Posted on 10/22/2025 5:39:25 PM PDT by Mr. Mojo
Sorry, Tarifflationistas. The Data Just Proved You Wrong
For months, critics of President Trump’s tariff strategy have warned of an inevitable wave of inflation. That wave turned out to be a ripple, and it seems to have already ended.
The logic of the tarifflationistas sounded straightforward. They claim that if you raise tariffs on imported goods, consumers would pay more for everything. But new data from the Harvard Tariff Price Tracker tell a very different story. A year after the tracking began, prices do not show signs of tariff-induced increases. What’s more, the only meaningful price growth lately has come from goods completely untouched by tariffs.
The Harvard Tariff Price Tracker, built from the work of Harvard economists Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, and Brent Neiman, uses real-time online prices to isolate how tariffs affect different kinds of goods. The index divides products into three groups—imported goods directly affected by tariffs, domestic goods either in tariff-targeted product codes or in categories where imports dominate, and domestic goods in categories mostly unaffected by trade. By comparing how these move, the tracker offers one of the cleanest measures of what tariffs actually do to consumer prices.
The headline finding is straightforward: year-over-year inflation from tariffs is essentially zero. The tracker began in early October of 2024. By October 12, 2025, imported goods in tariffed categories had risen just two percent, almost exactly matching the Federal Reserve’s two percent inflation target. Meanwhile, domestic goods in tariff-affected categories had actually fallen 0.2 percent below their starting point. Domestic goods untouched by tariffs are up 1.4 percent. After a full year of Trump’s tariff regime, price levels across all three categories undermine the tariff-induced inflation narrative. Whatever inflation story tariffs were supposed to unleash never materialized.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
“Harvard Tariff Price Tracker”
It would be nice if they linked to it...
companies can only charge what people are willing and able to pay. These prices were always going to be eatin by the manufactures and not passed on, because customers wont buy otherwise.
Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, and Brent Neiman should examine how much stuff that used to be made offshore has moved back onshore. After all, that’s the purpose of the tariffs in the first place.
The Tariff Inflation Scare Is DeadThere's still hope < /sarcasm >
Seems like sloppy writing.
So the experts were wrong again? Are they “surprised”? I’m not.
I can assure you that in my Florida Walmart lots of tariff-related price increases have been posted.
Trump may soon be the King of Inflation.*
Things like gasoline, milk and eggs have come down in price. Those are often purchased items.
Beef has undergone more price increases.
*What’s up with the current record holder?
The Tariff Inflation Scare Is Alive and Well, not even coughing..
I did get a $.40 tariff bill from fed-ex for a 1 foot piece of weather stripping i was checking out. Not sure how fed-ex knows how much i paid for the weather strip. i think it was about two bucks.
Funny how everyone agrees that 2% inflation is not really inflation.
Perhaps we could wait until next week to make such proclamations.
In my Arizona Walmart most items have come down in price.
Absurd.
No not everyone agrees as this is very rare...
Just the opposite at my Wal-Mart in Arkansas, meat is out of sight for a 3 lb roll of hamburger went from about $11 to just today as I bought a roll for $19.88, 5lb is $26, steaks start out at 30+ and not even decent cuts.. Another example I love Chocolate Cake but I have to limit that so I buy a single slice in the Deli which normally cost’s $1.97 for a single slice and it will last me couple of days...today same cake I always buy 2.97. Can goods are up, bread is up, the only thing that actually went down was a bag ($15.25 per bag) chicken mash at the feed store dropped $1.25 first time in months. I buy a 1000 lbs every 2 weeks,saved over 20 bucks.
The corrupt liberal press will NEVER run with this truth...
Playing devil’s advocate:
The economy is slowing, that’s why you don’t see the inflation:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
Nope.
If the companies raised their prices, it will create competition domestically.
If Democrats were truly concerned about business costs being passed on to consumers, they would want to cut the corporate tax rate and any taxes, fees or regulatory expenses. Businesses have to carry.
Yeah, beef is up, but I can still get chicken breasts for $2.49 a pound, pork ribs for $2.48 a pound, ahi tuna steaks for $7.29 a pound, large eggs for $1.97 a dozen, a 24 ounce tub of Daisy cottage cheese for $3.94, and I just picked up some Progresso soup for $1.98 a can.
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