Posted on 11/05/2001 7:29:40 AM PST by Wild Game
Does the enemy have the virus and will we see it crop up? Or is the (smarter than anyone else) media just going crazy and and hoping for an outbreak? It was the media that kept reporting the dreaded anthrax and bingo, here it is. Is the enemy getting ideas from the press? What do you think Freepers? Smallpox can kill 30% of those infected, would the enemy use such an uncertain weapon?
That is a direct contradiction of what WHO, and CDC were saying as recently as Dec. 1999. - - They said NO CASES.
"The Soviets had access to it earlier than we did."
Really? - The Soviet union existed in the 16th century? (Jamestown, Va.) :-)
Be careful, the Ostrich Club will accuse you of buying tinfoil futures :-)
Now, perhaps you should investigate the fact that if the vaccine is given within 4 days after exposure to smallpox, it can lessen the severity of illness or even prevent it. Dramatically reducing the 30% fatality calculations.
In addition, patients with smallpox can benefit from supportive therapy (e.g., intravenous fluids, medicine to control fever or pain) and antibiotics for any secondary bacterial infections that may occur. Such therapies also compromise the 30% fatality calculation.
My point is simple. Vaccination of the US population without a single case of smallpox would kill more that five times the number of deaths that occured on 9-11. Even if smallpox was weaponized and dispursed on a small population, epidemic status is the material of fiction writers and resembles nothing of what the medical resources of the USA could deploy to contain such an attack. Games such as "Dark Winter" are informative and useful. But to protract that such senarios would actually happen in real life to the calculations of the game makers is sensational and not responsible.
What concerns me is with his sick twisted mind, if he knew his time was up he would most likely want to go out as a martyr, the he#@ with his people (in his mind they too would be dying as martyrs) and the world if they die. I dont' know if it's true but they say he has a serious kidney disease, do you think he would prefer to die from natural causes or his martyrdom? Scary, scary thoughts. God help us.
Games such as "Dark Winter" are informative and useful for exactlly the reasons you stated. But to protract that such senarios would actually happen in real life to the calculations of the game makers is sensational and not responsible. There is no irresponsibility in creating such game situations, only sensational irresponsibility to protract that real life could equal the senarios or better them.
Yes I tend to agree , and that is what is so scary !!
Yes. There was an outbreak in Yugoslavia in the early 70's and the man who brought ti to Yugoslavia was vaccinated and never got smallpox...he got a little sick and extremely contagious...that outbreak acause a quarantine of Yugoslavia and the immunization of the entire population. Something the US is not prepared to do.
...ON February 15,1972, a thirty-eight-year-old Muslim clergyman returned to his home town of Damnjane, in Kosovo, Yugoslavia, after he'd been on a pilgrimage to Mecca, stopping at holy sites in Iraq. I will call him the Pilgrim. A photograph of the Pilgrim shows a man who looks well educated, has an intelligent face, and is wearing a clipped mustache and a beret. He had travelled by bus for his entire journey. The morning after his return home, he woke up feeling achy. At first, he thought he was tired from the long bus ride, but then he realized that he had caught a bug. He shivered for a day or two, and developed a red rash brought on by his fever, but quickly recovered. He had been vaccinated for smallpox two months earlier. Indeed, the Yugoslav medical authorities had been vaccinating the population of Yugoslavia relentlessly for more than fifty years, and the country was considered to be thoroughly immunized. The last case of smallpox in Yugoslavia had occurred in 1930.
The Pilgrim's family members and friends came to visit him. They wanted to hear about his trip, and he enjoyed telling them about it. Meanwhile, variola particles were leaking out of raw spots in the back of his throat and mixing with his saliva. When he spoke, tiny droplets of saliva, too small to be seen, drifted around him in a droplet cloud. If the person is throwing off a lethal virus, the cloud becomes a hot zone that can extend ten feet in all directions. Although the raw spots in the Pilgrim's throat amounted to a tiny surface of virus emission, smaller than a postage stamp, in a biological sense it was as hot as the surface of the sun, and it put enough smallpox into the air to paralyze Yugoslavia.
Variola particles are built to survive in the air. They are rounded-off rectangles that have a knobby, patterned surface-a gnarly hand-grenade look. Some experts call the particles bricks. The whole brick is made of a hundred different proteins, assembled and interlocked in a three-dimensional puzzle, which nobody has ever figured out. Virus experts feel that the structure of a smallpox particle is almost breathtakingly beautiful and deeply mathematical-one of the unexplored wonders of the viral universe. The structure protects the virus's genetic material: a long strand of DNA coiled in the center of the brick.
Pox bricks are the largest viruses. If a smallpox brick were the size of a real brick then a cold-virus particle would be a blueberry sitting on the brick. But smallpox particles are still extremely small; about three million smallpox bricks laid down in rows would pave the period at the end of this sentence. A smallpox victim emits several bricks in each invisible droplet of saliva that spews into the air when the person speaks or coughs. When an airborne smallpox particle lands on a mucus membrane in someone's throat or lung, it sticks. It enters a cell and begins to make copies of itself. For one to three weeks, the virus spreads from cell to cell, amplifying silently in the body. No one has discovered exactly where the virus z hides during its incubation phase. Probably it gets into the lymph cells, confusing the immune system, and victims are said to experience terrible dreams.
On February 21st, when the Pilgrim had been feeling achy for almost a week, a thirty-year-old man, a schoolteacher, who is known to experts as Ljatif M., arrived in Djakovica, a few miles from the Pilgrim's town, to enroll in the Higher Institute of Education. Doctors who later investigated the schoolteacher's case never found out how he had come in contact with the Pilgrim. One of them must have ended up in the other's town. Possibly they stood next to each other in a shop-something like that.
On March 3rd, Ljatif developed a fever. Two days later, he went to a local medical center, where doctors gave him penicillin for his fever. Antibiotics have no effect on a virus. Then his skin broke with dark spots, and he may have developed a worried face. He felt worse, and a few days later his brother took him by bus to a hospital in the town of Cacak, about a hundred miles away. The dark spots were by this time merging into blackened, mottled splashes, which the doctors in Cacak didn't recognize. Ljatif became sicker. Finally, he was transferred by ambulance to Belgrade, where he was admitted to the Dermatology and Venereal Diseases Department of the city's main hospital. By then, his skin may have turned almost black in patches. We don't have access to his clinical reports, so I am describing a generalized extreme smallpox of the kind Ljatif had.
Inside the cells of the host, smallpox bricks pile up as if they were coming off a production line. Some of the particles develop tails. The tails are pieces of the cell's protein, which the virus steals from the cell for its own use. The tailed smallpox particles look like comets or spermatozoa. They begin to twist and wriggle, and they corkscrew through the cell, propelled by their tails toward the cell's outer membrane. You can see them with a microscope, thrashing with the same furious drive as sperm. They bump up against the inside of the cell membrane, and their heads make lumps, and the cell horripilates. Then something wonderful happens. Finger tubes begin to extend from the cell. The tubes grow longer. The cell turns into a Koosh ball. Inside each finger tube is a smallpox comet. The fingers lengthen until they touch and join nearby cells, and the smallpox comets squirm through the finger tubes into the next cell. The comets are protected from attack by the immune system, because they stay inside the finger tubes, where antibodies and killer white blood cells can't reach them. Then the Koosh ball explodes. Out pour heaps of bricks that don't have tails. These smallpox particles are wrapped in a special armor, like hand grenades. They float away, still protected by their armor, and they stick to other cells and go inside them, and those cells turn into Koosh balls. Each infected cell releases up to a hundred thousand virus particles, and they are added to the quadrillions of particles replicating in the universe of the ruined host.
Ljatif's skin had become blackened, mottled, and silky to the touch, and sheets of small blood blisters may have peppered his face. In a case of black pox, variola shocks the immune system so that it can't produce pus. Small blood vessels were leaking and breaking in his skin, and blood was seeping under the surface. His skin had developed large areas of continuous bruises.
On March 9th, the Belgrade doctors showed Ljatif to students and staff as a case that demonstrated an unusual reaction to penicillin. (In fact, a very bad reaction to penicillin can look like this.) Ljatif's eyes may have turned dark red. In hemorrhagic smallpox, one or two large hemorrhages appear in each eye, in the white encircling the iris, making the eyes look as if they could sag or leak blood. The eyes never do leak, but the blood in the eyes darkens, until the whites can sometimes seem almost black.
During the day of March 10th, Ljatif suffered catastrophic hemorrhages into the intestines. His intestines filled up with blood, and he expelled quarts of it, staining the sheets black, and he developed grave anemia from blood loss. For some unknown reason, black-pox patients remain conscious, in a kind of paralyzed shock, and they seem acutely aware of what is happening nearly up to the point of death -- "a peculiar state of apprehension and mental alertness that were said to be unlike the manifestations of any other infectious disease," in the words of the Big Red Book of Smallpox. We can imagine that Ljatif was extremely frightened and witnessed his hemorrhages with a sense that his insides were coming apart. During the final phase of a smallpox intestinal bleedout, the lining of the intestines or the rectum can slip off. The lining is expelled through the anus, coming out in pieces or in lengths of tube. This bloody tissue is known as a tubular cast. When a smallpox patient throws a tubular cast, death is imminent. Al1 we know about Ljatif is that his bleeds were unstoppable, that he was rushed to the Surgical Clinic of the Belgrade hospital, and that he died in the evening. The duty physician listed the cause of death as a bad reaction to penicillin.
"These hemorrhagic smallpox cases put an incredible amount of virus into the air," D. A. Henderson said. Some of the doctors and nurses who treated Ljatif were doomed. Indeed, Ljatif had seeded smallpox across Yugoslavia. Investigators later found that while he was in the hospital in Cacak he infected eight other patients and a nurse. The nurse died. One of the patients was a schoolboy, and he was sent home, where he broke with smallpox and infected his mother, and she died. In the Belgrade hospital, Ljatif infected twenty-seven more people, including seven nurses and doctors. Those victims infected five more people. Ljatif directly infected a total of thirty-eight people. They caught the virus by breathing the air near him. Eight of them died.
Meanwhile, the Pilgrim's smallpox travelled in waves through Yugoslavia. A rising tide of smallpox typically comes in fourteen-day waves -- a wave of cases, a lull down to zero, and then a much bigger wave, another lull down to zero, then a huge and terrifying wave. The waves reflect the incubation periods, or generations, of the virus. Each wave or generation is anywhere from ten to twenty times as large as the last, so the virus grows exponentially and explosively, gathering strength like some kind of biological tsunami. This is because each infected person infects an average of ten to twenty more people. By the end of March, 1972, more than a hundred and fifty cases had occurred.
The Pilgrim had long since recovered. He didn't even know that he had started the outbreak. By then, however, Yugoslav doctors knew that they were dealing with smallpox, and they sent an urgent cable to the World Health Organization, asking for help.
Luckily, Yugoslavia had an authoritarian Communist government, under Josip Broz Tito, and he exercised full emergency powers. His government mobilized the Army and imposed strong measures to stop people from travelling and spreading the virus. Villages were closed by the Army, roadblocks were thrown up, public meetings were prohibited, and hotels and apartment buildings were made into quarantine wards to hold people who had had contact with smallpox cases. Ten thousand people were locked up in these buildings by the Yugoslav military. The daily life of the country came to a shocked halt. At the same time, all the countries surrounding Yugoslavia closed their borders with it, to prevent any travellers from coming out. Yugoslavia was cut off from the world. There were twenty-five foci of smallpox in the country. The virus had leapfrogged from town to town, even though the population had been heavily vaccinated. The Yugoslav authorities, helped by the W.H.O., began a massive campaign to revaccinate every person in Yugoslavia against smallpox; the population was twenty-one million. "They gave eighteen million doses in ten days," D. A. Henderson said. A person's immunity begins to grow immediately after the vaccination; it takes full effect within a week.
At the beginning of April, Henderson flew to Belgrade, where he found government officials in a state of deep alarm. The officials expected to see thousands of blistered, dying, contagious people streaming into hospitals any day. Henderson sat down with the Minister of Health and examined the statistics. He plotted the cases on a time line, and now he could see the generations of smallpox -- one, two, three waves, each far larger than the previous one. Henderson had seen such waves appear many times before as smallpox rippled and amplified through human populations. Reading the viral surf with a practiced eye, he could see the start of the fourth wave. It was not climbing as steeply as he had expected. This meant that the waves had peaked. The outbreak was declining. Because of the military roadblocks, people weren't travelling, and the government was vaccinating everyone as fast as possible. "The outbreak is near an end," he declared to the Minister of Health. "I don't think you'll have more than ten additional cases." There were about a dozen: Henderson was right -- the fourth wave never really materialized. The outbreak had been started by one man with the shivers. It was ended by a military crackdown and vaccination for every citizen.
AT the present time, the United States' national stockpile of smallpox vaccine is a collection of four cardboard boxes that sit on a single pallet behind a chain-link fence inside a walk-in freezer in a warehouse in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, near the Susquehanna River, at a facility owned by Wyeth-Ayerst Laboratories. The vaccine is slowly deteriorating. The Food and Drug Administration has put a hold on the smallpox vaccine, and right now no one can use it -- not even emergency personnel or key government leaders. Click here for the article
They also quote 2 Russian's that were high up in the bio-warfare section prior to 1990 and they both recommend that we vaccinate all Americans and Russians due to the risk. These are the boys that genetically altered the virus, so they know what they are talking about. Their fear is that the scientists in Russia are capable of stealing it, might,et. They only make about $75.00/month so they could be bought quite easily.
Heres the link to check out...Warning of smallpox terror risk
In a technical sense it was true that the exiting 184 year-old (in 1980) vaccine did have too high risk of complications given the lack of smallpox in the wild. There are complications including encephalitis, and even death. Although these occur at low levels, innoculating everyone in a population in order to protect against an extinct disease will produce a number of injured people. The solution should be to develop new vaccines that are safer than the existing live vaccina vaccine. The technology for vaccines has improved greatly since 1796 when Jenner introduced vaccination.
An example of the tradeoffs between risks and benefits of different vaccines for one disease are the two vaccines for polio. The first vaccine (1955) was the killed Salk vaccine. The second (1961) was attenuated live Sabin vaccine. There was a vicious academic debate about which vaccine is safer or effective. It is often said that academic politics are viscious because the stakes are so low but in this case, the stakes were extremely high. Theoretically the killed vaccine should not cause the disease, but an early batch made by a licensee who did not completely follow Dr. Salk's protocol for killing the virus, caused an outbreak. The Sabin vaccine was tested in Africa with the assistance of the Soviet Union. There were some serious questions about the methodology of the study. The Soviets did not count any case of polio contracted less than 14 days after receiving the vaccine as being caused by the vaccine. Dr. Sabin was awarded the Nobel prize for medicine, but Dr. Salk did not share in it.
It was believed that the live oral vaccine is more effective in creating a life long immunity to polio. It is cheaper to manufacture, acts faster, and also has the ability to secondarily innoculate others who may come into contact with feces or water cominated by the feces of the recipient. Because of the ability to spread the effect of the vaccine beyond the person being inoculated, it was believed to be better for stopping outbreaks especially in less developed countries. The major problem is that about once in every 2.4 million cases the virus reverts back to pathogenic form and causes polio in the recipient. It also can cause the disease in others who may come in contact with the feces of the recipient. The last case of wild polio in the US occurred in 1979. After the 1980s almost every case of polio in the US was caused by the live vaccine; the others were aquired outside the US. There were several lawsuits in the 1980s and the protocols were changed so that the first two doses would be the inactivated or killed vaccine followed by two doses of the live vaccine.
The CDC's website says that the new protocol for 2000 is for four doses of an improved inactivated vaccine. The purpose of of this protocol is to totally eliminate the possibility of vaccine-caused polio. This is especially important since the wild virus does not exist in this country! The WHO is now in the process of eradicating polio from the world!
There are two major points I want to make about this digression about polio. First the safety of a vaccine for an extinct disease or at least extinct in this country has to be much higher than for a disease that is endemic or epidemic. Second, if a disease is eradicated in the wild, there is absolutely no way to verify that there are no undocumented samples of that disease in a laboratory. If we stop vaccinating, then future generations will become vulnerable to the use of polio as a biolgical weapon. I doubt very seriously after this scare about smallpox that citizens of the US would let the WHO and CDC stop the manufacture of polio vaccine when polio is eradicated in the wild. The WHO hopes to eradicate other diseases such as measles. This is a great thing for humanity, but we should never again make our population vulnerable to extinct diseases that could be used as biological weapons. We need to have research into producing vaccines that are much safer than the currently availabe ones for diseases that are targeted for extinction. This way we can justify vaccinating almost all the population against these diseases. If the overwhelming majority of people in this country and other highly developed countries were immune to smallpox, there would be no incentive for terrorists to use it.
The use of the term "tinfoil" which is always indicative of a lack of facts upon which to base an argument, clearly marks one as a member of the Ostrich Club.
Make no mistake mister, a member of the Ostrich club I am not.
But from the UN ? I was commenting on the unlikelyhood that it was the UN and not a terrorists... not the impossiblity of it.
ALARMIST BS. An epidemic; yes. End-of-world...NO.
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