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Omar: Desperate Bluff or Credible Threat?
STRATFOR ^ | 2130 GMT, 011115 | Staff

Posted on 11/16/2001 1:19:55 PM PST by Axion

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To: clamper1797
reslove = resolve
41 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:33 PM PST by clamper1797
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To: He Rides A White Horse
Wouldn't you think that if our government looked at this as a credible threat, Ashcroft and all would be all over the place giving us warnings to be on super-duper triple extra alert again?
42 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:33 PM PST by lilsparky
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To: Redcloak
Perhaps his plan is to cause us all to die laughing.

Oh, great. In addition to anthrax, smallpox, and nukes, he has a stockpile of Joker venom.

43 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by steve-b
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To: lilsparky
Wouldn't you think that if our government looked at this as a credible threat, Ashcroft and all would be all over the place giving us warnings to be on super-duper triple extra alert again?

No................panic never helped anybody.

44 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: steve-b
PS -- To the editor of Debka: When you cite Message #43 as a "military source," I expect a 10% royalty.
45 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by steve-b
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To: He Rides A White Horse
I agree with you totally. We just do what we have to do and do it brutally and quickly and without mercy no matter what omar or osama says. Threats should just stiffen our resolve. Just like with any garden variety bully.
46 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by cajungirl
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To: kaylar
I think these guys actually believe their own propaganda about the weakness and decadence of the West in general and the United States in particular. They thought that if they killed a large number of civilians we'd be afraid to cross them for fear that they'd do it again.
47 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:34 PM PST by steve-b
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To: cajungirl
Osama and Omar say what they believe

.........and what they believe in is the complete destruction of those who deviate from their view of what the world should be......

We can debate all we want to about whether they can accomplish their goals............they have a certain intent.

The intent is possible; the means aren't very far from their grasp.

48 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:35 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: Dog Gone
Reminds me of a joke I heard --
Inside the Fuerherbunker, just before the end:
Hitler: Report! Luftwaffe status?
Luftwaffe General: We still have a few boxes of spare parts and a Great War bi-plane from the Berlin Museum.
Hitler: Wehrmacht status?
Wehrmacht General: I've been able to raise a militia platoon consisting of a few dozen elderly men and 14-year-old boys.
Hitler: Naval assets?
Navy Admiral: We have a half-dozen sailors in a rowboat and a sailboat on the River Spree.
Hitler: [Pauses to consider these reports, then slowly smiles] All right! NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!!

49 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:36 PM PST by steve-b
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To: lilsparky
Ashcroft and all would be all over the place giving us warnings to be on super-duper triple extra alert again?

Anybody who isn't on super-duper triple extra alert must live in a very nice place.

50 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:36 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: steve-b
Wehrmacht General: I've been able to raise a militia platoon consisting of a few dozen elderly men and 14-year-old boys.

Right, the "Volksturm".....

51 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:38 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: He Rides A White Horse
He also says there will be no compromise between the Taliban and any coalition government in Kabul, bluntly stating that the Taliban "prefer death"

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

52 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:49 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: He Rides A White Horse
A new strike would send a clear message to Washington as well: The tactical victory in Afghanistan was a useless diversion because the real war is not being fought there, but on U.S. soil.

Mullah Omar wants to convey a feeling that this one is different than WWII for instance.........that our soil will not be immune from attack.

53 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:49 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: Axion
It is unclear whether al Qaeda and the Taliban expended all of their U.S.-based resources in the Sept. 11 attacks

Of course not...........there are plenty here. Expect more.

54 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:50 PM PST by He Rides A White Horse
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To: He Rides A White Horse
That's true, but I think he's a crazy old man and that he and the rest of his buds have by now noticed that the US press breathlessly reports every stupid thing they say.

Should we be worried? We should always be worried about Islam, which throughout its 1400 years of existence has shown itself to be little more than organized brigandage, extortion and terror (apologies to the gentle Sufis, hated by Islamics). But I really don't think there's a plan in place or the power to carry one out.

That said, I think there probably will be more attacks, but probably lone-wolf operations. Although after I read today that the White House is celebrating the opening of Ramadan, I wasn't even sure terrorism was necessary. Just hand them the keys to the city, why don't we. Mny other states have done so over the last 1,400 years.

55 posted on 11/16/2001 1:20:51 PM PST by livius
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To: Axion
It is all very well to denigrate Omar and Ussama. I am uncomfortable doing so.

This may not be just a threat. It may be a recounting of an actual plan he has heard of--in a moment of lack of control because he is under terrible pressure, he spits this out.

I have always assumed that Ussama had some kind of end game in mind other than just sitting there and letting us shoot him up. I think he miscalculated the speed with which our efforts combined with the Northern Alliance could take over Afghanistan. However he clearly foresaw most of our general stratigy before he hit us on 9-11.

I assume that before he started the evening of 9-10, he had a scheme he thought would bring us down.

The actual number of Islams here in the US is somewhere between 3.5 and 7 million. They poll 70% thinking that although taking down the towers was not a directly reasonable remedy, the US is really responsible because of its bad conduct--its our own fault. So if you start with a number like 5 million Islams; 70% or 3.5 million thinking we have nobody but ourselves to blame--you take the polls from these islam schools of the kids through 19 being over 90% in support of ussama; it is not unreasonable to believe that 15% of these guys or around 750,000 would support attacks on US soil.

If ussama has an army of 750,000 in North America, they can do us a lot of damage with a sound plan and good tactical execution. I am concerned and think we should dig into the domestic group to find out what people know.

56 posted on 11/16/2001 1:21:01 PM PST by David
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To: David
750,000 camel jockeys willing to meet Allah is something to think about. Then again, the number of firearms sold since SEP 11, added to the existing private stockpile, is nothing to sneeze at either. Let them start it, we'll finish it--And my guess is the casualties will exceed 750,000 by a large margin.
57 posted on 11/16/2001 1:21:03 PM PST by Arm_Bears
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To: David
I have always assumed that Ussama had some kind of end game in mind other than just sitting there and letting us shoot him up.

It's simple:

Bin Laden knows that modernization is destroying the life he espouses.

He must have hoped 911 would have initiated a cycle of violence that would have so spiraled out of control the civilized world would have been consumed in a worldwide apocalypse--thus preparing the way for his stoneage culture to flourish among the ruins.

But history has shown that nutjobs like Bin Laden possess an overly inflated opinion of their own ability to influence events on such a grand scale.

If his mother had spanked him, probably none of this would have happened.

58 posted on 11/16/2001 1:21:20 PM PST by Age of Reason
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