 years.
This may not be just a threat. It may be a recounting of an actual plan he has heard of--in a moment of lack of control because he is under terrible pressure, he spits this out.
I have always assumed that Ussama had some kind of end game in mind other than just sitting there and letting us shoot him up. I think he miscalculated the speed with which our efforts combined with the Northern Alliance could take over Afghanistan. However he clearly foresaw most of our general stratigy before he hit us on 9-11.
I assume that before he started the evening of 9-10, he had a scheme he thought would bring us down.
The actual number of Islams here in the US is somewhere between 3.5 and 7 million. They poll 70% thinking that although taking down the towers was not a directly reasonable remedy, the US is really responsible because of its bad conduct--its our own fault. So if you start with a number like 5 million Islams; 70% or 3.5 million thinking we have nobody but ourselves to blame--you take the polls from these islam schools of the kids through 19 being over 90% in support of ussama; it is not unreasonable to believe that 15% of these guys or around 750,000 would support attacks on US soil.
If ussama has an army of 750,000 in North America, they can do us a lot of damage with a sound plan and good tactical execution. I am concerned and think we should dig into the domestic group to find out what people know.
It's simple:
Bin Laden knows that modernization is destroying the life he espouses.
He must have hoped 911 would have initiated a cycle of violence that would have so spiraled out of control the civilized world would have been consumed in a worldwide apocalypse--thus preparing the way for his stoneage culture to flourish among the ruins.
But history has shown that nutjobs like Bin Laden possess an overly inflated opinion of their own ability to influence events on such a grand scale.
If his mother had spanked him, probably none of this would have happened.
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