Posted on 01/06/2026 9:57:35 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Iran? Russia? China? Senate Dems? The Maduros themselves? (Naah. Too obvious.)
Iran certainly qualifies for the medal round here. The loss of their footprint in Venezuela would disrupt one of the regime's last sources of hard currency via its proxy in Hezbollah, not to mention their ability to influence and terrorize the Western Hemisphere. However, the loss of that link would not in itself become an existential issue for the regime, even though it certainly contributes to its current existential crises. The biggest loser actually exists much closer to home, according to the Wall Street Journal:
The capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro—one of the Cuban intelligence services’ most valuable charges—punctured its aura of invincibility. U.S. elite forces descended on Maduro’s compound at around 2 a.m. local time Saturday, grabbing him and his wife before they could escape to a safe room, said Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The Cuban government said 32 officers from its Revolutionary Armed Forces and the Interior Ministry, which runs intelligence services, were killed in the line of duty as part of Maduro’s security detail.
“It’s a defeat for Cuba and denotes its weakening, highlighting vulnerabilities in its security procedures,” said María Werlau, author of “Cuba’s Intervention in Venezuela,” a book published in 2019.
No kidding. Cuba's forces lost nearly three dozen elite security forces without inflicting a single casualty – while defending a fortress? That either demonstrates a nearly superhuman capability in American forces, or complete incompetence within Cuba's armed forces. Havana didn't send flunkies to secure Maduro, after all; his oil keeps Cuba's communist regime in business. As Donald Trump ramped up the pressure on Maduro, Havana had to have fortified its security preparations around its most important financial provider.
And they not only failed in the mission, but apparently couldn't even inflict a single casualty as the Americans plucked the Maduros out of the center of their defensive position. That is an impressive level of failure. And this kind of failure has consequences for a tyrannical regime coasting on the folk legends of its revolutionary leader, one that goes beyond the financial implications of a de facto oil embargo.
The Washington Post details those challenges in its own report today, tacitly agreeing with the WSJ's assessment of Cuba being the biggest loser in this operation:
Aside from an economic uptick during the Obama administration, when the resumption of diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana led to increased tourism and slender openings for private ownership and outside investment, the Cuban economy has never really recovered from the Soviet fall.
The nation has been on a steady slide into economic chaos for years, owing to U.S. sanctions and what even many of its supporters see as mismanagement by a sclerotic Cuban Communist Party.
Some chose to see opportunity in the darkness following Maduro’s ouster. Carlos Alzugaray, a retired career Cuban diplomat reached by phone at his Havana home, said, “There is of course an increase of the threat, a very bad thing.”
But it was possible, he said, that Cuba’s allies in Russia and elsewhere would help, “and just maybe the government will … open up the economy and do what the economists have been telling them for a long time and they have refused to do.”
Russia is not in a position to help anyone at the moment. Vladimir Putin has set Russia's reserves on fire to fund his war in Ukraine, and he relied on the black-market oil revenues facilitated by the same network Maduro used to backstop the Russian economy. Havana might have some luck with China, but cash alone won't solve this crisis now. The humiliation of the Maduro operation has opened another vulnerability for the regime, as the WSJ notes:
For a tiny and impoverished island of about 10 million people, Cuba’s security and intelligence structure is enormous—with about 100,000 officers, said García, the former Cuban intelligence agent.
“They have a presence in workplaces, schools, movie theaters and informants on every street block,” he said. “Fidel Castro’s security detail had 10,000 officers and its own counterintelligence unit.”
Cuba’s security apparatus has been effective at suffocating unrest in Cuba and Venezuela.
They have been effective, mainly due to their reputation. This kind of humiliation will create new incentives and pressures on the security apparatuses in Cuba as the people absorb the lessons of this failure. When the oil and the credibility run out, the regime will either have to ratchet up the oppression to the point of provoking a rebellion, or shift to reforms that will eventually lead to the kind of dissipation the Soviets experienced through glasnost and perestroika.
Don't expect this to happen tomorrow, or next week, or next month. Without oil, though, the lights will go out in Havana in more than one sense sooner or later. Have patience, and keep up the pressure.
Another good read! Thanks!
This is why Rubio said Cuba is in big trouble.
This is a ‘deep dive’ article that is a good read and a lot of help in understanding what Cuba now has to lose, in the wake of Maduro’s arrest.
Maybe the Cuban security who were still alive immediately realized the situation was hopeless and didn’t even attempt to fight. That’s the most likely explanation for why they didn’t inflict any casualties.
It has been reported that 32 of the Cuban officers around Maduro put up a fight and are now room temperature.
There are more of them in other areas used as enforcers but if their officers were in Caracas they may be in disarray.
Ping to read tomorrow but it amazes me to still be hearing about Cuba all these years later.
Isn’t it interesting Obama opened the doors to Cuba. I have to wonder about that now.
China is the biggest loser. The Venezuela action showed both US military abilities and, even more importantly, Trump’s willingness to take bold action.
Xi may have been planning an invasion of Taiwan, but you can bet those plans have now been put on hold. Between Trump’s success in Venezuela and Putin’s difficulties in Ukraine, Xi and the people around him must be having second thoughts.
All the US needs to do about Taiwan, from an America First perspective, is to get any invasion put off until it doesn’t matter any more. And I think Trump has done that.
I am in the camp that says Maduro was being held hostage by Cooba and was slated to die for his country as a Communist hero like Che Guevara and Salvador Allende. Cooba was not about to let him move to Turkey with the couple hundred million dollars that Trump offered him. Those 32 Cooban soldiers who died in the attack weren’t there to guard him, they were there to make sure he didn’t go anywhere. Grabbing him and his wife was not a kidnapping. It was a rescue operation. And in return he will soon turn state witness and sing like a canary.
There are lots of dominoes rocking and on edge from this. I am hoping Mexico is one too.
That's the thing about war. War is unpredictable. The Russians were supposed to take Kyiv in 72 hours. And they almost pulled it off.
Your reasoning is credible.
Demonrats are the biggest losers. They lost their dark money source, drugs, illegal criminals, and voting machines.
Mexico is a big loser, too. She backed Maduro and all of the other leftists in the region. Now Trump will play tough on the upcoming trade agreement renewal.
She would be smart to bow down before it is too late.
Russia and Iran have been best buddies for 30 years. Iran has spent billions n billions of their petro-dollars on Russian air defence systems. That were of zero use when Israel and US bombed them and their nukes. Their fake allah was of no use. So a double whammy for these clown-fanatics
Multiple ICBMs on mobile launch trucks. . It worked in Cuba.
The Deep State and Democrat Commies!!
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