Posted on 10/14/2025 10:16:08 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
The International Monetary Fund says the global economy is performing better than expected despite Trump’s tariffs, but future growth prospects are at risk.
The global economy is performing better than expected amid a historic upheaval in U.S. trade policy, but President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are beginning to erode prospects for future growth, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday in its latest forecast.
Global growth this year is projected at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the fund’s July forecast and 0.4 points higher than April’s, which was prepared as the president finalized his announcement of new tariffs on all U.S. imports.
Trump’s subsequent move to throttle back on his tariff offensive by signing tentative trade deals and U.S. importers’ rush to bring goods into the country before new taxes took effect explain why fears of a sharper downturn and higher prices proved exaggerated, the IMF said.
The global economy’s speed, however, represents a slight slowdown from last year and falls well short of the pre-pandemic annual average of 3.7 percent.
“If you compare to a year ago, then we have a global economy that is not doing as well,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, told reporters. “Bottom line: not as bad as we feared. But worse than we anticipated a year ago and worse than we need.”
Looking ahead, the fund said the global economy would slow further in 2026 to an annual rate of 3.1 percent. That estimate is more likely to overstate growth than to understate it, IMF officials said, citing the dangers of renewed trade policy uncertainty and a financial market plunge if hopes for artificial intelligence progress are disappointed.
The IMF estimates coincided with the twice-annual meeting of global finance ministers and central bank chiefs in D.C.
In the United...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Trump is not in charge of the Global Economy. He’s looking out for the US.
Amazing how that keeps happening. It means Trump knew where the power levers were and how to use them before he implemented this plan.
When the US does well the world does well. The IMF is in the business of using US tax dollars to make predatory loans to poor countries. Eff them.
I always like to look at what is going in the shipping container space (costs, volume, etc). This chart would tell a different picture. Especially as know is the time when holiday shipments would still be a high level, plus there are those that would begin planning for their needs to get ahead of Chinese New Year.
I am seeing the direct results now of the increase in both countervailing duties, Anti dumping and a 10% tariff on softwood lumber.
Customers are buying more US manufactured lumber because it is now cheaper to many more locations.
The US lumber out of either the Pacific NW(hem/fir, Douglas Fir, White Fir) and Southern US (Southern Yellow Pine) has been gaining market share especially since the additional 10% tariff was applied.
What is being displaced is SPF from Canada and Nordic Spruce from Europe. This is because those species are now more expensive. In the past Douglas Fir tended to be the most expensive dimension framing species. Except Western Cedar. Cedar is still much more expensive than anything else.
Generally Southern Yellow Pine is now the least expensive.
SYP is so cheap that the older SYP mills in the Carolinas and Virginia can not compete with the newer mills and timber in MS, AL & LA. Which literally has the lowest log costs in the world.
So Trump was right, again?
Whooped them again Donald!
Yes trillions have been made off the tariffs.
Your comments on lumber are always informational and appreciated. Do you hear about the current mood amongst home and commercial builders? Are developers bringing in enough lots and are builders taking them down fast enough? In the good old days builders were signing contracts to take down several lots a month, making lenders and me happy.
So, the gloom and doom predictions didn’t materialize? Democrats and the IMF and America’s enemies, hardest hit by the good news.
In the United States, where the president has promised a new “Golden Age” of manufacturing-centered growth, the economy will expand by 2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2026, the IMF said. Those figures are each 0.1 point higher than fund experts projected in July and are almost twice the results expected for the euro currency area. …Wowzers. The IMF must just hate having to admit that.
I really know nothing about what builders are doing with the exception of the Boise market. I deal directly with the largest home builder in Idaho. They are very busy.
Other areas of the country are generally slowing down from what they were in 2024. Starts/permits are down in most metro areas. There are a few areas like Richmond(VA), Columbus, Orlando that are up in comparison to 2024. Almost all other metro areas are down.
We have been in an oversupplied lumber/osb market for all of 2025. Which has brought wholesale prices of lumber/osb to below cost of production. Especially now for the Canadians because combined duties/tariffs as high as 57% for Canfor, generally 45% for other Canadian mills. European mills are now at a 15% tariff. Russia is higher because of the war.
We just hit the lows of the year in September for wholesale pricing. For example, wholesale price for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16” OSB was under $6/sheet delivered most places. It got as high as $75/sheet in 2021/22.
Lumber has also been hammered on pricing. As low as 1/3 of the price it was at in 2022 at its all time high.
Thanks, great input. I’m a generalist, give me enough scattered info and I’ll figure out a great way to either “cut a fat hog in the a**” or lose my a**.
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