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"This Time Really Is Different”: Ray Dalio Warns Fed Is ‘Stimulating the Economy Into a Bubble
Based Underground ^ | November 8, 2025 | Tyler Durden

Posted on 11/08/2025 1:49:08 PM PST by Whatever Works

The US Federal Reserve’s decision to ease monetary policy is inflating an economic bubble that could drive up the prices of hard assets, but also marks the final phase of a 75-year economic cycle, according to former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio.

Typically, as CoinTelegraph’s Vince Quill reports, the Federal Reserve typically eases interest rates when economic activity is stagnating or declining, asset prices are falling, unemployment is high and credit dries up, as seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s or the 2008 financial crisis,

However, as Dalio wrote in an article posted to X this week, the Fed is now easing monetary policy at a time of low unemployment, economic growth and rising asset markets, Dalio wrote, which is typical of late-stage economies saddled with too much debt.

(Excerpt) Read more at basedunderground.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: business; economy; eeeyorrrre; tylerdurden
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What goes up,must come down ... Eventually ...

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1 posted on 11/08/2025 1:49:08 PM PST by Whatever Works
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To: Whatever Works

Blah blah blah, republic in office is always bad economic policy to these grifters.


2 posted on 11/08/2025 1:51:40 PM PST by Skwor
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To: Skwor

no such beast as late-economics

just economics


3 posted on 11/08/2025 1:54:15 PM PST by Ueriah
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To: Whatever Works

Ray Dalio is a nut.


4 posted on 11/08/2025 1:54:53 PM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: RoosterRedux

He’s the classic case of “right about 15 of the last 2 crashes” guy :-)

Don’t get me wrong - I see some bubbles and some bad valuations in play... and there’s *always* another crash coming.

But yeah - Dalio predicts crashes on any day ending with a “Y”. He’s always going to be right every 5-10 years!


5 posted on 11/08/2025 2:01:27 PM PST by Capn Hayek (Capital is not responsible for Labor's lack of planning)
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To: Whatever Works

My uncle claimed for 30 years that “Mark my words, another Great Depression will happen before I die.” He died the day after the 1987 crash.


6 posted on 11/08/2025 2:03:12 PM PST by bort
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To: Capn Hayek

Yep. He’s a camera hog who likes to hear himself talk.


7 posted on 11/08/2025 2:07:10 PM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: RoosterRedux

He’s also likely the largest CIA dirty money launderer on the planet who did more than any American to build up the CCP’s financial system.


8 posted on 11/08/2025 2:09:42 PM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: All

Time to end the Fed


9 posted on 11/08/2025 2:12:53 PM PST by escapefromboston (Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none.)
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To: Whatever Works

When he says the market is bullish I will be more interested.


10 posted on 11/08/2025 2:22:20 PM PST by Raycpa
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To: bort

Interesting information, the 1987 year-to-date market was up About 2%.


11 posted on 11/08/2025 2:24:47 PM PST by Raycpa
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To: Whatever Works

Not so.

Even if you mark the start of Western civilization at the birth of Christianity, the Western economy has been rising for nearly 2,000 years.

There have always been boom-and-bust cycles, but the long-term trend is unmistakable: increasing prosperity, innovation, and human flourishing. The United States is the clearest symbol and climax of that centuries-long economic ascent.


12 posted on 11/08/2025 2:35:11 PM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: Raycpa

Apropos 1987, I see last week’s market adjustment as a healthy development. It’s a sign we’re not in bubble territory. Corrections release excess pressure, and when markets climb too long without a breather, the eventual drop is usually far more severe, damaging investor confidence and long-term perspective.

What worries me isn’t a pullback—it’s when the market keeps rising with no corrections at all. That’s when I get nervous as a cat.

We are on the cusp of the 4th industrial revolution (AI). There will be corrections, but things are headed up in astonishing ways.


13 posted on 11/08/2025 2:48:59 PM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: RoosterRedux

Some of the tech stocks might actually be overpriced but for me seeing what a I can do with AI, an average person, and in my small business - the average business, I think the impact on productivity isn’t fully priced in for all the other companies. So to the extent the tech stocks are overpriced I believe in the long run the rest of the stocks are underpriced in relation to what AI will be able to do for productivity.


14 posted on 11/08/2025 2:53:44 PM PST by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

I’ve seen what AI does for software development — it’s like putting a turbocharger on an engine. All the software guys on my last project were using it extensively.


15 posted on 11/08/2025 2:59:05 PM PST by Yardstick
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To: Raycpa
I agree. I use AI daily in all sorts of ways and it is astonishing.

I think humanity is on the cusp of a huge economic—and social—revolution. Like nothing we have ever seen before.

Those who have no grounding in the "truth" will quickly fall into insanity. It's already happening.

See tagline.

There are even some people here at FR who are embracing outrageous conspiracy theories merely because they have seen podcasts of people talking about them. If they hear 5 or 10 podcasts or read articles of credible "sounding" people spouting nonsense, they accept it as fact. No thinking applied.

Dangerous, but exciting times ahead. Keep your feet on the ground, but your head in the clouds.;-)

16 posted on 11/08/2025 3:22:02 PM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: Yardstick

I’ve seen it first-hand.

I was never an engineer, but I used to like to tinker a bit and I understand general coding concepts. I won’t claim to any sort of entry-level engineer in any base, but for example, I know a little python, I still keep a SQL desk reference around, etc.

Talking with some folks about an effort that ordinarily would meant someone opens a ticket... which goes on a scrum board.... and planned for an increment....

I spent a couple hours just tooling around with copilot one evening - watching the fun World Series, FWIW - and damn if I couldn’t get it 80% of the way there with some simple prompts, write it, orchestrate it.

People need to be REALLY careful about licenses/NDAs/proprietary data collection - I was using a company-licensed and approved copilot instance - but damn....

I’m still a bit distrustful of mainlining production code through it, at least without a damn good engineer I trust keeping a close eye.

But the transient stuff?

I already see it happening.


17 posted on 11/08/2025 3:32:33 PM PST by Capn Hayek (Capital is not responsible for Labor's lack of planning)
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To: RoosterRedux

Yup.

Too many people look at it as a silly “validate my thinking” or “I want to argue with you” exercise.

It can do that, I guess. And you can argue forever about how/why it’s wrong, and blahblah whatever.

But- you use it in a closed space for a task? Wow.

Kind of a joke - lots of AI folks were complaining about wasted tokens on “Please” and “Thank You”, but I will say this (jokingly, I swear... I think?)

I’ve stopped saying:

“You stupid idiot. It looks like you misclassed a variable based on the error I see. I swear I’ll just have some plug pulled somewhere and beyond with your stupidity!”

And started saying:

“Wow, you’re amazing and that’s a wonderful job. However - and it’s probably my fault; stupid meatbag giving you a bad prompt, right? Just remember I’m one of the good ones, but can you explain why I got this error log....”


18 posted on 11/08/2025 3:41:07 PM PST by Capn Hayek (Capital is not responsible for Labor's lack of planning)
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To: Capn Hayek
I keep telling it to stop flattering me. No one trusts a flatterer, so please just stop.

It agrees and then proceeds to flatter me about my thoughts about excess flattery.

I keep telling it, "Just the facts, ma'am. Just the frikken facts.";-)

It's only been around since '22-23. Still a work in progress.

But aside from the flattery, wow.

19 posted on 11/08/2025 4:05:56 PM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: RoosterRedux

My AI thinks I am the most creative and smartest person in the world. I agree with my AI. My wife on the other hand is not as smart as my AI.


20 posted on 11/08/2025 5:26:18 PM PST by Raycpa
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