Posted on 03/09/2026 5:55:48 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...
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Those are pretty good odds, IMHO.
a lot depends on the definition of “fall”, as in “we surrender” or “the people rise up and slaughter all of their evil overlords and establish a new government” ...
and then of course anything like that assumes that the bombing campaign will be wound up by that date as well ...
personally, i don’t think any of the above will happen by 3/31 ...
furthermore, even when the ally’s bombing campaign ends, i believe there will some sort of rump group of IRGC/mullahs remaining in charge for a while, and it could take a long time before that rump eventually disintegrates and/or is overthrown ...
Beware the Ides of March. The regime is probably not up on their Shakespeare.
Why is March 31 so important? How do you define the regime falling? They’re even crazier than the Japanese.
I understand Gaza is not being rebuilt...why? because Hamas refuses to lay down their arms. Iranian mullahs = Hamas. I think it will take longer than March 31st.
Not a gambling bet but what if the Khemani junior idiot steps on a banana peel on Friday, March 13th and a piano being moved between buildings slips and falls on him.
Search for the new Iranian honcho will end the day after the midterms.
“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
I personally don’t think it will happen by Mar 31, either, but roughly 17:1 odds?
I might just bet a 20 on that. $340 payoff...
“Why is March 31 so important? How do you define the regime falling?”
#####################
1) Because that’s the bet
2) Read the OP as to the definition.
The March equinox is the traditional Iranian New Year (Naw-Ruz). It is a major holiday. So I hope they can celebrate the new year as a free nation.
Sorry too busy.
The banana trade has been suspended to Iran.
I’ll take “when are the Ides of March ?” for 100 Alex ...
What does the other side of the bet pay
polymarket is blocked to the US though :-(
Lololololol
Mar 31, of the year 2030? Maybe
Persia has been war fighting for 10,000 years, they won’t quit fighting.
You ready for a million man boots on the ground war?
“polymarket is blocked to the US though :-(”
Now back.
“Lololololol1
Mar 31, of the year 2030? Maybe
Persia has been war fighting for 10,000 years, they won’t quit fighting.”
Lololololol! They are still fighting?
Those are crazy odds. I think the regime will fall by this Friday. Is this site legal for US citizens to use?
My money is on Rubio being Supreme Leader by March 31.
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